LOW investor sentiment towards dollar and bullishness of bonds are perfect recipe for a drop in bond prices, a rise in us $ and a fall in gold prices, though it appears until Iran deadline (today) passes, some FEAR buying of gold still exists.
The argument for RAMPANT inflation driving gold like in the 70's is not a valid argument, bond yields dont back it up. $70 PLUS oil has NOT produced what HIGH oil did back then, because of ASIAN producers.
Housing prices are "deflating". The world banks are tightening. NO ONE talks of delfation, barely even Precther. What we have is STAGFLATION. We are NOT in Goldilocks -land, we either get one evil or the other.
When the IMPACT of the bursting HOME BUBBLE is realized............the exits will be JAMMED with lemmings of the likes you have never seen before
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
3 comments:
hey hey old friend ! I would have to disagreee on gold, but agree on bonds. Bonds should have a correction, to many long. Cant all get through the exits on a sell at the same time, should create an opportunity. On gold, I will send you my work tomorrow. I don't disagree with your assessment, but the indicators I use, say a breakout to the upside is where the trade is. Long from 630 on the dec contract. Came real close to our stop @615 ! the low for the day was 615.5 ! I was thinking of your comments about having the stop to close ! Any ways we are in the money for now. I think you will enjoy the charts. We got back long the yen a couple of days ago, losing money on that one, but risking to 8500 on the september contract. If we get stopped out, I will still look for a third entry. I think the dollar is in trouble going foward over the next weeks. Did you notice your rule of four on the gold charts ? If it doesnt break through on the fourth time, and with a gap under that, seems to be very bullish. Not only that, but a fake out of the triangle on the downside as it approached 615. A couple days latter we are at 635. Watch the Yen for a break out. When ever it happens, it should be big. We got stopped out of coffee on the retracement down to 105.60. What do you know, a few days latter it is at 108! That is a wild market, and I learned a few things in that trade over the weeks! Talk with you soon!
Good to hear from you, hope trip is great. I AM on FULL ALERT for gold long, GDX popped yesterday....still a tad cautious.
D
Caution WAS warranted as gold plummetted below $600
Post a Comment