*(click to enlarge)Been pretty boring until today, record NYSE volume, HUGE down day, near 99% down volume, a huge 64% SPIKE in VIX (volatility index) to over 18.
QID gained $4.50 (proshort Q's) and it doubled its normal volume!!! Previous PEAK volume day (was around 7.5 m shares) was near high for move (near end of selloff).
Is there a global liquidty short circuit? Will the Chinese follow through on RUMORS to tighten speculation, add capital gains taxes, rein in fever. Is it a rumor?
70 High cranes seen in Shanghai city alone.
BOJ raising rates, YEN higher, Dollar weaker, is US DOLLAR in trouble?
When a move in the markets is followed by VOLUME, in this case record volume, I don't think it smart to dismiss it. Instead of one day wonder could be kickoff to much larger decline. As my chart shows, a trip down to 100 wk would not surprise me, not all at once of course.
Today SELLING PRESSURE came back in a big way.
MARGIN DEBT, those stupid enough to buy stocks on CREDIT hit a NEW ALL TIME HIGH, yes higher than in bubble top of 2000 !!!!
Margin calls could beget more selling which begts more selling until it exstiguishes itself.
I expect a possible green open then reversal, then maybe another reversal, BUYERS MUST come in and soon to stem the rout, sellers will get aggresive again, get their nerve back.
Little guy did nothing today, dont get him worried.
Why guess, my moving averages show no cross, when they do the debacle will be in full swing, volatility will be back in big way and to stay for awhile.
Bull is OLD, on last legs, MANY may want to lock in gains, instead of sit around and watch it possibly whither away again like in 2000-2003. Many are in much better shape now, gaining a lot back, maybe better off.......will the little guy sit by this time around should a bear market come back?
I am in CASH my friends, I get a check each month, no risk, I felt best of bull had come and gone, so WHY risk it.
I know HARD to time short, so for most best to wait for bargains to appear, if they do, you will need CASH to buy.
Market MAY stabilize for a few days not sure, will be watching overseas markets tonight, if China etc does better, we may too.
I think this is severe warning shot, money fled to bonds yielding scant nothing.
INVERTED yield curve has been screaming trouble, Wall Street Shills said don't worry.
Durable goods PLUNGED over 7% today. Anyone suggesting housing slump isn't hurting business wake up.
LOTS of damage done today, record volume, I am not long are you? I am in preserve mode, live to fight another day.
Record volume in QID tells me NAZ selloff should level off here, but I hope today is not shortly forgotten should the PPT get us going again , not to worry, at some point you better have an exit strategy IMHO.....I mean who wants to be last there selling AGAIN at the lows......you NEED CASH to BUY, how much of your portfolio is cash?
Take care, I am hoping the world economy is not unraveling as we speak, liquidity and speculation got us here, and it can also unwind and take us down!
Duratek
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