Saturday, June 21, 2008


Last post for awhile?

Mainly because I put lots of time, thoguht and effort here, and I am not getting an adequate amount of lurker feedback, so there is NO way other than YOU leaving a comment here for me and others that I can tell if ANYONE reads what I post.

SO w/o further ado

Pressure of inflation on profits, declining consumer confidence and ability to ramp up consumption, trouble at the major banks around the world, meaning money available is ONLY ST money, needing to be repaid to the FED, they NEED investors to loan them LONGER term money at some point CONFIDENCE gets restored in CDO’s and other instruments of CREDIT EXPANSION.

I do not think too many are even aware of the Kondratieff cycle (or know how to spell it), and what kind of power it will exert going forward.

What is happening now is needed to correct the imbalances and gorging that has come before it, and normally it happens much faster and retraces back to its beginning.

How far is needed to correct this in terms of Dow points we won’t know until it is over, a shock it would be if we find ourselves challenging the 2002 or 2003 lows!

The markets break and close below 12,000 is significant and the problems created by the commodity bubble are just now being felt and dealt with.

We have WEAK economy, we have inflation, we have already LOW interest rates, a murdered dollar, so where to now…..



Art Lamstein said...

I am sorry you are stopping. The guys over at Yelnick's are going to miss you!

Anonymous said...

The Fed has used up a significant percent of it's balance sheet and what remains is longer duration meaning they have very little short term Tbill ammo left to swap for additional toxic waste. They designed their various facilities to be self liquidating so that as conditions improve there would be economic incentives for return Tbills to the Fed and borrow elsewhere. Problem is that scenario is not playing out - rather the reverse is true. So the Fed is left holding the bag on rapidly deteriorating collateral UNLESS the Fed can figure out a way to engineer a way to entice others to take on that paper instead. They must have had an endgame in mind when they started down this road. How will they unload this paper and what head fakes will they engineer to accomplish that?

Marc R said...

Art, is that from "Planet Yelnick"? Let me do this, I have 2 weeks off approx,going to kay on the beach, play my bass, come back refreshed. And JBR insightful and to the point well said.....we need to move Real Estate and instead Banks have screwed the pooch and are finding it hard to find takers of packaged mortgages...long term debt paper. Until we turn the tide on the Real Estate bubble we cant turn corner on economy.

FED meeting coming up will be important to see if they are serious in tackling inflation.

Price increases won't quickly turn around as inflation feeds thru supply chain.

Guy's at Yelnick's....Art, I will be back and make a post on SAT JULY 5th....and if nothing else might do a weekly SAT post...I appreciate the feedback and letting me know you are out there.....and that is enough to perhaps keep me going. SO please come back then and let's see if we can keep this going.

When appropriate lpease leave any comments here and there, and it only adds to enjoyment and function of the site....take it it usually happens I go away during time of change, and it has been case when I get back we usually are near where I left!

Lowry's stats from this weekend make it clear from there 100 year's of stats no bottom...