Tuesday, August 15, 2006

MORNING DATA LEADS TO BULL SNORTING

Key Factors briefing.com

Expected growth leaves lower annual growth of 4.4% yoy and 1.7% yoy for the core.
Annual growth peaked at a 15 year high of 6.9% (Sept 2005) and a decade high of 2.8% (July 2005) for the core.
Energy prices leave a 5th consecutive lift as seasonal adjustment lessens the July pain.
Pipeline pressure is rebuilding in core crude goods prices which reached a multi-decade high of 33% yoy in June.
Core intermediate goods prices at 7.3% yoy from a 23 year high of 8.5% in Jan 2005.

YES, futures are raging green, and an opening AM POP of 100 points or more looks likely and NAZ to 20 plus.....BUT this euphoria in this volatile and manipulated data is UNFOUNDED.

ENERGY prices remain at HIGHEST LEVELS of the year, I see NO refrain for consumer.

How did "they" do it? Energy prices leave a 5th consecutive lift as seasonal adjustment lessens the July pain. WHAT "seasonal adj"????

I am getting ACROSS THE BOARD 6% HIKES and more from ALL my suppliers, and this is AM passing on! Highest price hikes in 10 years!

I REMAIN cautious per seasonality as AUG nears a close, I CHOOSE not to jump on board, plus as GAP UP Likely, opening will hold near HOD. IMHO (a REVERSAL LIKE YESTERDAY WOULD DESTROY BULL CAUSE)

While they have you looking one way, here from CNN is reason for hooplah and 2 news blurbs you won't read:

Futures rally on inflation report Aug 15: 8:43a
Markets set for surge at open as tame report heightens hopes of further Fed pause.(here we freakin go again!) (more)
Wholesale inflation on the wane
Home Depot warns on full-year results and WALMART warns!!! (earnings have PEAKED IMHO)

AND MORE: (yhoo finance)
Analysts are worried that rising inflation pressures may force the Fed off hold and result in further interest rate increases in coming months.
The 0.3 percent drop in food costs reflected a retreat in a variety of food costs which had surged in June. Egg prices fell by 26.1 percent, the biggest one-month drop in six years while fish prices were down 9.1 percent and soft drink prices dropped by 1.4 percent.
Outside of food and energy, prices were mostly lower with some notable exceptions. Tire prices jumped 3.5 percent, the biggest one-month gain in 27 years.
Offsetting that increase, the price of newspapers dropped by 1.2 percent, the biggest decline in 13 years, while the cost of light trucks was down 3.1 percent and the price of passenger cars fell by 0.8 percent.



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