Saturday, July 30, 2005

SUPER BULL? Says Van Eck

From Van Eck Home page

"When the U.S. SuperBoom Adrian and Jonathan Van Eck foresee gets rolling, an American Super Bull Market will not be far behind."

How do I go against one of the oldest soothsayers in the business?

His premise is that the Bush and FED machine will NOT ALLOW anything to happen to the housing boom and understand its importance to the economy, so don't worry.

Housing seeps into almost every orifice in our economy, indeed I understand the importance.

But I am not going to ignore the fact we have reached 70% home ownership, and have had 10 maybe 15 years or more of price appreciation.

So to suggest we are at the beginning of a SUPER BULL, I feel Van Eck has his blinders on! living on wishful thinking.

Certainly there are a huge contingent of housing bears, and the strength has slapped them down, but now housing appears invincible and we have the MACHINE behind us, not to worry.

PREPOSTEROUS RUBBISH!

Did THE MACHINE help us during the Internet Craze and subsequent CRASH? NO they leading up to it made it WORSE, these invincible hands of prosperity.

No Mr ECK, the housing BOOM isn't ahead of us, it began 5 years ago! We should assume record numbers to infinity?

70% home ownership, that's a record, and nearer to an end than a beginning.

RECORD mortgage debt has led to HISTORIC HIGHS in Total Credit MArket Debt......so I am to assume this is a beginning as well?

RUBBISH!

Duratek



2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Marc:
Thanks for your blog. I'd feel better if you charged something. Maybe later?
Just listed my house for sale last Friday. I'm in South Beach and have had over 250% appreciation in six years.
Perhaps I'd be better off with a refinance and buy more gold, silver and the top three foreign currencies with the highest yield ie. AAA govt. bond of New Zeland, Aus., and ?. My broker at Evertrade is giving me an answer on the currencies tomorrow.
Paul Maxon

Marc R said...

Paul,

Thank you for your kind comments. Maybe one day I would, but it would be mainly so I could upgrade to a better website with more features.

I would also buy up on the stock charts membership to I can annotate and show my charts without using a link, this site is rather difficult to do so, at least for me.

My last post addresses our current situation as to yield. Buying some int'l bonds sounds like a good idea....bottom line if you hold to maturity you can't lose money, only buying power depending on how currency fairs affecting core value.

My portfolio of 7 bond funs to track interest rate moves has done well while providing a better than 7% yield, even that doesn't sound exciting does it?

SUper deal on your home, you could put a good deal of proceeds in 30,60, and 90 day treasuries for safety and you would always have sums coming up to put to work, where will you move to now?

You can always contact me off the site at Duratek@yahoo.com

I am very close to being where I need to be in my head to offer even more straight forward advice, it takes a lot of guts to tell other people what to do with their money and sleep at night. Maybe one good reason Russell doesn;t say buy steel or housing or whatever at a given juncture....because he knows at any time the BEAR COULD RETURN.

SO when I have creeping doubts of where I stand, I always go back to fundamentals and history to guide me, and it says not even close to a bear market bottom.

Good luck on the sale of your property and beyond, thanks for posting your comment !

D