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Contrarian market commentary and economic postings.
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Blog Archive
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2007
(130)
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February
(14)
- ARTICLE ON TUESDAY'S MARKET ACTION
- MARKET CRASH ALERT
- STAGE SET FOR MARKET CORRECTION?
- BRIEFLY
- SUBPRIME TIME BOMB
- TIME TO LOOK AT TAIWAN?
- 20 YEAR DOW CHART
- INTC READY TO BLOW?
- THE NEXT MELTDOWN
- ALARM SOUNDED BY MAJOR INVESTMENT BANK
- NEW LOW FOR COPPER
- "ON THE WINGS OF A BUTTERFLY"
- NEW LOW
- SWIMMING IN LIQUIDITY?
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February
(14)
About Me
- Marc R
- Baltimore, Maryland, United States
- PROFILE FOR MY 1 SOURCE BLOG: We have over 30 years of experience and the best resources available to bring you unequaled value and customer service. We look forward to helping you with your next project with our "Creative Office Solutions" #2 PROFILE FOR MY MARKET "HOBBY" BLOG I have been writing about stocks and the market since the late 90's. My record of calling the last 2 , now maybe 3 bear markets stands. There is more to investing than just avoiding bear markets, but it sure doesn't hurt. I offer NO recommendation to buy or sell equities or trade any vehicle...I just offer my opinion for what it's worth. Consult with your financial advisor before taking any actions. this financial blog is for amusement only.
3 comments:
Those two articles, this one and the previous one are insightful. When does the merry go round end, nobody knows, but we do know when it ends it will last for a while. The losses could be great enough that the next generation might live through 20 yrs of a bear market. It is hard to believe that just a 10% correction is enough to reconcile everything.If that happens, where does the standard of living in the states go? How do people recoup yrs of investment dollars in 401s ? I havent looked at a monthly chart of the dow, but I wouldnt be surprised if we are in the blow off phase right now. The critical thing is how long can the fed keep interest rates under 5%. Many say that stocks do well in a rising rate enviroment, and that has been the case over the last 17 hikes, but we came off of historic lows. I think the succsessful introduction of the Euro a few yrs back was the beginning of the end for the dollar and the US economy if liquidity is restricted. I think Ben made that point clear in his last testominy regarding debt and entitlements. What does the fed have to lose? In history they have always been at the forfront acting as a cataylst before most ressions or depressions, even in the early days of the US, when the greenback was popular not long after the revolutionary war. I think there is just to much credit like the article said to continue this. Boy when the shit hits the fan, I believe the world could suffer a deflationary cycle. The fed must raise rates, and I think they know that, and hence their paradox. How long my freind?
Emerging markets should "blow up" mid-summer - lets say July. But even then - so what. A correction of 15-20% may be painful but we will rebound. This is the most resilient economy in the world. Bargains bring in cash to stop free fall. It is never as good as you hope nor as bad as you expect.
Good points. I think there is a lot of pressure for rates to rise as demand for credit is insatiable and the US governments unending deficits.
I do not see money coming our nor slowing down into retirement accounts near term. In fact there is a lot to suggest that the next LEG UP is not far away, that a WILD speculative blowoff similar to 2000 is possible if not needed to put a top in.
Rally is becoming more selective, leaving the NAZ behind (animal jucies?)but NO signs of an impending top are to be found.
That said, I see the weekly SPX near a sell, we might get our long desired correction that is need to refuel the bull.
I do not think this bull mkt lasts much into 2008 and think 2008-2010 might be difficult years for markets.
D
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