Sunday, February 28, 2010
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Friday, February 26, 2010
ONE WAY IS UP
INFLATE OR DIE
SO the Wall Street Chump Bernanke says "don't worry Im going to keep rates LOW for a LONG LONG TIME"
And that's REALLY good news isn't it? Because with his policies not only do savers get the royal screw, but home sales have fallen to a historic low, we're selling less homes than we did in 1960, and prices keep falling, and NEW HOME SALES were only 9,000 in January, and there are almost 100,000 unoccupied. And the INVENTORY of unsold homes has risen back to 11 months supply also pressuring prices.....and it now takes a RECORD 14.2 months to sell a house.
KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK, I am so glad nothing will change my mind is at ease.....NO JOBS, SNOW JOBS, YANK MY CHAIN, MOST BANKS INSOLVENT, WONT LEND, so glad we can call this recovery
Duratek
D
SO the Wall Street Chump Bernanke says "don't worry Im going to keep rates LOW for a LONG LONG TIME"
And that's REALLY good news isn't it? Because with his policies not only do savers get the royal screw, but home sales have fallen to a historic low, we're selling less homes than we did in 1960, and prices keep falling, and NEW HOME SALES were only 9,000 in January, and there are almost 100,000 unoccupied. And the INVENTORY of unsold homes has risen back to 11 months supply also pressuring prices.....and it now takes a RECORD 14.2 months to sell a house.
KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK, I am so glad nothing will change my mind is at ease.....NO JOBS, SNOW JOBS, YANK MY CHAIN, MOST BANKS INSOLVENT, WONT LEND, so glad we can call this recovery
Duratek
D
Thursday, February 25, 2010
CONSOLIDATION (5 months) OR CANARY?
NEWS FLASH
493,000 INITIAL CLAIMS!!! holy crap....all that stim, FED easing games......and we have NO recovery in employment, in fact it seems to be getting worse again (and add in all those census jobs)......where's the BEEF?
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
RIGHT BACK TO 50 EMA
(either wave 2 or B complete)
Volume on rallys as has been the trend almost all of rally continues to contract......I thinka more extensive decline could be unfolding and the 50 EMA will not hold...leading to another test of 200 which better hold.
D
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
TUESDAY MARKET WRAP
Stocks Slip After Consumer Confidence Falls to 10-Month Low- AP
A sharp drop in consumer confidence is sending stocks lower as well. The Conference Board says Tuesday its consumer confidence index has fallen to 46 in February from 56.5 last month.
Consumers are 70% of economy, so this is not good news. By this time in recovery the reading should be closer to 90 !
One of my friends reminds me this is a "technical recovery"
D
A sharp drop in consumer confidence is sending stocks lower as well. The Conference Board says Tuesday its consumer confidence index has fallen to 46 in February from 56.5 last month.
Consumers are 70% of economy, so this is not good news. By this time in recovery the reading should be closer to 90 !
One of my friends reminds me this is a "technical recovery"
D
TROUBLED BANKS SOARING
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fdic-number-of-troubled-banks-rises-to-702-2010-02-23-100440
SURPRISE Consumer confidence fell sharply this morning
D
SURPRISE Consumer confidence fell sharply this morning
D
THEY'RE RIGHT THE RECESSION IS OVER......
.....we're in a DEPRESSION!
This is current response by our Congressional saviours to near historic unemployment:
The Senate voted Monday on a $15 billion jobs creation bill that would give businesses a tax break for hiring the unemployed. Our deficits approaching GDP at $14 TRILLION...yes $14 TRILLION.
But wait, it doesn't appear the foreign appetite for our debt is enough to cover us, so what do they do? the FED steps in and prints money and THEY BUY THE BONDS! and YOU BUY the bonds because THEY made sure you dont get paid on your DEPOSITS!!!! they have rigged the game....is why stock market rises in face of this DEPRESSION LIKE BACK DROP!
SO you are trying to find yield to survive, maybe you have to also accept historic lows in yield, in face of historic debt with no end in sight.......or you are FORCED Into the speculative stock market seeking returns. Over the last 10 years it hasn't been the best place to be....hence my coining of a SECULAR (long term) BEAR MARKET....in force.
The government is going to be , well IS backed into corner, this ponzi game cannot go on forever, the FED has signalled an end to QE come March.....so they just keep PRINTING MONEY? OR THEY RAISE TAXES....OR BOTH.
The chart I showed of the housing market, after huge government intervention, has NOT RESPONDED...that chart does not lie......the hair crowd on TV may not tell you like it is....but I am trying, as painful as it is...here at 3 AM.
You may not want to hear it, I don't want to tell you...but if we stay DUMB, we will get STUPID.
The end game here, is not one of a pretty picture. They can't INVOKE INFLATION, the DEFLATION IS TOO POWERFUL.....it is EATING the money and destroying it in defaults....and if new loans are not made, real money cannot be created of which gets into the system....to help create an economy.
Add to this Municipal deficits and charity giving shortfalls.....cities mostly are under laws that make them balance the budget, so they must raise taxes and cut.....and in meantime the banksters have not stopped the DERIVITIVE TIME BOMB GAME.
When this game of musical chairs ends.....when the music stops....I expect the fun house to drop and maybe test the MARCH LOWS....you don't want to be holding the door or the last one out. The rally has been plagued by low volume not characteristic of previous bull markets....so maybe the desire to sell currently has subsided.....as most of the action comes from the BLACK BOXES...things have a way of evening out.....and cycles dont end until they have done their intended job.....and at this rate we are THE ZOMBIE NATION and yes we got SOLD OUT by those sworn to protect without ONE SINGLE CONVICTION for the crime of the century.
*6:59 update
Commercial real estate is now going to be a huge problem as deliquency rates have been and will continue to soar putting tons of pressure on small regional and community banks....the prime lenders for this as well as small business.
More from FORBES.COM "Commercial Real Estate Will Collapse"
I am thinking the "5.7% GDP" as it were was pinacle of this so-called recovery, inventory rebuild behind us. If we can't get banks lending, consumers borrowing, you tell em then how we grow the economy? HAVE they stabilized the main driver of the economy housing? There's your answer...
Duratek
This is current response by our Congressional saviours to near historic unemployment:
The Senate voted Monday on a $15 billion jobs creation bill that would give businesses a tax break for hiring the unemployed. Our deficits approaching GDP at $14 TRILLION...yes $14 TRILLION.
But wait, it doesn't appear the foreign appetite for our debt is enough to cover us, so what do they do? the FED steps in and prints money and THEY BUY THE BONDS! and YOU BUY the bonds because THEY made sure you dont get paid on your DEPOSITS!!!! they have rigged the game....is why stock market rises in face of this DEPRESSION LIKE BACK DROP!
SO you are trying to find yield to survive, maybe you have to also accept historic lows in yield, in face of historic debt with no end in sight.......or you are FORCED Into the speculative stock market seeking returns. Over the last 10 years it hasn't been the best place to be....hence my coining of a SECULAR (long term) BEAR MARKET....in force.
The government is going to be , well IS backed into corner, this ponzi game cannot go on forever, the FED has signalled an end to QE come March.....so they just keep PRINTING MONEY? OR THEY RAISE TAXES....OR BOTH.
The chart I showed of the housing market, after huge government intervention, has NOT RESPONDED...that chart does not lie......the hair crowd on TV may not tell you like it is....but I am trying, as painful as it is...here at 3 AM.
You may not want to hear it, I don't want to tell you...but if we stay DUMB, we will get STUPID.
The end game here, is not one of a pretty picture. They can't INVOKE INFLATION, the DEFLATION IS TOO POWERFUL.....it is EATING the money and destroying it in defaults....and if new loans are not made, real money cannot be created of which gets into the system....to help create an economy.
Add to this Municipal deficits and charity giving shortfalls.....cities mostly are under laws that make them balance the budget, so they must raise taxes and cut.....and in meantime the banksters have not stopped the DERIVITIVE TIME BOMB GAME.
When this game of musical chairs ends.....when the music stops....I expect the fun house to drop and maybe test the MARCH LOWS....you don't want to be holding the door or the last one out. The rally has been plagued by low volume not characteristic of previous bull markets....so maybe the desire to sell currently has subsided.....as most of the action comes from the BLACK BOXES...things have a way of evening out.....and cycles dont end until they have done their intended job.....and at this rate we are THE ZOMBIE NATION and yes we got SOLD OUT by those sworn to protect without ONE SINGLE CONVICTION for the crime of the century.
*6:59 update
Commercial real estate is now going to be a huge problem as deliquency rates have been and will continue to soar putting tons of pressure on small regional and community banks....the prime lenders for this as well as small business.
More from FORBES.COM "Commercial Real Estate Will Collapse"
I am thinking the "5.7% GDP" as it were was pinacle of this so-called recovery, inventory rebuild behind us. If we can't get banks lending, consumers borrowing, you tell em then how we grow the economy? HAVE they stabilized the main driver of the economy housing? There's your answer...
Duratek
Monday, February 22, 2010
WHAT IF THEY THREW A RECOVERY AND NOBODY CAME?
Folks, I think the word DESPERATE is too mild a word to describe what many Americans are feeling about their current situation.....and it seems like no end in sight.
If all that has been done is puff back up the banksters to give illusion crisis has past, if they can puff up their chests and lie to your faces by telling you how many jobs were saved and created by the "RECOVERY AND STIMULUS ACT" and think any kind of jobs bill would be more than playing to the camera, hope you thnk they are actually doing something......I feel your pain....what's on the menu for tonight....
What has washed thru and is still happening in the residential side is now starting to tear a new one to the commercial side, empty store, deliquent rents......bust outs....raining down on the alreay probably insolvent banking sector...either too scared on not sufficiently capped to lend....or not enough wanting the money and or who will qualify to the tightened standards
All of which along with contracting consumer loans, banks loans of all kinds.....this my friends, what we have here is not the backdrop for sustainable anything cept PAIN!
Banks have impression of health by being allowed to keep lossed off the books as mark to market was dropped by the GAO....how convienent. This helped to allow along with TRADING (not lending) PROFITS Banksters paying themselves near record bonuses.....when they thought you were no longer paying attention they stopped telling the banks you can't do that.
Not a single person has been convicted of any crime, is that amazing or what? This WAS the crime of the century....and all the losses foisted onto the American public.
Businesses, small businesses are drying up and have no access to capital, no wonder few real jobs being created.
You should have seen my chart on housing, my goodness after all the gov incentives and low rates of a lifetime have induced much of a recovery....it shows you the stimulus and other BS gov attempts to right the ship can't even bail out a bucket of water.
In the darkness, like the dead bodies shipped backed in silence from the war zone, suffering out of work, no hope Americans huddle in desperation.....sharpening their pitch forks maybe....
Autos not leading us out, housing not leading us out, capex spending not leading us out, the next great thing like the internet or housing bubble not leading us out, repairing roads not going to lead us out, historical deficits not leading us out.....printing of money not leading us out....empty speaches and health care debate not leading us out.
Like zombies or vampires dreading the light of day.....the US CONGRESS and PRESIDENT stay indoors, lights dimmed.....getting paid no matter what.
Why don't we sell some arms to Taiwan and piss off what WAS our largest creditor and get them selling, not buying US TREASURIES just when we are going to run new histroic high insane deficits? good timing....sharp thinking.
WHEN WILL THE PRESSURE TO SELL DEBT OVERWHELM any ability to sop it up? dread the day.
Duratek
If all that has been done is puff back up the banksters to give illusion crisis has past, if they can puff up their chests and lie to your faces by telling you how many jobs were saved and created by the "RECOVERY AND STIMULUS ACT" and think any kind of jobs bill would be more than playing to the camera, hope you thnk they are actually doing something......I feel your pain....what's on the menu for tonight....
What has washed thru and is still happening in the residential side is now starting to tear a new one to the commercial side, empty store, deliquent rents......bust outs....raining down on the alreay probably insolvent banking sector...either too scared on not sufficiently capped to lend....or not enough wanting the money and or who will qualify to the tightened standards
All of which along with contracting consumer loans, banks loans of all kinds.....this my friends, what we have here is not the backdrop for sustainable anything cept PAIN!
Banks have impression of health by being allowed to keep lossed off the books as mark to market was dropped by the GAO....how convienent. This helped to allow along with TRADING (not lending) PROFITS Banksters paying themselves near record bonuses.....when they thought you were no longer paying attention they stopped telling the banks you can't do that.
Not a single person has been convicted of any crime, is that amazing or what? This WAS the crime of the century....and all the losses foisted onto the American public.
Businesses, small businesses are drying up and have no access to capital, no wonder few real jobs being created.
You should have seen my chart on housing, my goodness after all the gov incentives and low rates of a lifetime have induced much of a recovery....it shows you the stimulus and other BS gov attempts to right the ship can't even bail out a bucket of water.
In the darkness, like the dead bodies shipped backed in silence from the war zone, suffering out of work, no hope Americans huddle in desperation.....sharpening their pitch forks maybe....
Autos not leading us out, housing not leading us out, capex spending not leading us out, the next great thing like the internet or housing bubble not leading us out, repairing roads not going to lead us out, historical deficits not leading us out.....printing of money not leading us out....empty speaches and health care debate not leading us out.
Like zombies or vampires dreading the light of day.....the US CONGRESS and PRESIDENT stay indoors, lights dimmed.....getting paid no matter what.
Why don't we sell some arms to Taiwan and piss off what WAS our largest creditor and get them selling, not buying US TREASURIES just when we are going to run new histroic high insane deficits? good timing....sharp thinking.
WHEN WILL THE PRESSURE TO SELL DEBT OVERWHELM any ability to sop it up? dread the day.
Duratek
BUG ON THE WINDSHIELD
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/tg548.htm TIC data from the Treasury shows foreignors holdings FELL in 2009...with the US going to be running new RECORD DEFICITS that need funding, with the FED saying it is ending "quantative easing" in MArch...who then will step in to buy? THE FED has been doing most of the heavy lifting and buying when others were not there.
This IMHO is the backdrop for a potential bond accident.
Broker/dealers have negative net worth???
D
This IMHO is the backdrop for a potential bond accident.
Broker/dealers have negative net worth???
D
V SHAPED RECOVERY.......NOT
Does the stock market accurately reflect the current or near future economic environment?Since early 90's this was in uptrend.....in late 2002 you can see how this LIFTED our economy (bubble as it was)
THEN LOOK AT HISTORIC PLUMMET!! and THIS IS RECOVERY? OMG....Bank lending is contracting.....consumer confidence flagging below the depths of 2002 lows! and Housing does not have a pulse.....how so friends a stock market V shaped rocket shot?
Backed up by NO fundamentals is why when the rally ENDS it really ends badly
or we need a miracle...hey but Bonefish was crowded last night!
D
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Saturday, February 20, 2010
YIELD TO ME!!!
*click on ALL charts to enlarge
RISING YIELDS? RISING STOCKS? RISING GOLD? RISING US $????!!!! shit economy???WTF!!! indeed...like I said earlier, what do you get for your savings??? ZIPPO....people gotta LIVE, people need YIELD.....what to do....forced to take some risk....what else?
10 year now challenging the 200 week,are we poised for a strong move above resistance now? I honestly don't see how that fits into my new all time high potential call.....end to quantitative easing coming in March, hike in fed funds rate.....no improvement in employment or housing picture, banks hiding losses with accounting fiction and lay near insolvent and NOT LENDING.
FACT IS.....you cannot have expanding economy without expanding credit and bank lending, new money is created when a loan is secured and then gets into economy and turns over.....but the MANIPULATION BY GOV AND FED have left the stock markets and commodities as near only game left in town....my goodness when the rug is pulled out of this newest and LARGEST BUBBLE can you even imagine the PAIN that will be dealt????
It's all a game to these assholes, the disgusting gratuity and bonuses paid out to the greedy MFER'S on wall street, the same banks that nearly destroyed us and YES YES YES not ONE SINGLE PERSON CONVICTED OF A WRONG DOING!!???
The rally has began in MArch and lack of convincing VOLUME has been persistant. IT doesn't meet criteria of prior bull markets I can say certain Lowry's data does not conform to any previous bull, but the selling has not been persistant enough to derail the current rally nor signal a top is in by many conventional and otherwsie methods.
We will track the rally and look for signs the old fashioned way, not much of this makes sense froma fundamental standpoint.....but cannot signal TOP using any TA I am aware of....when I can I will. BIG R at 1150 SPX prior ST top.
Duratek
RISING YIELDS? RISING STOCKS? RISING GOLD? RISING US $????!!!! shit economy???WTF!!! indeed...like I said earlier, what do you get for your savings??? ZIPPO....people gotta LIVE, people need YIELD.....what to do....forced to take some risk....what else?10 year now challenging the 200 week,are we poised for a strong move above resistance now? I honestly don't see how that fits into my new all time high potential call.....end to quantitative easing coming in March, hike in fed funds rate.....no improvement in employment or housing picture, banks hiding losses with accounting fiction and lay near insolvent and NOT LENDING.
FACT IS.....you cannot have expanding economy without expanding credit and bank lending, new money is created when a loan is secured and then gets into economy and turns over.....but the MANIPULATION BY GOV AND FED have left the stock markets and commodities as near only game left in town....my goodness when the rug is pulled out of this newest and LARGEST BUBBLE can you even imagine the PAIN that will be dealt????
It's all a game to these assholes, the disgusting gratuity and bonuses paid out to the greedy MFER'S on wall street, the same banks that nearly destroyed us and YES YES YES not ONE SINGLE PERSON CONVICTED OF A WRONG DOING!!???
The rally has began in MArch and lack of convincing VOLUME has been persistant. IT doesn't meet criteria of prior bull markets I can say certain Lowry's data does not conform to any previous bull, but the selling has not been persistant enough to derail the current rally nor signal a top is in by many conventional and otherwsie methods.
We will track the rally and look for signs the old fashioned way, not much of this makes sense froma fundamental standpoint.....but cannot signal TOP using any TA I am aware of....when I can I will. BIG R at 1150 SPX prior ST top.
Duratek
Friday, February 19, 2010
TGIF
NO, make that TGIS here comes Saturday.
Folks we may be embarking on another leg up, that is certainly possible....first back to scene of the crime SPX 1150. Recapturing on the close the 50 EMA across the board leads me to think this. and we have Monday our guaranteed rally day each week.....options expiration Friday come and gone.
I am not in mood to redo all the reasons none of this makes any sense. I would remind how the banks are HIDING losses with the accounting scam allowed by those looking out for us? (DEATH OF MARK TO MKT)
By 2nd half of this year I just don't see how the charade can continue without any REAL ECONOMIC progress and sustainability....
Duratek
Folks we may be embarking on another leg up, that is certainly possible....first back to scene of the crime SPX 1150. Recapturing on the close the 50 EMA across the board leads me to think this. and we have Monday our guaranteed rally day each week.....options expiration Friday come and gone.
I am not in mood to redo all the reasons none of this makes any sense. I would remind how the banks are HIDING losses with the accounting scam allowed by those looking out for us? (DEATH OF MARK TO MKT)
By 2nd half of this year I just don't see how the charade can continue without any REAL ECONOMIC progress and sustainability....
Duratek
WELL WHICH ONE IS IT?
You remember hearing about "record savings amounts...money on sidelines.....savings rate rising?"......well what is this then?
Futures RED on FED PM news, today is options expiration day.
D
Futures RED on FED PM news, today is options expiration day.
D
Thursday, February 18, 2010
"FED CHANGES TERMS IN FRONT OF OPEX AGAIN"
Fed Changes Terms In Front of OpEx Again *(from KD's WEBSITE)
"This is a load of crap folks:
For release at 4:30 p.m. EDT
We just made sure that anyone who was long into Options Expiration - which is tomorrow - especially on index options which cannot be hedged or traded now, is screwed. Just like in August of 2007 when we did the opposite.
The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday announced that in light of continued improvement in financial market conditions it had unanimously approved several modifications to the terms of its discount window lending programs.
Of course we couldn't wait until Friday after the close when it wouldn't hose people - instead, we timed this for maximum pain."
"This is a load of crap folks:
For release at 4:30 p.m. EDT
We just made sure that anyone who was long into Options Expiration - which is tomorrow - especially on index options which cannot be hedged or traded now, is screwed. Just like in August of 2007 when we did the opposite.
The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday announced that in light of continued improvement in financial market conditions it had unanimously approved several modifications to the terms of its discount window lending programs.
Of course we couldn't wait until Friday after the close when it wouldn't hose people - instead, we timed this for maximum pain."
"WALL STREET'S BAILOUT HUSTLE"
NEW ROLLING STONE MATT TAIBBI PIECE
DOING WELL?? hAIR cLUB fOR mEN AS MOST PULL HAIR OUT TRYING TO MaKE SENSE OF OUR SITUATION.
If above, if you have desired to actually READ IT...if it doesn;t make you angry and sicken you what will? I dont see the OUTRAGE displayed here or my readers have gone numb....
D
DOING WELL?? hAIR cLUB fOR mEN AS MOST PULL HAIR OUT TRYING TO MaKE SENSE OF OUR SITUATION.
If above, if you have desired to actually READ IT...if it doesn;t make you angry and sicken you what will? I dont see the OUTRAGE displayed here or my readers have gone numb....
D
AM DATA
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm PPI EXPLODES and new claims rise "unexpectedly" who did they ask?
D
D
ODD
HUI is in downtrend channel but has risen simutaneously with $ rally, yeah that's ODD!
There a big MACD divergence at HIGHS, but none at lows, even with COT data IMHO trend for gold has not turned back up....until sequence of LOWER HIGHS AND LOWER LOWS IS BROKEN AS WE SEE CLEARLY HERE>
D
US $ RALLY FATIGUED?
Recent commitment of traders data show near RECORD $ long positions, it stand to reason this is going to be rectified AT SOME POINT. Gold longs have eased as well and EURO shorts busting out.....not a reccomendation, this is the setup.....you can see the MACD has crossed here, so some US $ weakness may be upon us.
Most stock indexes now sitting on or just above their 50 EMA's, and we have OPEX FRIDAY on tap......I think the major move of current rally is spent for the ST.
ONE THING ABSENT THIS SUPPOSED BREAKOUT IN STOCKS IS AGAIN VOLUME
Another factor aiding recent rebound was low reading of AAII bulls, now just correcting. It didn't take but 5 weeks to crush the frothy 54% Bull reading....which fell to around 24% has risen back to around 34%.
We may be in a primary up move from MArch LOWS, but there are MANY firsts in this one which confirm to me the larger degree trend is still the SECULAR BEAR.
Everyone gets giddy about the manufacturing data that has come out but the GROSS majority of the perceived positive data was INVENTORY....quite extroadinary. But when looking further all you see is WEAKNESS in what matters......shipments,backlog of orders, new orders....again we can use the term "less weak" so for that we call it improving.
NAHB tracks housing data, and we are STILL STUCK in the lower worst readings ever produced by this indicator.
Think of the PUTRID malaise the housing sector is facing and this is with tons of stimulus and gov assistance and RECORD low rates at its back.......
Some very smart people may be right and the bull move from MArch is still intact....but it seems to me, it is an outlier in performance and its end will not possibly come with tons of advance notice for all to rubn for exits....JMHO
Duratek
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
NEVER GOING BACK HOME AGAIN
8 million jobs POOOOFFFF, off they went to here and there and everywhere but here. We got sold out on world trade, as if opening up our markets with COMMUNIST China and the normal tit for tat would open up their markets of MILLIONS to us.
We sent our jobs over there, we sent our money over there.......doesn't seem like such a great deal does it?
Are you reading and hearing how much better things have gotten? But those stories are blown up, fabricated or just plain BS. GOV cannot fix anything, they can only make things worse.
CUT TAXES GIVE REAL HELP to small businesses.....stop holding up the banking sector....they're not loaning a thin dime where it's needed.
We are in a delveraging phase, unwinding....deflating.....spending has been replaced by saving, yet we pay NOTHING to savers as interest....so many are FORCED into stocks.
Historic need for debt financing, yet near historic lows in yields....as foreignors begin to BALK at subsidising our deficits....and the need is growing exponentially......many times when buyers dont show we will print money and buy the damn bonds ourselves.
JOBLESS RECOVERY PART 2 except this time we don't have our homes as ATM machines......
Duratek
We sent our jobs over there, we sent our money over there.......doesn't seem like such a great deal does it?
Are you reading and hearing how much better things have gotten? But those stories are blown up, fabricated or just plain BS. GOV cannot fix anything, they can only make things worse.
CUT TAXES GIVE REAL HELP to small businesses.....stop holding up the banking sector....they're not loaning a thin dime where it's needed.
We are in a delveraging phase, unwinding....deflating.....spending has been replaced by saving, yet we pay NOTHING to savers as interest....so many are FORCED into stocks.
Historic need for debt financing, yet near historic lows in yields....as foreignors begin to BALK at subsidising our deficits....and the need is growing exponentially......many times when buyers dont show we will print money and buy the damn bonds ourselves.
JOBLESS RECOVERY PART 2 except this time we don't have our homes as ATM machines......
Duratek
LOOK HARD, DO YOU SEE IT?
"HUGE JUMP IN HOUSING STARTS AND PERMITS"
Looks like I need to go to the eye doctor again.........they will trumpet any little change, tell you of a SOUND economic recovery, and if they say it often enough, they are hopeful the masses will believe it.
Never mind the CONTINUED deterioration in bank lending and outstanding credit.....the gov proposes a $10B?? jobs stimulus...ARE YOU SURE? what impact in a $14 Trillion economy?
Now we know environment is accommodative, so I can't say how long they can keep it up to extent it can influence stock prices. WHAT I DO KNOW is that when this period is over, stocks will again ake their PAINFUL journey to their ultimate BEAR MARKET LOWS.
On the bullish side of ledger, yesterday was a 90% upside volume day, what was it missing? VOLUME of course, but the measures I watch were lit up.
ALL of this action taking place RIGHT UNDERNEATH of the 50 EMA, now it is declining and tends to in this position to create RESISTANCE, so....any jump out of the gate could be met with selling as the day progresses.
Should the 50 EMA be recaptured on the close, the bulls KNOW this, could be sign of the POTENTIAL for previous highs to be tested. The $ is stable to rebounding this AM, holding around the 80.00 index value.
Duratek
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
END OF DAY DOW
RUBBER CHICKEN HAS MET THE ROAD, just from technical point of view, the rolling over 50 EMA SHOULD exert pressure here......and this raly SHOULD run out of steam....as only hot air has gotten it here.
WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS, TALK IT UP
V shaped recovery, assets inflating worlwide...FED talking exit strategy, how they're going to MOP UP all the escess liquidity. Talk of China real estate bubble.
Let me sum it up in a basic argument, how in the love of mike can you have a sustainable expanding economy when the doggone Bank Loans are contracting like never before seen by anyone under 100? The contraction of bank lending continues unabated!!
Credit card balances have CONTRACTED by almost 30% !! Loans for real estate continue to contract, HUGE number underwater so no home equity, no loans.
Commercial loans down almost 20%......now while all this is going on, Excess Banking reserves soar to a new record......at least in China when they say LOAN THE DAMN MONEY THEY LOAN THE DAMN MONEY....it seems in our stupid ass system....we ACT like we ask for the Banks to loan while the FED is paying the banks NOT TO LOAN!!!!!
STAGNANT is the best word you could use for our economy. Office furniture sales have fallen from near $12 B in 2008 to around $7.4 B est in 2010....OUCH!!!!
Dont look now but the ECRI index that did good job diagnosing recovery...has topped out and been down now 7 weeks in row.....
ONLY thing I see expanding is the unaudited BS....
D
Let me sum it up in a basic argument, how in the love of mike can you have a sustainable expanding economy when the doggone Bank Loans are contracting like never before seen by anyone under 100? The contraction of bank lending continues unabated!!
Credit card balances have CONTRACTED by almost 30% !! Loans for real estate continue to contract, HUGE number underwater so no home equity, no loans.
Commercial loans down almost 20%......now while all this is going on, Excess Banking reserves soar to a new record......at least in China when they say LOAN THE DAMN MONEY THEY LOAN THE DAMN MONEY....it seems in our stupid ass system....we ACT like we ask for the Banks to loan while the FED is paying the banks NOT TO LOAN!!!!!
STAGNANT is the best word you could use for our economy. Office furniture sales have fallen from near $12 B in 2008 to around $7.4 B est in 2010....OUCH!!!!
Dont look now but the ECRI index that did good job diagnosing recovery...has topped out and been down now 7 weeks in row.....
ONLY thing I see expanding is the unaudited BS....
D
THAT ALL YOU GOT?
WILL declining 50 EMA halt progress? IS this bounce NOTHING MORE than test of that 50 EMA BREAK?D
Monday, February 15, 2010
INFLATION IN INDIA
(RTTNews) - A higher-than-expected rise in inflation, subdued Asian cues and lower U.S index futures dragged the Indian market notably lower on Monday.
India's headline inflation rate accelerated to 8.56 percent in January from a year earlier, its highest since November, and up from 7.31 percent in December, driven by a 17.4 percent jump in food prices, government data showed on Monday
India's headline inflation rate accelerated to 8.56 percent in January from a year earlier, its highest since November, and up from 7.31 percent in December, driven by a 17.4 percent jump in food prices, government data showed on Monday
Saturday, February 13, 2010
PETER AND PAUL GET FLEECED
US GOV IS DEFACTO BANKRUPT.........LINK HERE
John Mauldin "Between Dire and Dangerous"
Martin Armstrong's latest "Clash of TWO Worlds"
John Mauldin "Between Dire and Dangerous"
Martin Armstrong's latest "Clash of TWO Worlds"
Friday, February 12, 2010
END OF DAY
Very brief wrap, more to follow tomorrow afternoon, so check back.
More of a sea saw day, we are stuck between SPX 1060-1080 and it will break out, but it hasnt yet. Also trapped below 50 EMA (weak) but above 200 EMA (potential bull support)...nothing more nothing less.....is this all Greek to you?
D
More of a sea saw day, we are stuck between SPX 1060-1080 and it will break out, but it hasnt yet. Also trapped below 50 EMA (weak) but above 200 EMA (potential bull support)...nothing more nothing less.....is this all Greek to you?
D
GALLUP POLL VS BLS BS DATA
We saw today as more worthless BS BLS data rolls off the gov presses hype machine leading to what? a hopeful mkt rally based on distortions of truth? WHAT RISE in CONSUMER SPENDING ? .5%?? REALLY CNBC had field day as the bald man and thehair ran with this story.
chekc out the truth at this LINK HERE boy a virtual stampede
chekc out the truth at this LINK HERE boy a virtual stampede
SLAP IN YOUR FACE
http://www.thinkbigworksmall.com/mypage/player/tbws/23088/1287086
If you are not CONNECTED, your SOL
D
If you are not CONNECTED, your SOL
D
IT'S ALL GREEK TO ME
By Tyler Durden
Created 02/12/2010 - 10:52
"For Greece, with on and off balance sheet liabilities at over 800%, it's game over. For the Eurozone, with the same ratio at about 500%, it is also game over. For the US, at 500%+, it is, you guessed it (sorry Joseph Stiglitz), game over, but since we have the printers, it will simply take a little longer. Following up on yesterday's popular post [1]on prevailing delusions as captured by Albert Edwards' colleague Dylan Grice, we present Albert's latest outlook. Please don't read this if you want to keep believing there is any hope left for the (developed) world."
http://www.zerohedge.com/print/75153 LINK TO FULL STORY
Created 02/12/2010 - 10:52
"For Greece, with on and off balance sheet liabilities at over 800%, it's game over. For the Eurozone, with the same ratio at about 500%, it is also game over. For the US, at 500%+, it is, you guessed it (sorry Joseph Stiglitz), game over, but since we have the printers, it will simply take a little longer. Following up on yesterday's popular post [1]on prevailing delusions as captured by Albert Edwards' colleague Dylan Grice, we present Albert's latest outlook. Please don't read this if you want to keep believing there is any hope left for the (developed) world."
http://www.zerohedge.com/print/75153 LINK TO FULL STORY
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
COUNT THE WAYS
TRUCKER INDEX DRIVES US GDP FEARS LINK
Many gas stations were OUT of gas yesterday on the east coast as weather has disrupted shipments.
State and local snow removal costing millions and salt supplies very low, weather has added to budgetary woes. Cost of snow removal also hurting already hammered consumers.
D
Many gas stations were OUT of gas yesterday on the east coast as weather has disrupted shipments.
State and local snow removal costing millions and salt supplies very low, weather has added to budgetary woes. Cost of snow removal also hurting already hammered consumers.
D
SHORT TERM 30M DOW CHART
*Yesterdays rally was 83% up volume, was more volume than Fridays "test" of recent lows. We have our perameters, so one important FIB was reached on the high yesterday, as the Dow fell back from that overhead resistance.
I have drawn in one potential "S" support line on any pullback. We will find out soon if rally is part of reaction to last 90% downer or something more.
Bailout of Greece? what good from that? WHat monies being used? or printed I should say?
5.7% GDP was grossly overstated, todays $40B trade deficit will not add to the GDP but subtract. Inventories overstated also will deduct from prelimenary GDP.
Large Banks making money from their trading desks, not from banking activities which would be expansionary to the economy. The FED and GOV are behind the banks getting healthy, hoisting all the DEBTS, like from FNM and FRE onto to the people......so if anyone is looking towards this government for answers....they already chose who they were taking care of.....
...the ones who pay the bills the BANKSTERS. The American people are NOT represented in this government and more and more of US are waking up to this PONZI SCHEME
Duratek
Tuesday, February 09, 2010
THE NEW REALITY
PAYING CREDIT CARD BILLS BEFORE MORTGAGE?
Here's the "oversold" rally I said was coming, yesterday's decline on weak volume opened the door.
Heavy winter snows and cold temps putting even more stress on local gov budgets and consumers.
$ off in early trading giving some back
D
Here's the "oversold" rally I said was coming, yesterday's decline on weak volume opened the door.
Heavy winter snows and cold temps putting even more stress on local gov budgets and consumers.
$ off in early trading giving some back
D
Monday, February 08, 2010
READ BETWEEN THE LINES
Had my bags packed for my guaranteed Monday rally, I am VERY dissapointed! What happened? No follow thru to Fridays miraculous comeback?
Total vacant housing units hit another all time high, and it's said "shadow Inventory" would DOUBLE foreclosures on market.
Consumers less 8.4 MILLION of them since 2007 top can't lift us up, can Gov spending and stimulus? hardly....and a weakass spit in bucket jobs bill wont do it either, my guess make it worse.
One way or another the historic debt bubble which has burst is going to work itself out, current efforts have only stalled the day of reckoning....and done LITTLE to eleviate the problems or stimulate the market.
If businesses had enough work they wouldn't need job credit to hire. ALL our efforts went into helping those who caused the mess and they go home with RECORD bonus checks and payouts....hardly seems fair.
At same time there is little SAFE HAVEN for money, cash and some say GOLD, though a recovering greenback may suggest gold will be under some pressure....though in LONGER RUN might win out over FIAT currencies.
WE went from giving credit to anyone with a face, to not wanting to lend to anyone that wasn't already rich....to not wanting to take a chance on almost anyone to those who might want a loan not wanting to ask for the loan and take the risk....what a mess.
IN a war we voted in a new guy to get us out is only getting us in deeper....and to cost of lives and money we don't have.
WORST SUPER BOWL ADS EVER, did they fire most of creative staff in downsizing?
SHipped off jobs ever coming back? then what? Force everyone into smart cars?
GOV data doesn't add up to historical trends...we getting jobbed, not getting jobs.
*late update
Stocks above their 10 day moving average fell to a LOW 10.97%, and volume dropped today from Fridays level. This tells me the climate is ripe for the market to try to rally.
Duratek
WINTER STORM WARNING
*report in case anyone missed it. IAN Gordon and long waves
Revisit K waves and potential outcomes. Delay is not fixing the problems caused by a debt buffet that has imploded.
D
Revisit K waves and potential outcomes. Delay is not fixing the problems caused by a debt buffet that has imploded.
D
IS THE CRISIS OVER?
Paul Craig Roberts doesn't think so link here.
Market going to digest the technical damage done, I have daily and weekly sell signals, but not yet monthly. Can the market gather itself and rally with conviction?
D
Market going to digest the technical damage done, I have daily and weekly sell signals, but not yet monthly. Can the market gather itself and rally with conviction?
D
Sunday, February 07, 2010
NOTHING IS AS IT SEEMS
OK, we are firmly OVERSOLD, had reversal FRI, back above 10K DOW....and here comes normal MONDAY jiggyness....let's review where we stand.
OK we had VIX hit 80.....so we ran to the extreme.....and we ended with historical rise to rebound from near historical drop and rise in volatility.
We have had record intervention, GS and friends using free money thru their trading desks and hedge funds....BUYING the mkt....pushing it up on declining volume.....primary uptrend with MANY MORE 90% downers than uppers. A resilient VIX. Now a solid $ rally.
Supposed FED QE folly ending in a matter of weeks. Bank lending is still declining (not supporting any theory of sustainable economy) nor rebound in income or cessation of home value declines.
Commercial real estate and 2nd wave mortgage reset crisis in front of us....find out addt'l 1.2 million jobs vanished bringing total to over 8 million since 2007 top.
State budgets 100's millions in red....taxes may be on rise.....harsh words towards wall street, friction with largest debtor China over arms sales and more. A gov that in face of budget shortfalls keeps spending more we don't have.
NO PROOF anything they have done so far has worked more than either slow the decline or help a very narrow sector....IMHO $trillions wasted leaving little ammo left in quiver in a ZERO INT RATE environment. A market SPX dividend yield of just 1.9%
In a climate where majority are seeking safety and yield....and want to pay down debt.....that is exactly the one area not being stimulated. If you want to have economic recovery....give the majority some YIELD...and who knows they MIGHT SPEND IT!!
Maladjusted, manipulated...castrated......in a world where nothing is as it seems, and no DECENT PLAN to get us out of it.......with all these market anomalies......nothing is at it seems....is nothing to be trusted?
If we see the US $ and its relationship since March lows of 2009 is now perhaps reversing, the US $ is the one thing IMHO that should be charted and given some good weight as to where we MIGHT be headed.
And how about all those MONDAY RALLIES? I read where 80% of ALL POINT GAINS SINCE MARCH LOWS occurred on Mondays.
OK we had VIX hit 80.....so we ran to the extreme.....and we ended with historical rise to rebound from near historical drop and rise in volatility.
We have had record intervention, GS and friends using free money thru their trading desks and hedge funds....BUYING the mkt....pushing it up on declining volume.....primary uptrend with MANY MORE 90% downers than uppers. A resilient VIX. Now a solid $ rally.
Supposed FED QE folly ending in a matter of weeks. Bank lending is still declining (not supporting any theory of sustainable economy) nor rebound in income or cessation of home value declines.
Commercial real estate and 2nd wave mortgage reset crisis in front of us....find out addt'l 1.2 million jobs vanished bringing total to over 8 million since 2007 top.
State budgets 100's millions in red....taxes may be on rise.....harsh words towards wall street, friction with largest debtor China over arms sales and more. A gov that in face of budget shortfalls keeps spending more we don't have.
NO PROOF anything they have done so far has worked more than either slow the decline or help a very narrow sector....IMHO $trillions wasted leaving little ammo left in quiver in a ZERO INT RATE environment. A market SPX dividend yield of just 1.9%
In a climate where majority are seeking safety and yield....and want to pay down debt.....that is exactly the one area not being stimulated. If you want to have economic recovery....give the majority some YIELD...and who knows they MIGHT SPEND IT!!
Maladjusted, manipulated...castrated......in a world where nothing is as it seems, and no DECENT PLAN to get us out of it.......with all these market anomalies......nothing is at it seems....is nothing to be trusted?
If we see the US $ and its relationship since March lows of 2009 is now perhaps reversing, the US $ is the one thing IMHO that should be charted and given some good weight as to where we MIGHT be headed.
And how about all those MONDAY RALLIES? I read where 80% of ALL POINT GAINS SINCE MARCH LOWS occurred on Mondays.
Saturday, February 06, 2010
SAT CHART LOOKING FOR ANSWERS
My methods may be different than many, I use what my strenghts are and that is observation....no ONE chart is the answer, now Im looking for clues.....to at least the Question many may be asking is Lowrys right or has the mkt topped.
WHAT I'm asking you to see is that after a MACD cross UP in MArch....was BULL SIGNAL (or rally).....It is a sign of momentum and direction and on WEEKLY basis it suggested UP for prices....and it was/has been
Also and it has value because of action AT the trend line MA, the 400 WK observe the last 2 bars BOTH touches right at the flat lining MA!!
Comments on chart were made months ago...disregard. Lastly the RSI has yet to break below 50, in JUly it did, so maybe not of great concern .
MACD cross down must be considered a sell signal.....expect now a counter rally
D
Friday, February 05, 2010
RETAIL HOLDERS ETF
Everywhere I go, I see MORE AND MORE store closings and going out of business. Just like the GROSS under reporting of unemployed (by excess of 1 million!!!) for the BLS 2+2 = 1
Maybe we are just transitioning from stage 1 to stage 2 of the advance,,,and the market will be less forgiving, more selective, and the falling volatility may be behind us. Higher prices may be coming, but when you did beneathe the BS we are fed, you see how wrong it is.....the American people are getting restless.....there is a grande stirring going on, an awakening....from a long slumber....we're dumb but we're not stupid.....this is not Kansas Toto.....this is a shitstorm
Duratek
SOMETHING ROTTEN IN DENMARK
*Invention Of Lying....excellent DVD! but so was Zombieland! haaa perfect for our lying Gov stats and our zombie economy
D
JUST THE FACTS. WEEKLY DOW CLOSE
* click to enlarge Turn around you could argue was sign of some kind of bottom, VERY ST IMHO as since green...very weak reply so far to 97% downwer Thrusday....hope is all we have.
BOHICA HE NAILS IT
"The liquidity swaps are evaporating just as QE liquidity dries up here in the United States. The excess globally (and domestically) injected supply of dollars that drove assets up in 2009 and the USD down are all but gone. But the debt has a long way to go before being completely purged. The implication here is that an exogenous event (several of which are popping up every day again) driving a rush to USD will face unprecedented amplification and unwind severity because of the added variables in the USD supply/demand (im)balance."
LINK to Full Text:
http://www.zerohedge.com/print/68900
us $ IS RISING FOR SOME REASON......AS FEAR RISES OF DEFAULTS.....$ IS STILL SAFE HAVEN.
D
LINK to Full Text:
http://www.zerohedge.com/print/68900
us $ IS RISING FOR SOME REASON......AS FEAR RISES OF DEFAULTS.....$ IS STILL SAFE HAVEN.
D
SHITSTORM
Briefing.com does the numbah's
Thank G-d the unemployment rate is FALLING at the same time we are getting HUGE DOWNWARD revisions to job losses...makes sense....
Now since 2007 instead of the measley 7.2 M jobs lost we find out it's more like 8.4 MILLION!!!!!! if this doesn't blow you away nothing will....as I hear the numnuts on CNBC chattering in background.
NEWS FLASH "NO RECOVERY" and even when in GOV STATS they are BS numbers as they get revised downward almost everytime.......market rally is a lie...a CRUEL JOKE!
$ rally is REAL now above 80.00....so are we in the first stage of a PRIMARY UP MOVE? if so that would require higher prices BEFORE we EVER see a TEST of March lows......when this is all over we will have better insight as to who was ON this trend and WHO was not.
Analysis is always JUST an odds thing, past performance maybe = future trend potential.
It could get better tomorrow, I would like to know why. I would like to know how we turn around a situation of deleveraging and contracting bank loans into sustainable economic recovery.....tell me how that works?
Tell me how HIDING the defaults and declining real estate values with an accounting change makes it go away? Tell me HOW FOISTING the losses and GUARANTEES onto the American people and REWARDS those in the industry RESPONSABLE for this crisis turns this around?
I also saw a glimpse of employment numbers showing large increase in retail and temp help....nothing like creating real job growth with TRILLIONS of our hard earned US $'s????
GOV thrives on more andmore power which more andmore spending of YOUR MONEY OUR MONEY.....don't think in many ways they wont find ways to tell you here is your tax CUT...and you finding less and less of your money kept.
WHAT EMPLOYMENT KD POST
Duratek
Thank G-d the unemployment rate is FALLING at the same time we are getting HUGE DOWNWARD revisions to job losses...makes sense....
Now since 2007 instead of the measley 7.2 M jobs lost we find out it's more like 8.4 MILLION!!!!!! if this doesn't blow you away nothing will....as I hear the numnuts on CNBC chattering in background.
NEWS FLASH "NO RECOVERY" and even when in GOV STATS they are BS numbers as they get revised downward almost everytime.......market rally is a lie...a CRUEL JOKE!
$ rally is REAL now above 80.00....so are we in the first stage of a PRIMARY UP MOVE? if so that would require higher prices BEFORE we EVER see a TEST of March lows......when this is all over we will have better insight as to who was ON this trend and WHO was not.
Analysis is always JUST an odds thing, past performance maybe = future trend potential.
It could get better tomorrow, I would like to know why. I would like to know how we turn around a situation of deleveraging and contracting bank loans into sustainable economic recovery.....tell me how that works?
Tell me how HIDING the defaults and declining real estate values with an accounting change makes it go away? Tell me HOW FOISTING the losses and GUARANTEES onto the American people and REWARDS those in the industry RESPONSABLE for this crisis turns this around?
I also saw a glimpse of employment numbers showing large increase in retail and temp help....nothing like creating real job growth with TRILLIONS of our hard earned US $'s????
GOV thrives on more andmore power which more andmore spending of YOUR MONEY OUR MONEY.....don't think in many ways they wont find ways to tell you here is your tax CUT...and you finding less and less of your money kept.
WHAT EMPLOYMENT KD POST
Duratek
Thursday, February 04, 2010
END OF DAY DOW CHART
US $ has been soaring. MKT STATS....97% DOWN VOLUME 90% down days can be followed by a few days of relief rally....should not the market rally with oversold condition lookout.
Is up move OVER from MArch? I would consider that a distinct possibility, not many are calling for that, but I am getting some initial TA that shows that potential exists.....see recent chart.
Duratek
10K DOW IN SIGHT
One morning they woke up, the smoke had cleared and they all realized at once:
....they find out the man behind the curtain is a pasty flabby white dude with man boobs…..well people will be upset
China market topped in August......we got real troubles here....not to many calling a top or trouble at all....it was "BUY THE DIPS" from the experts all the way down
SMELL OF NAPALM IN THE MORNING.....will it all be OK?
....they find out the man behind the curtain is a pasty flabby white dude with man boobs…..well people will be upset
China market topped in August......we got real troubles here....not to many calling a top or trouble at all....it was "BUY THE DIPS" from the experts all the way down
SMELL OF NAPALM IN THE MORNING.....will it all be OK?
WINTER WARNING
IAN Gordon LINK HERE
THEY ALL LIE TO YOU.....it's the debt stupid......them not you. If they dont know what the fing problem is, they cant fix it....or can it even be fixed...yeah my ass a ROBUST economy with declining bank loans....
D
THEY ALL LIE TO YOU.....it's the debt stupid......them not you. If they dont know what the fing problem is, they cant fix it....or can it even be fixed...yeah my ass a ROBUST economy with declining bank loans....
D
BUYING A RECOVERY THAT ISN'T THERE
480,000 new jobless claims with a WHUMP rise in the more stable 4 wk moving average by 11,000 to 468,000....another jobless recovery....and you wonder why stocks are below where they were 10 years ago? Last nights chart looks to have nailed it.
Duratek
Duratek
MISUNDERSTATMENT
CANNOT TRUST GOV STATS unemployed UNDERSTATED by at least 800,000. PFE misses estimates.
AUTO sales weaken in January
AUTO sales weaken in January
Wednesday, February 03, 2010
JUST THE CHARTS
I've beaten a dead horse on the other stuff. market is ready to turn over me thinks.
D
MUST BE NICE
AIG going to dole out another $100M in bonuses. We are probably headed for a double dip Recession, COmmercial real estate issues are looming, the level of foreclosures are mind boggling and without gov stimulus the economy is crippled.
2010 IMHO is going to be a tough year.
D
2010 IMHO is going to be a tough year.
D
Tuesday, February 02, 2010
HAS BDI SPOKEN?
Uptrend line appears ot be broken. BDI NOT subject to manipulation.
After 16% decline in home sales we got whopping 1% increase as many dismiss previous to hype this as another housing bottom. Funny thing, not so is bank lending continues to contract!
VOLUME? I thought you'd never ask! OUR HUGE rally saw NYSE volume FALL by 24% and NAZ by 29% !
D
After 16% decline in home sales we got whopping 1% increase as many dismiss previous to hype this as another housing bottom. Funny thing, not so is bank lending continues to contract!VOLUME? I thought you'd never ask! OUR HUGE rally saw NYSE volume FALL by 24% and NAZ by 29% !
D
STEVE VAI " LITTLE WING"
Fed in CHicago puts out a national activty index and it measures the housing component and personal income, what recovery can we have without this picking up? It sits today as lifeless as a zombie corpse near or at decades lows.....
The only recovery we have had so far has been in wallstreet bonuses. The economy is anemic and the stock market may be in process of sniffing this out.....still on gov teet life support.
Census hiring may try to fool us with jobs recovery, watch hours worked. The stock market has gone NOWHERE in 10 years......we are stuck in a bear market groundhog day
ANd surprise of no surprise the market rallies on another monday....surely just coincidence
Duratek
Monday, February 01, 2010
S & P MONTHLY VIEW
TALK IS TALK, CHARTS DON'T LIE.....open to some interpretation but the TREND can be determined when enough data is present.
Getting off to ROUGH January historically is NOT bullish sign. Reversal months not a bullish sign especially as it has come right as the SPX retraced 50% of its loss, a typical FIB number.
For those of us pulling for a bullish senario, a grave dent was punched into the armour. Further deterioration would leave door open for return of the BEAR MARKET and a potential TEST of the MARCH LOWS.
I don't say bearish things or present these potential outcomes because I enjoy it or welcome it, quite the contrary. Aside from my personal views and opinions, I am a TECHNICIAN and that picture must be presented as IS, not what I wish.
The FUNDAMENTAL backdrop I supply only helps to understand the BIGGER PICTURE. Markets can go contrary to prevailing data....for awhile anyways.
I had the srongest traffic to site on a weekend in many months, welcome to any new readers that may have joined, feel free to leave comments or questions anytime.
Duratek
DEAD CAT NO MORE
STOCKS HAVE CORRECTED as the US $ has gained traction. SMH (SEMI'S) has led the way down as it also led the way up from MArch lows.
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