Thursday, July 14, 2005

IMPORTANT TNX UPDATE

TNX CHART link below

New low had a rather neutral showing in ROC and MACD. Lower BB and upper BB have been playing YOYO with moving price. Coincidence the 50 week SMA is 4.197 and today's high was 4.196 ??!! Do you love that?

Weekly MACD is about to give BUY signal on HIGHER YIELDS with crossover and histograms going positive. ROC has turned up.

My guess is with 50 SMA now declining, if we do get above 50 wk SMA, the rally will last until we get near upper BB and end somewhere near previous high.

This should occur right before the next monthly JOBS DATA which I think wil NOT have the manipulated NET BIRH DATA so positive (looking at trend) to give the appearence of healthy job growth.

Bonds will quickly rally, stocks will sharply decline, somewhere between now and then will be LAST great buying opps for bonds IMHO.

Duratek

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