Tuesday, February 23, 2010

THEY'RE RIGHT THE RECESSION IS OVER......

.....we're in a DEPRESSION!

This is current response by our Congressional saviours to near historic unemployment:

The Senate voted Monday on a $15 billion jobs creation bill that would give businesses a tax break for hiring the unemployed. Our deficits approaching GDP at $14 TRILLION...yes $14 TRILLION.

But wait, it doesn't appear the foreign appetite for our debt is enough to cover us, so what do they do? the FED steps in and prints money and THEY BUY THE BONDS! and YOU BUY the bonds because THEY made sure you dont get paid on your DEPOSITS!!!! they have rigged the game....is why stock market rises in face of this DEPRESSION LIKE BACK DROP!

SO you are trying to find yield to survive, maybe you have to also accept historic lows in yield, in face of historic debt with no end in sight.......or you are FORCED Into the speculative stock market seeking returns. Over the last 10 years it hasn't been the best place to be....hence my coining of a SECULAR (long term) BEAR MARKET....in force.

The government is going to be , well IS backed into corner, this ponzi game cannot go on forever, the FED has signalled an end to QE come March.....so they just keep PRINTING MONEY? OR THEY RAISE TAXES....OR BOTH.

The chart I showed of the housing market, after huge government intervention, has NOT RESPONDED...that chart does not lie......the hair crowd on TV may not tell you like it is....but I am trying, as painful as it is...here at 3 AM.

You may not want to hear it, I don't want to tell you...but if we stay DUMB, we will get STUPID.

The end game here, is not one of a pretty picture. They can't INVOKE INFLATION, the DEFLATION IS TOO POWERFUL.....it is EATING the money and destroying it in defaults....and if new loans are not made, real money cannot be created of which gets into the system....to help create an economy.

Add to this Municipal deficits and charity giving shortfalls.....cities mostly are under laws that make them balance the budget, so they must raise taxes and cut.....and in meantime the banksters have not stopped the DERIVITIVE TIME BOMB GAME.

When this game of musical chairs ends.....when the music stops....I expect the fun house to drop and maybe test the MARCH LOWS....you don't want to be holding the door or the last one out. The rally has been plagued by low volume not characteristic of previous bull markets....so maybe the desire to sell currently has subsided.....as most of the action comes from the BLACK BOXES...things have a way of evening out.....and cycles dont end until they have done their intended job.....and at this rate we are THE ZOMBIE NATION and yes we got SOLD OUT by those sworn to protect without ONE SINGLE CONVICTION for the crime of the century.

*6:59 update
Commercial real estate is now going to be a huge problem as deliquency rates have been and will continue to soar putting tons of pressure on small regional and community banks....the prime lenders for this as well as small business.
More from FORBES.COM "Commercial Real Estate Will Collapse"

I am thinking the "5.7% GDP" as it were was pinacle of this so-called recovery, inventory rebuild behind us. If we can't get banks lending, consumers borrowing, you tell em then how we grow the economy? HAVE they stabilized the main driver of the economy housing? There's your answer...


Duratek

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