Wednesday, August 03, 2005

NEWS FLASH

Treasury Says 30-Year Bond Is Coming Back
Wed 9:07AM ET - AP
The Bush administration announced Wednesday that it is bringing back the 30-year Treasury bond next year, a move that would help finance the national debt and should hold appeal for investors looking for a safe, longer-term investment option in their portfolios.

**You could already BUY 30 yr bonds, but now the question is with INCREASED supply, will it be met with demand? There is NOT much difference in yield between 10 yr and 30 yr, maybe .20% !!

NOT much a premium for going our 20 more years? WILL increased supply affect price?

Again, my thoughts go ahead to Friday, and wonder if I am correct about that report. When you look at net birth data do you see what I see? ONE MONTH that takes away jobs, that was July in 2004, will it be July again? or will it shift to Aug? I think this report will SPIKE volatility and send investors scurrying to bonds.

But, the technicals are not yet overbought and weekly just signalled higher rates, this we know can change rapidly.

If a recession is upon us by 2006, it would seem that bond yields would fall, there is no risk if you can HOLD your bonds to maturity, and another option is shorter maturity dates, spreading it out. 5 years are near 4%. COF BANK CD'S 5 yr yield 4.5%

There are options, or you could chase after rising stock prices hoping to sell them higher, as valuations are not the purpose.

SHould get VERY interesting indeed.

LITLLE GUY investor is historic net long, wise guys net short, who will win?

D

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