Tuesday, August 02, 2005

Market Environment

I don't profess RUNNING after this market so late in the game IMHO, sure you can use STOPS to TRY and protect your positions.

But looking at new lows, until this indicator moves above 20 consistantly, the modus opportunity is for the bulls, and bears are a no show.

This is what the LOW VIX is saying, not to worry. The market won't get violent on downside without a move up in VIX IMHO.

From the kickoff at 10K we have moved up nicely for sure, and earnngs continue to be solid, so we cannot say from what we see YET, when the turn might come. We are still below 2005 highs, and below top range in what is still range bound market.

Trannies quiet today, and we still have that "odd" action of the BDI. We cannot see the future, but will certainly look back when hand is shown and what we saw will have new importance.

Unless they pull a fast one, and save the negative Net/Birth for next month, I JUST don't see how a strongly positive number will appear this Friday. I will stand for a horrid miss, maybe as bad as -100K

D

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