AM MARKET TALK

POPULAR VIEW (from sub letter writer sent in an email this AM)
"I use the LEI to back up this view. It moved up from minus 4.0 percent year-over-year in May to minus 1.2 percent in June. This clear improvement points to some kind of an economic rebound.
No, the crisis is not yet over. Longer-term fundamentals are strongly against a more optimistic outcome. But a few quarters of a shallow economic recovery, caused by the huge stimulus programs all over the world, is the most probable outcome now."

*One main component of the LEI is stock prices.

Bank lending FELL last report from prior, though Bank Reserves have SOARED, they are..just that. You have collapsing housing prices, a stock market still down 60%, you don't have Consumers fighting in a bidding war for THINGS, car sales in toilet with HUGE discounts to lure you in.......where is the INFLATION?

You have a lar and incompetant running the FED, a rigged market trying to lure unsuspecting lemmings back in and sell you their stock as they always do.....you have gov's all trying to launch huge Bond sales and yet leave it rates on the floor.

The consumer is retrenching, is his behavior changed for the intermediate term? Very good possibility and what if XMAS is a total disaster?

I can try and guess the end of this BEar market, and try to get in front of these great bear rallies, but if NOT a new bull mkt, with indexes up so much already, I wonder friends would it make sense to chase after this one for the remainder of the rise should there be one, when in your daily routine you cannot find much to be bullish about?

Everybody's needs and plans are subject to their own situation, and if you trust a financial planner explain to them what you are worried about and what your goals, and hopefully they can execute for you.

For me? I don't TRUST anyone! I think most of these folks can do a good job in a bull market, for that cause, most of you could as well if in decent stocks and mutual funds, but in a BEAR MKT the SAME strategy does not work. And I don't think any of these people understand anything else but Long Term Buy And Hold (PTBH)
The market is BELOW where it was almost 10 years ago......now that's progress?

Again today we are knocking at door of 1014 area whicg by many is close to the .382 fib of decline. We have VIX on its weekly supportive trendline. We have US $$ firming in the AM, should it rise BACK above 80.00 would surprise many,a falling US $ has coincided with stock prises rising . CHINESE market had a nice decline overnight.

D