Tuesday, October 18, 2005

GOOGLE FOR DEFLATION

And you come up with 1,280 hits (under news) and for inflation? 24,700

What does it mean? maybe nothing, but as a contrarian, it is so lopsided it tells me hardly anyone is thinking DEFLATION is a problem today.

And when deflation is mentioned, it is in sentance quite often as spoken by BOJ as if beaten.

Has debt been INFLATED AWAY? I rather doubt it, we have only added to it. It has not vanished it has multiplied by an X factor.

Now the Fed is caught with high oil prices which have fed into every aspect of economy with fuel surcharges being added to anything that doesn't put itself on the shelf, and these go on quickly but come off stubornly. The effects will be with us for awhile.

Expenses have inflated, cost of living health care has inflated, minimum credit card payments have inflated, property taxes have inflated along with housing prices, but wages have deflated not hardly rising at all to keep pace with all that is.

The stock market is deflating, not even higher than 2004 highs, WHY all the damn bullishness then? Or why the weak stock market, the trading range bound stock market?
Maybe because just as profits are peaking,the rose has bloomed, no one sees the petals falling off the rose just yet.

VIX, one volatility measure is in measured uptrend and the unbeaten string of bullish readings still intact, even as stock prices go nowhere except the next hot thing....like VACCINES for BIRD FLU "scare" even though ONE main company has gotten most of money and is light years ahead of anyone else SNY.

The market is a lot weaker than it shows, the trend is DOWN until shown otherwise.

D

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