NOT YOUR MOTHERS BEAR MARKET

*(comemnts from one of my friends KJ, who is very smart and usualaly dead on his market and economic thoughts)

PS

This is the type of enviornment when the frauds are exposed, and the real deals shine. I can count on one hand those that understood what was happening and helped me to avoid D&D. Everyone I talk to in my life who is in the market is down big, 30-50% and counting, not to mention all the other wealth destruction people have to deal with in terms of business loss, job loss, house contractions etc....

Still long fighting fires , fixing cars and ducking, possibly pithforks and torches after my train ride back from FLa. Massive amounts of Yellow iron, rail cars, trailers all idle, as in huge, along with Jim's idle ship picture a few weeks back. So much for the $TRAN being a meaningless index no ???

I am also amazed at the calm complacency.....at least for now. Hint, hint.

Anyone notice the dow violated very important support this month, and I am not talking 2002, take it back to 1998, was that the 1998 low also ??? Yup, and the flag in 1997 also, 10 year support, gone on a monthly close. What happens when you take out 50% retrace levels of prior bull, like we just did ? Quite possibly .618-2/3 retrace, that is a dow 5 to 6 handle. I can hear the laughs, just like when I mentioned 3 digit spx.. we'll see.

If you look at dow as just 30 stocks, put up spx, wlsh same deal. And while you are at it take a look at some big tech, like MSFT, take it back to 1991 monthly on a chart, what do you see, I see 10 year flags being broken, along with economic clues.

Most tech looks just like msft chart, take that along with NAAD making new lows, not pretty. We are searching for a better economic outlook 6 months out with stocks right ?? And a price that can be supported by earnings right ??? I think the market is voting for a new place to watch the horizon, and it is lower. Maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next month, no one knows, but the evidence points lower for now.

**Thanks KJ for such dead on comments

Duratek