Wednesday, March 17, 2010

SPX 1980- PRESENT MONTHLY CHART


Understandable after 20-30 years of always HIGHER prices.....2000-2010 performance is not understood by the masses.
Possibly a first, at least for now most lemmings have not run after the market, MOST peculiar...pardon me, but the dumb money usually gets sacked.
Will a continued relentless rally FINALLY lure them in? then you know what happens next.....having that CRASH occur 2 X in 10 years may have chased many away from stocks for their lifetime....but savers are punished by FED policy. There is NO other game in town...my goodness it is MHO this is setting up to hurt a lot of people....
It's traders market for now, has been for 10 years, not a BUY AND HOLD. EXTREME oversold as I circled in my chart especially on monthly basis is usually a good risk to begin some longs should you have cash...like in 2009
That also requires you not pay attention to the news, just understanding that FED policy and worldwide central banks were pumping and backstopping like never before in history....once rallu got going it gained momo and had tons of doubters....and shorts to cover to feed it this past 12 months.
Some suggest it is early, all I will argue is prior 2 X FED stepped in and this time in an HISTORIC FASHION.....the KINDLING to the real world economy is no there like it was in 2002.
We also have had almost 30 years of BOND rally...if that isn't SECULAR what is? it's on its last legs.....higher rates...well that wouldnt be good.
Duratek

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