I don't care about anyone elses system or opinion, what I show above is "irrefutable" evidence of making money on a LONG TERM TREND. When you look at action at CLOSER RANGE all kinds of other trading opps long and short WILL APPEAR.
WHY cannot this SIMPLE chart above be refuted? because every share bought or sold
WHY cannot this SIMPLE chart above be refuted? because every share bought or sold
registers in the MOVING AVG, using weekly and combo of 2, back testing....it does excellent job catching major moves....because it takes a lot to BEND them CHANGE BOTH their direction......SO WHAT you dont catch THE BOTTOM or THE TOP, you get MEAT of move....Trend followers make the most money of all traders (see Trend Following by Michael W Covel)
Using the 4 MOMO indicators RSI , CCI and MACD or TRIX we see EXTRME readings at bottom, I combine these with the (FEAR) I had double bottom reading in March of 2009...as I said, my own emotions and failing business kept me cautious....well til this very day...I decided I "couldn't afford" to lose....but I was wrong...and I was right.
To TREND FOLLOW, once you decide this may work, you MUST TAKE EVERY SIGNAL, you never know which one is THE SIGNAL so surely NO SYSTEM IS PERFECT, and even the 20/50 can CHOP YOU....so you lose a bit here and there....but over the longer haul you kick ass...again above is irrefutable action above and BELOW the 2 MA's I chose to use here....further refinement is possible....I wanted to keep it KISS. (trend following requires some UGLY drawdowns and may not be for everyone)
I dont care who agrees or disagrees with me, I only offer this as my opinion, sharing my experience. I am known as a BEAR ONLY...though I made my fortunes during BULL MARKETS.......It has taken me much searching, and NEVER GIVING UP over last 10 years to understand WHY I couldn't agree with my own bullish signals.....and this is 100% emotional battle....the HARDEST HANDICAP to overcome...and I don't know if I have even now, accomplished that.
My reactions to FEAR, are more SURE of themselves, so maybe since 2000 I am just set up to find those turns....and it has cost me the 2 other ones that I MUST be willing to partake in to take my place as a GREAT trader/investor.....as I will NEVER just let the pile ride....no matter what.....so conquering my own fear and trusting my own TA ability and using what I have worked so hard to understand....the last piece, the hardest piece.
NO ONE can show ANY chart of current market action, that says any top is here.....it takes a change in course to MA'S to confirm anything, all else is just noise and opinion.....still to which I am open to consider.....and find interesting, but it doesn't trump this.
This style is for BULK of my money, the little daily/weekly swings WITHIN TREND is whole other strategy.
Using the 4 MOMO indicators RSI , CCI and MACD or TRIX we see EXTRME readings at bottom, I combine these with the (FEAR) I had double bottom reading in March of 2009...as I said, my own emotions and failing business kept me cautious....well til this very day...I decided I "couldn't afford" to lose....but I was wrong...and I was right.
To TREND FOLLOW, once you decide this may work, you MUST TAKE EVERY SIGNAL, you never know which one is THE SIGNAL so surely NO SYSTEM IS PERFECT, and even the 20/50 can CHOP YOU....so you lose a bit here and there....but over the longer haul you kick ass...again above is irrefutable action above and BELOW the 2 MA's I chose to use here....further refinement is possible....I wanted to keep it KISS. (trend following requires some UGLY drawdowns and may not be for everyone)
I dont care who agrees or disagrees with me, I only offer this as my opinion, sharing my experience. I am known as a BEAR ONLY...though I made my fortunes during BULL MARKETS.......It has taken me much searching, and NEVER GIVING UP over last 10 years to understand WHY I couldn't agree with my own bullish signals.....and this is 100% emotional battle....the HARDEST HANDICAP to overcome...and I don't know if I have even now, accomplished that.
My reactions to FEAR, are more SURE of themselves, so maybe since 2000 I am just set up to find those turns....and it has cost me the 2 other ones that I MUST be willing to partake in to take my place as a GREAT trader/investor.....as I will NEVER just let the pile ride....no matter what.....so conquering my own fear and trusting my own TA ability and using what I have worked so hard to understand....the last piece, the hardest piece.
NO ONE can show ANY chart of current market action, that says any top is here.....it takes a change in course to MA'S to confirm anything, all else is just noise and opinion.....still to which I am open to consider.....and find interesting, but it doesn't trump this.
This style is for BULK of my money, the little daily/weekly swings WITHIN TREND is whole other strategy.
My whole reasoning for keeping this blog going to HELP PEOPLE, I don't know who is reading....all different levels. maybe most don't care for the charts, and come to read my rants....I try to combine the 2, to deliver my message.
I will grow and learn right here, and share as I go.....FWIW...and you know its all MHO....don't do anything based on what I say or show, consult with your experts first, do what YOU think is best, I am only trying gto open your minds and maybe show somethig ro say something you hadn't considered.
I also share what I learn from some of the best subscription services available....some ONLY follow supply and demand, doesn't in the end, that data trump all opinion?
I hope you continue to find my blog interesting and helpful and you see I'm not JUST A BEAR...and tell others, share my link.
We can continue to talk about how in the end, we will all grab our ankles.....BUT WHILE THE GETTING IS GOOD, while we can SPOT A STRONG TREND.....let's make some money too!
AFter what I see and read this weekend, I am MORE convinced a nasty SHAKE OUT is about to begin....as long as it doesn't go past 10% move or change our MA's as I will monitor....the CYCLICAL (YES) will, should continue, maybe to next PHASE as we have evidence a TRANSITION PHASE is upon us.....
Remember we have our dicussions abouth the FED, rates, false economy, etc, but when taking OUT emotion and opinion based on fundamentals....our goal is to observe and learn from MARKET ACTION!
Duratek
1 comment:
No need to apologise for being a bear. Nice charts BTW. I am glad you take the time for this blog. Very nice free info.
Trying to warn the general public is a losing battle at least in my experience. Most people spend more time agonising over a few dollars difference between TVs or Laptops or jeans while hundreds or thousands of dollars are lost in their 401k from the age old "buy and hold" and "dollar cost averaging" not to mention inflation. The average American does not understand inflation and even most "smart" people dont either. The more I try to warn the more friends I lose.
Anyways I think you are climbing up the wrong tree here. Why are you hell bent on investing most of your hard earned money in a heavily indebted country?
http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/07/how-long-and-how-fast-will-we.html
http://www.uprofish.com/2010/02/the-inscrutable-japanese-debt/
you can see what happened in Japan. As the private sector was reducing debt the govt was ramping up debt. Sound familiar?
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/debt_and_deleveraging/index.asp
If you look at resource rich countries like Australia and Canada you willl notice they hace much lower public (govt) debt. However ponzi games are in full swing in both countries. Private sector debt is exploding thanks to real estate boom. Once the real estate crashes both of their govts will take on the resposibility of taking on more debt! Even so one can argue that investing in good dividend paying companies of Canada and Australia on good market corrections should be better then USA. Also you will be paid interest/dividends in currencies that are not going to blow up. Compare that to euro, yen or US dolar and you see my reasoning.
Look up the Mckinsey report in full and see that private and govt debt are reasonable in emerging markets. So they are a strong buy on serious corrections and one can argue they are "buy and hold" for decades to come. The numbers are from 2010 jan so probably chinese debt will be higher due to their recent "stimulus".
So yes I understand your argument that you will get out of US markets when the moving averages give you a sell signal. But my argument is that maybe you dont have to play this game of currency devaluation. (Price the DOW or S&P500 in anything other than US dollar and you can see how retarded our markets are)
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