Sunday, March 28, 2010

WHY ARE SO MANY BULLISH?

For now rates are contained, but in an uptrend, breaking OUT here mightusher in arguably much higher rates and put "recovery" at grave risk.
There is and percieved a FED backstop to assets and debt, with most figuring FED will leave rates at ZERO for years if they have to. (read Noand piece I posted)
This is the paper asset game, but a bubble has been building in debt and this is the kind of recovery that creates little jobs and lasting recovery, which we ARE witnessing.
The only thing keeping it going is unlike Greece we have the RESERVE CURRENCY, so when many experts talk of recovery and LASTING ECONMIC EXPANSION, IMHO what they are really talking about is the FED's seamingly unlimited capacity to backstop the market and risk with NO END IN SIGHT.
It would NOT surprise me to see the market down the road rise to NEW HIGHS, even as overall volume has waned since March of 2009.
Short erm corrections are normal and may be here again, but as far as I can tell, the game has not changed until an ACCIDENT seems to come out of nowhere...and the smoke clears and it is seen for what it is, a mirage and the problem has been made worse, much worse.
FInancial stocks ahve been rallying, breaking out, but the value of assets held are on books at unreal values, profits are not real.
D

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