WEEKEND RAMBLE "Evidence Piling Up"

What keeps me up at night? How about a call at 2 AM that my 9 yr old son is having an asthma attack at his GRannies and the nebulizer is broken? and I had just taken a drousy pill because I couldn't sleep! EMT'S to the rescue.

I have this vision so here it goes:

The BDI has been falling and falling and the reason not so apparent as yet, but as I Have discussed before the Baltic Dry Index is a LEADING indicator and is not affiliated with any stock and is void of manipulation,one main reason I give it so much weight.

Friday EWT (elliott wave theory short term update) gave me some direction and inspiration, and here is what I think will happen.

If their call for LOWER GOLD and SILVER prices ahead comes true (though it seems like the dollar will weaken ahead because of sentiment picture, will it detach from gold relationship?) over the coming weeks and months, meaning FALLING metal prices, this would add evidence the economy is slowing especially if SILVER collapses as it is used in manufacturing.

If we see OIL finally correct and begin a decline BELOW recent trading range, it won't be because the economy is humming, and won't be bullish, it would come from flagging demand from a weakening economy.

In some respects then, when some feel rising oil is bearish, hello, the market was rising WITH OIL! perhaps at some point it crushes economy but we haven't reached that point.

What higher energy has done is rob EXTRA dollars that could be used elsewhere, yeah, for consumption and maybe maybe baby pay down debts? nah.......

Next Transports make a downward break for it confirming BDI action, and Dow begins its move to LOWER trading range. IMHO if at anytime the DOW breaks 10,000 with conviction on a closing basis even if this is nothing more than a pysch level....the selling with expand and intensify and leave the door open to test March or Oct lows.

I am unsure of intermediate interest movement, sentiment has come down good towards them, but they should move a little lower before attempting to rally in price, lower in yield.

You see my reasoning now about NOT getting in front of that Friday report? My TA didn't confirm it, neither did the top line number of jobs, even though the guess on NET BIRTH number was RIGHT ON!

Let's get with TREND, not make blind gambles, when a new trend can be confirmed then it is less risky to hop on....we shoot for SWEET SPOT not perfect low or high guess.

SOON, with bottoming bullish sentiment and a turn in my other TA going long bonds could be rather lucrative and much much safer, understand you could buy bonds at ANY price and get your yield, as long as you hold to maturity you get ALL your principle back, you only LOSE or GAIN when you sell ahead of maturity.

Check out 2 yr yields I think near 4% ! MOney markets are now CHALLENGING stock markets for performance! AFTER AUG 9TH FED MEETING THE YIELD WILL RISE AGAIN. ALL those jobs added to Disney World and Burger King cemented that IMHO.

What other area than ENERGY and HOUSING would influence prices? SO with PARABOLIC rise in housing and rocketing energy costs, how so NO INFLATION? believe what you want to, but friends, DEFLATION has a shot here.

It will show in collapsing stock prices, falling metals and oil, strengthening dollar, falling prices to attract business, rising bond prices lower yields as flight to safety comes in earnest, but maybe a SPRINT higher first to POP the housing bubble, isn't Greenspan knowingly or not doing that now? Doesn't King Midas always go too far?

Hey, the GOV added 26K jobs last month, whatever happened to Repub smaller government? Under the guise of security our RIGHTS are being taken away, and the gullable public just nods in acceptance.

Odd how many HORROR movies have come out this year? Some of the most violent films? BEAR does mysterious things.

Trying to catch up the money supply has gone vertical last 30 days, well behind Y/Y pace.

Has FED policy given us a balanced economy?

Nothing in straight line, no crash I can see, just a slosh down to bottom of trading range.

A sell off Monday would give us 3 consecutive down days, something that hasn't happened in awhile.

BIDU rise of a $27 IPO to $150 at high shows real color of investors, given the stock sells at 2,000 X earnings...... lemmings at work.

Crashing Financials and Housing Indexes will be strong sign the BACK BONE of economy is breaking.

Duratek