Thursday, June 30, 2011
GOLD vs NATGAS
D
SPX TREND LINE
CLICK TO ENLARGEThere hasn't been a 4 day move like this since Dec bottom and rally to May highs.
EVERY MGR is throwing in the towel of caution.....PMI risies? give me a break.....428,000 claims 2.5 years PLUS into recovery, chomp on that, mkt can do what it wants.
HIGHER it goes on flimsy circumstances, the harder it will fall.
VIX 16, what me worry?
10 Year breaking out in yield above 200 SMA. Money fleeing bonds into stocks because of GROWING STRENGTH in economy, and or fear of end of QE2?
RUT is small cap index, and its run up to downtrend line formed from top and lower lows
....decision time.
S and P 500 has similar trend line action.....boy I guess what was there to worry about?
WHAT PASSES FOR NEWS
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks were headed for a fourth day of gains Thursday, as investors continued to cheer Greece's steps toward securing an aid package and awaited an implementation vote.
A weekly report on jobless claims, which showed that fewer Americans filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week, could help set the tone.
it dropped by 1,000 ! stil at 428K I KNOW they think avg Joe is a dumbass
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
MARKET GOT GREASED
ANother day in the Greek tradegy, but as every word leaked out of those hollowed chambers..."A DEAL IS STRUCK FOR MORE AUSTERITY...." yeah we need the $12 B Euros......don't pay any attention to that crowd rioting in the streets. And they fixed NOTHING, more can kicking.
Then we get to do it all over again in August, as that's all the further this bone will go...and we can cheer again.
And here at home, get ready for the nerve wrenching, gut busting worry about? DEBT CEILING!!! YES....oh my g-d will they raise it in time????? what horror, what suspense..what will happen, will they let the ceiling fall? will they raise it??? HOW HIGH???
I'm gonna go get a shot of WHISKEY and see you tomorrow...surely another bullet to dodge....mountain out of mole hill to make excuse for continued rally.
My 60M chart says rally about done, the daily chart says there is more room above...NO WAY ANY BEAR is in with both feet....
Duratek
Then we get to do it all over again in August, as that's all the further this bone will go...and we can cheer again.
And here at home, get ready for the nerve wrenching, gut busting worry about? DEBT CEILING!!! YES....oh my g-d will they raise it in time????? what horror, what suspense..what will happen, will they let the ceiling fall? will they raise it??? HOW HIGH???
I'm gonna go get a shot of WHISKEY and see you tomorrow...surely another bullet to dodge....mountain out of mole hill to make excuse for continued rally.
My 60M chart says rally about done, the daily chart says there is more room above...NO WAY ANY BEAR is in with both feet....
Duratek
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
GREEK TRAGEDY
It’s Groundhog Day In Greece, And It Will Be For A While
http://blogs.forbes.com/steveschaefer/2011/06/28/its-groundhog-day-in-greece-and-it-will-be-for-a-while/ Haven't we been here before? Cover via Amazon
“I’m afraid Greece will be like the movie Groundhog Day,” said Bank of America Merrill Lynch currency strategist Paresh Upadhyaya, but this time around the scenario is going to repeat itself much sooner than a year down the road. Assuming this week’s vote in the Greek Parliament passes the austerity package, Upadhyaya says the next reevaluation from the market could come in August, with Prime Minister Papandreou having suggested he would like to call a referendum on further austerity in September.
Greece may move from the front to the back for a time, or go “from white hot to red hot,” Upadhyaya acknowledges, but it won’t be off the stage or the burner for very long.
CONFIDENCE?
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in May, decreased again in June. The Index now stands at 58.5 (1985=100), down from 61.7 in May. The Present Situation Index decreased to 37.6 from 39.3. The Expectations Index declined to 72.4 from 76.7 last month.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for June’s preliminary results was June 16, 2011.
Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: “This month’s decline in consumer confidence was driven by a less favorable assessment of current conditions and continued pessimism about the short-term outlook. Consumers rated both current business and labor market conditions less favorably than in May, and fewer consumers than last month foresee conditions improving over the next six months. Inflation fears eased considerably in June, but concerns about income prospects increased. Given the combination of uneasiness about the economic outlook and future earnings, consumers are likely to continue weighing their spending decisions quite carefully.”
Consumers’ appraisal of present conditions was less favorable than in May. Those claiming business conditions are “good” remained the same at 14.3 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” increased to 38.0 percent from 37.2 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the job market was also less favorable. Those stating jobs are “hard to get” increased to 43.8 percent from 43.5 percent, while those stating jobs are “plentiful” decreased to 5.2 percent from 5.7 percent.
TALE OF 2 HEADLINES
BUT
"Case Shiller falls 3.9%" ???
We're trapped between a trading range, 1295 above 1260 ish below....Greece this Greece that. Debt ceiling this.....don't worry, they can print more and raise the ceiling, isn't that great?
I am involved in multiple projects, new business since leaving company of 30 years, and working on a better trading platform with observable back tested signals....and walking my dog...I may alter when I post....more later....please stay with me....
D
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Friday, June 24, 2011
ITS ALL ABOUT GREECE?
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf only one direction...
Greek leaders reached an agreement with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund on another round of tax hikes and spending cuts, Reuters reported.
The deal was taken as a positive on a day otherwise dominated by the sinking prospects for U.S. growth and policymakers' latest act of desperation, the release of oil reserves at a time when there is no supply shock. Stocks trimmed their losses after earlier falling as much as 2%.
But it is easy to see that the agreement reached Thursday is just the first of many hoops that the save-the-euro crowd must jump through.
Greece, after all, has a budget deficit, a contracting economy and more than 300 billion euros ($425 billion) in debt. This is not the idea combination."
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/23/walking-the-greek-tightrope/?iid=HP_LN
Greek leaders reached an agreement with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund on another round of tax hikes and spending cuts, Reuters reported.
A soaring moment
But it is easy to see that the agreement reached Thursday is just the first of many hoops that the save-the-euro crowd must jump through.
Greece, after all, has a budget deficit, a contracting economy and more than 300 billion euros ($425 billion) in debt. This is not the idea combination."
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/23/walking-the-greek-tightrope/?iid=HP_LN
Thursday, June 23, 2011
KISS OFF 200SMA
If you don't go with the flow and gamers, you will probably keep losing. Sentiment needs to be worked off.....a bottom of some sort may havebeen put in, at least we know where to look
D
PERSISTENT
"A downbeat assessment of the U.S. economy from the Federal Reserve hit global stocks Thursday, while the euro faltered ahead of a meeting of EU leaders where Greece's debt troubles are likely to dominate talks.
Market sentiment, which is fragile ahead of next Tuesday's crucial parliamentary vote in Greece on more austerity cuts, was knocked by a warning from Fed chief Ben Bernanke that the problems plaguing the U.S. economy "may be stronger and more persistent" than originally thought."
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126768470
Market sentiment, which is fragile ahead of next Tuesday's crucial parliamentary vote in Greece on more austerity cuts, was knocked by a warning from Fed chief Ben Bernanke that the problems plaguing the U.S. economy "may be stronger and more persistent" than originally thought."
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126768470
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
UNDERSTANDING THE VIX
credit to poster DEW
Duratek
"I saw a lot of people possibly misinterpreting today's action in the
VIX. Primarily this is because very few people actually understand what
the VIX is or how it is calculated.
The phrase "fear index" is
used to describe the VIX, and while it is true that as the markets fall
the VIX will generally rise, the VIX calculation has nothing to do with
fear (obviously) and everything to do with how deep out of the money
option buyers are going. The part people forget is that it works both
ways. As the VIX bottoms and rises, people begin going deeper and deeper
out of the money on puts. As the VIX begins to peak, you see sizeable
acceleration in the VIX and option traders reverse and sell deeper out
of the money puts or buy deeper out of the money calls.
Therefore,
large spikes in the VIX like you saw today might have been people
loading up massively on out of the money calls, yet everyone is looking
at is as bearish. It is unfortunate that people don't understand the
VIX."
VIX. Primarily this is because very few people actually understand what
the VIX is or how it is calculated.
The phrase "fear index" is
used to describe the VIX, and while it is true that as the markets fall
the VIX will generally rise, the VIX calculation has nothing to do with
fear (obviously) and everything to do with how deep out of the money
option buyers are going. The part people forget is that it works both
ways. As the VIX bottoms and rises, people begin going deeper and deeper
out of the money on puts. As the VIX begins to peak, you see sizeable
acceleration in the VIX and option traders reverse and sell deeper out
of the money puts or buy deeper out of the money calls.
Therefore,
large spikes in the VIX like you saw today might have been people
loading up massively on out of the money calls, yet everyone is looking
at is as bearish. It is unfortunate that people don't understand the
VIX."
Many BEARS misinterpreted the VIX back in 2002/2003 suggesting a LOW VIX showed complacency, lack of fear...so they kept shorting. WELL I ASK YOU how will the market fall if there is a "lack of fear"? It is only when the VIX falls to very low levels and reverses into a rising TREND do you have this indicator telling you more and more traders are buying out of the money puts and swinging more cautious, pessimistic....increasing chances of a selloff.
Extreme readings like that in late 2008 of 80.....show sellers exhaustion and were precursors to forming a IT and LT bottom.
A break of 1295 area, we are HERE, would suggest the market is going to attack levels near or even its rally highs of 1370. Remember it doesn't matter what is going on in the REAL WORLD....until it does.
Duratek
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
ALL IS KNOWN
At this point betting on a bounce off the 200 MA was solid strategy for a trade. More importantly have we put in an IMPORTANT bottom? Is the correction over?
At this point the jury is out, markets work off oversold conditions and overbought all the time and continue the trends. What we have seen like yesterday is not convicning with 60% upside volume, not exactly a declaration of conviction.
Upside targets may be much higher, but immediately ahead is 1294 region. WED is FED rate announcement.
Like the bailouts it isn't likely the US doesn't raise DEBT CEILING or Greece doesn't get some kind of additional funding,bailout.
D
At this point the jury is out, markets work off oversold conditions and overbought all the time and continue the trends. What we have seen like yesterday is not convicning with 60% upside volume, not exactly a declaration of conviction.
Upside targets may be much higher, but immediately ahead is 1294 region. WED is FED rate announcement.
Like the bailouts it isn't likely the US doesn't raise DEBT CEILING or Greece doesn't get some kind of additional funding,bailout.
D
Monday, June 20, 2011
Sunday, June 19, 2011
CURRENT BEARISHNESS MANY SAY POINT TO STOCK BOTTOM!??
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Why-Wall-Street-still-says-apf-1669013056.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
"Among the 9,015 analyst recommendations on S&P 500 stocks available today, only 300 are to sell, or 3.3 percent, according to data provider FactSet. That's the same proportion from a month earlier when the economy was considered to be in better shape. All else being equal, you want to sell if you think profit growth could slow.
Some analyst predictions that might make you scratch your head:
-- Profits will leap in the second quarter. For April through June, analysts expect that companies in the S&P 500 index will post $23.90 in operating profits per share, four pennies less than their estimate at the end of May, according to an S&P survey. If that happens, companies will earn 15 percent more than in last year's second quarter.
-- Record profits next quarter. For the three months ending Sept. 30, S&P says analysts see operating profits hitting $25.09 per share. That would be a higher than any quarter yet, beating results from the second quarter of 2007. Back then the economy was growing twice as fast and the unemployment rate was half what it is today.
-- A blockbuster year, followed by another. For all four quarters of 2011, analysts estimate that S&P 500 profits will hit a record $97.86 per share, surpassing by $10 the previous record for any year, set in 2006. Then, they insist, profits will jump another 14 percent to $111.82 per share in 2012.
S&P's Silverblatt thinks many analysts will eventually lower their estimates. He notes that most prefer to wait for corporate executives to hint that they should cut estimates before doing it. But many companies appear to be waiting until they announce second quarter earnings to guide estimates down. That won't be until at least mid-July."
Add a LOW VIX during month long selloff......at least put some doubt on a bottom formed by excessive pessimism.
D
THIS CAN'T BE GOOD.
D
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Friday, June 17, 2011
Thursday, June 16, 2011
LOOKING FOR BOTTOM IN ALL THE WRONG PLACES?
Maybe this new leg in rally is just slow getting started. The whole trading world is watching 200 MA and 1249, in the futures pits a little dif number.
AFter the series of 90% down volume days, fervent bottoms calls were coming from all corners and every THOM, DICK AND HAIRY CNBS could muster.
VIX ticked up a bit and I am still not convinced we are washed enough, to where it is safe to venture in......so many stocks are rolling over.
OH BOY maybe greece will get another bailout package, so the banks that gambled can also get bailed out...again.
DO we have a sustainable recovery, that IS going to create jobs, so the homes can be bought and we can get rocking again? how many weeks above 400K in claims now? 2.5 years into this mess?
D
AFter the series of 90% down volume days, fervent bottoms calls were coming from all corners and every THOM, DICK AND HAIRY CNBS could muster.
VIX ticked up a bit and I am still not convinced we are washed enough, to where it is safe to venture in......so many stocks are rolling over.
OH BOY maybe greece will get another bailout package, so the banks that gambled can also get bailed out...again.
DO we have a sustainable recovery, that IS going to create jobs, so the homes can be bought and we can get rocking again? how many weeks above 400K in claims now? 2.5 years into this mess?
D
RIMM FALLS IN AFTER HOURS
RIM Falls 15%: FYQ1 Rev, Q2 View Miss; Cuts Year View; Plans Job Cuts, Share Buybackat Barrons.com(Thu 5:24PM EDT)
PIVOT POINTS AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ST BOTTOM
Breaks of 200 and 1249 might change that. 50 is bending down now and should also provide Resistance to any rise that gets that far.....the market will tip its hand....we will be ready....
D
WHAT RATES DO IN A "REAL" RECOVERY
ABOVE is today, just give me my money back, rates continue in declining pattern of fear.
Duratek
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
NEW YORK FED INDEX FALTERS SWAMPING INDEX FUTURES
http://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.html
"The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers deteriorated in June. The general business conditions index slipped below zero for the first time since November of 2010, falling twenty points to -7.8. The new orders and shipments indexes also posted steep declines and fell below zero. The index for number of employees dropped fifteen points to 10.2."
"The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers deteriorated in June. The general business conditions index slipped below zero for the first time since November of 2010, falling twenty points to -7.8. The new orders and shipments indexes also posted steep declines and fell below zero. The index for number of employees dropped fifteen points to 10.2."
PULLBACK AT THE OPEN
Futures indicate a weak open after yesterdays romp which fell short of a 90% upside day at 87%. Volume did not expand on the rally.
There are TOO many headwinds out there to get TOO bullish, but if you watch CNBS and their Rube guests you would figure that there is not much to worry about and we're headed for another record in corporate profits.
STill , one stiff chortled that sooner or later the labor market would kick in, he doesnt tell you this is the weakest recovery on record, nor do those hairs sitting their smiling EVER challenge a single guest, rather they bring in some smiling Jack and make fun of people like Meredith Whitney and mock her calls, especially since she sin't there to defend her calls.
Have we done enough on the SELL SIDE to set up IT buying opps? Yesterday was a good start but 1294 could be good resistance and none of the issues in the real world are any closer to being resolved.
Data up in 6 minutes, Consumer Confidence also on tap...should be interesting day, good luck to all.
D
There are TOO many headwinds out there to get TOO bullish, but if you watch CNBS and their Rube guests you would figure that there is not much to worry about and we're headed for another record in corporate profits.
STill , one stiff chortled that sooner or later the labor market would kick in, he doesnt tell you this is the weakest recovery on record, nor do those hairs sitting their smiling EVER challenge a single guest, rather they bring in some smiling Jack and make fun of people like Meredith Whitney and mock her calls, especially since she sin't there to defend her calls.
Have we done enough on the SELL SIDE to set up IT buying opps? Yesterday was a good start but 1294 could be good resistance and none of the issues in the real world are any closer to being resolved.
Data up in 6 minutes, Consumer Confidence also on tap...should be interesting day, good luck to all.
D
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
ONE DAY WONDER OR ? START OF SOMETHING
Today was 80% plus upside volume but not 90%. Several 80% back to back days might tilt in favor of buills but lots of stuff swirling around and there have been no PANIC selling days with ramped up VIX, in fact this entire decline didnot show a VIX 20 or higher....for record I'm in VLO since the AM, am holding overnight.
Reuters) - Valero Energy Corp (VLO.N) Chief Executive Bill Klesse said the company's 287,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Port Arthur, Texas, refinery would be running "basically full out" by the weekend.
The refinery has been running at minimal rates since a June 6 lightning strike knocked the plant's coking unit, which forced the shutdown of a crude unit at the refinery.
"We do have a big motor that is being replaced at Port Arthur, but by this weekend, we will be running basically full out," Klesse told Reuters following a ceremony at Valero's headquarters in San Antonio. (Reporting by Jim Forsyth; Writing by Erwin Seba)
Duratek
STEPPING IT UP
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_usa_debt
"The Biden group has stepped up the pace of its talks and plans to meet three times this week.
Obama and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, want the group to complete its work by July 4 in order to give them plenty of time to hammer out a final deal and get it passed through the House and the Senate well before the August 2 deadline.
As negotiators weigh painful cuts in annual spending and benefit programs, their task could be complicated by the need to weave in measures to stimulate the economy.
Recent data indicate the country is still struggling to emerge from the deepest downturn since the Great Depression, and the unemployment rate ticked up last month to 9.1 percent.
Washington has few tools left to spur faster job growth as the Federal Reserve's sweeping bond-buying program winds down and Congress has no appetite for additional fiscal stimulus.
Still, both parties are eager to show voters they are taking steps to spur job creation."
"The Biden group has stepped up the pace of its talks and plans to meet three times this week.
Obama and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, want the group to complete its work by July 4 in order to give them plenty of time to hammer out a final deal and get it passed through the House and the Senate well before the August 2 deadline.
As negotiators weigh painful cuts in annual spending and benefit programs, their task could be complicated by the need to weave in measures to stimulate the economy.
Recent data indicate the country is still struggling to emerge from the deepest downturn since the Great Depression, and the unemployment rate ticked up last month to 9.1 percent.
Washington has few tools left to spur faster job growth as the Federal Reserve's sweeping bond-buying program winds down and Congress has no appetite for additional fiscal stimulus.
Still, both parties are eager to show voters they are taking steps to spur job creation."
REASON GIVEN FOR RALLY
"NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil is above $98 per barrel on the heels of a better-than-expected retail sales report and a broad rally on Wall Street.
The government reported Tuesday that retail sales slipped 0.2 percent last month, the first decline in nearly a year, as Americans bought fewer cars. The report still beat analysts' expectations. Stocks and oil rallied after the report came out...."
IS this really true?
The government reported Tuesday that retail sales slipped 0.2 percent last month, the first decline in nearly a year, as Americans bought fewer cars. The report still beat analysts' expectations. Stocks and oil rallied after the report came out...."
IS this really true?
Treasuries Under Pressure Amid Easing Economic Concerns
4 minutes ago ino.com
With economic data from the U.S. and China easing recent concerns about the outlook for the global economy, treasuries are seeing notable weakness in morning trading on Tuesday. The upward move has lifted the ten-year yield back above the 3 percent level, with the yield climbing further off the six-month closing low it set last Wednesday.
DATA SHOWS INFLATION DISSAPEARED
Sue it has, and funny thing is many vendors are raising prices but PPI shows little of that, it is worthless BS data.
FUTURES SCREAMING GREEN perhaps a triple digit gap up, will there be sustainable REAL DEMAND behind it?
I was not at computer yesterday, but the action premkt seems to be saying, the black boxes consider lows of 1262 on SPX close enough.....IMHO 1294 does not break on this "rally" at end of the day we will see demand PICKING up or we wont....in the form of 90% upside volume.
To trade off DATA or news is useless and fruitless and usually leads to losses, you trade off areas of supply and demand, support and resistance. CAN YOU see where the volume pockets are? The pros can....and they go here http://www.marketdelta.com/ *(I have a friend that has spent years working with this data, he's a very smart guy and intuitive trader....and he likes)
MarketDelta® is best known for the Footprint® chart. The Footprint® chart provides increased market transparency for active traders and investors and delivers a discrete advantage over other charting methods. The result is more precise trade execution and a better understanding of where you should be trading, no matter what time frame you base your decisions upon.
MarketDelta® also provides all the traditional charts, drawing tools, technical indicators, and Market Profile® charts you might expect, with a special focus on price and volume related studies and indicators.
Our mission is simple - provide traders with greater price transparency using unique tools we create, innovate, & support. "
Duratek without some kind of TA knowledge you are flying BLIND in a meteor shower
FUTURES SCREAMING GREEN perhaps a triple digit gap up, will there be sustainable REAL DEMAND behind it?
I was not at computer yesterday, but the action premkt seems to be saying, the black boxes consider lows of 1262 on SPX close enough.....IMHO 1294 does not break on this "rally" at end of the day we will see demand PICKING up or we wont....in the form of 90% upside volume.
To trade off DATA or news is useless and fruitless and usually leads to losses, you trade off areas of supply and demand, support and resistance. CAN YOU see where the volume pockets are? The pros can....and they go here http://www.marketdelta.com/ *(I have a friend that has spent years working with this data, he's a very smart guy and intuitive trader....and he likes)
"MarketDelta® is a unique, full featured charting application used by professional traders worldwide to provide more precise trade execution.
MarketDelta® is best known for the Footprint® chart. The Footprint® chart provides increased market transparency for active traders and investors and delivers a discrete advantage over other charting methods. The result is more precise trade execution and a better understanding of where you should be trading, no matter what time frame you base your decisions upon.
MarketDelta® also provides all the traditional charts, drawing tools, technical indicators, and Market Profile® charts you might expect, with a special focus on price and volume related studies and indicators.
Our mission is simple - provide traders with greater price transparency using unique tools we create, innovate, & support. "
Duratek without some kind of TA knowledge you are flying BLIND in a meteor shower
CURRENT SPX SETUP
Click to enlarge @&** No I don't see a lower band of price until 1249 gives way. VIX just pierced 19, hardly the FEAR IN SELLING we would LIKE to see to put some cash to work IMHO.Prices have been falling more from a LACK OF DEMAND then INCREASE IN SUPPLY....bear markets grow fed by increasing SUPPLY....at a time of weakening demand, the 2 together make for wicked price declines.....we have ONLY half equation now.D
JOBS JOBS HOUSING HOUSING HOUSING
With jobs, comes ability to BUY these "bargain" basements along with LOW interest rates, BUT the data shows weakening instead of strength.
In Dec 5.22M (on yearly basis) homes sold pace (existing) with a 1% price drop and 8.2 months of supply. April had 9.2 months supply, only 5.05 M pace and a 5% DROP in price...
Data due out 8:30 includes retail sales (is GAS incl? yes) and inflation data, futures show nice openeing POP! but IMHO demand has not shown up in any meaningful way....and SELLERS have not sold with reckless abandon, we will go up and test a support level to which IMHO it gets sold. FOMC meeting next TUESDAY for rates......flip a coin
D
In Dec 5.22M (on yearly basis) homes sold pace (existing) with a 1% price drop and 8.2 months of supply. April had 9.2 months supply, only 5.05 M pace and a 5% DROP in price...
Data due out 8:30 includes retail sales (is GAS incl? yes) and inflation data, futures show nice openeing POP! but IMHO demand has not shown up in any meaningful way....and SELLERS have not sold with reckless abandon, we will go up and test a support level to which IMHO it gets sold. FOMC meeting next TUESDAY for rates......flip a coin
D
Monday, June 13, 2011
TIME IS WHAT MANY HAVE RUN OUT OF
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AP-survey-Economists-warn-apf-2754962802.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
WASHINGTON (AP) -- "The best cure for the economy now is time."
That's the overwhelming opinion of leading economists in a new Associated Press survey. They say the Federal Reserve shouldn't bother trying to stimulate the economy -- and could actually do damage if it did.
The economists are lowering their forecasts for job creation and economic growth for the rest of this year, mainly because of high oil prices. A batch of bleak data over the past month has suggested that the 2-year-old economic recovery is slowing."
We got HERE mostly from FED action and GAO accounting change...
D
WASHINGTON (AP) -- "The best cure for the economy now is time."
That's the overwhelming opinion of leading economists in a new Associated Press survey. They say the Federal Reserve shouldn't bother trying to stimulate the economy -- and could actually do damage if it did.
The economists are lowering their forecasts for job creation and economic growth for the rest of this year, mainly because of high oil prices. A batch of bleak data over the past month has suggested that the 2-year-old economic recovery is slowing."
We got HERE mostly from FED action and GAO accounting change...
D
END OF ONE ERA, BEGINNING OF ANOTHER
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/debt-binge-ending-middle-class-clobbered-20110405-094510-405.html
"The world is coming to the end of a 50-year debt supercycle, John Mauldin says, and the austerity required to put us back on solid financial footing will hammer ordinary Americans.
Mauldin, a financial analyst and the author of ENDGAME: The End Of The Debt Supercycle And How It Changes Everything, thinks that the the US will soon be forced to confront the fact that it has borrowed way too much in the past few decades and must severely cut back.
The US's $1.6 trillion-a-year deficit, Mauldin believes, must quickly be cut to about $300 billion a year, or the US will face a debt crisis. And given that our current government can barely find ways to chop $30 billion of spending from the 2011 budget, these cuts are going to be painful.
What will the forced austerity mean for ordinary Americans?
Higher taxes and significantly reduced Medicare and Medicaid spending, for starters, Mauldin says. And then cuts to almost everything else in the budget, including military spending and education.
In other words, as has so often been the case in the past couple of decades, the middle class will bear the brunt of the impact. "
Also have Greece debt crisis, Arab unrest, 2 wars to fight.....costs unending
S&P Downgrades Greece, Says Default Likely- Reuters
Greece on Monday became the country with the lowest credit rating in the world after Standard & Poor's downgraded it by three notches, saying the agency would consider a likely debt restructuring as a default.
D
"The world is coming to the end of a 50-year debt supercycle, John Mauldin says, and the austerity required to put us back on solid financial footing will hammer ordinary Americans.
Mauldin, a financial analyst and the author of ENDGAME: The End Of The Debt Supercycle And How It Changes Everything, thinks that the the US will soon be forced to confront the fact that it has borrowed way too much in the past few decades and must severely cut back.
The US's $1.6 trillion-a-year deficit, Mauldin believes, must quickly be cut to about $300 billion a year, or the US will face a debt crisis. And given that our current government can barely find ways to chop $30 billion of spending from the 2011 budget, these cuts are going to be painful.
What will the forced austerity mean for ordinary Americans?
Higher taxes and significantly reduced Medicare and Medicaid spending, for starters, Mauldin says. And then cuts to almost everything else in the budget, including military spending and education.
In other words, as has so often been the case in the past couple of decades, the middle class will bear the brunt of the impact. "
Also have Greece debt crisis, Arab unrest, 2 wars to fight.....costs unending
S&P Downgrades Greece, Says Default Likely- Reuters
Greece on Monday became the country with the lowest credit rating in the world after Standard & Poor's downgraded it by three notches, saying the agency would consider a likely debt restructuring as a default.
D
Sunday, June 12, 2011
WEEKEND COMMENTARY
AFter reading this weekend and considering everything I observe, we are IMHO nearing a nice buy target. I would concentrate on small, mid cap, tech and maybe energy. I will use etf's and keep it to no more than 3-4....could add a few stocks IF trend establishes.
We are working our way to a new bear market, but tops take time to form most of the time. With buying power ebbing, but selling power rising modestly, it is hard to see this as the END of bull mkt. I think the VIX under 19 is very telling after 6 90% downers and a month of losses.
SP 1249 has been my target, we are close. I think the pros are also eyeballing it...the boxes set to buy there....shouldn't we?
ON a GAP DOWN that gets close I would SPRING into action....I DO NOT see support from where we are down to 1249 ish....and we could keep slogging down too until proven prices have fallen enough to invigorate buyers.
If I don't see a good trade, I shouldn't force it, even if I am depending on trading for a living....doesn't mean I have to trade every day.
I DO LIKE story stocks as an idea or product or service that is or sounds great...as MOMO plays....this works best IN A BULL MKT.
GOLD? metal yes, miners NO, so many below 200 MA, BUT....they could spring back with mkt.....been watching $.
Some have black listed me. I have NEVER been abusive to anyone, I am seen as perennial BEAR.......maybe so....why is this BEAR looking for a long trade then? I see a lousy economy and those of you who read what I read know what's coming.....but there is always opportunity, and I wont FIGHT the market anymore and am doing my best to hear its message....and go with whatever trend is there with lowest RISK, like action since MAY? its been playing the decline!
HOLD STUFF FOR LONG PERIODS? are you kidding me? LOVE NOTHING! its all just trades, some IT in a f'd up situation that cant possibly have bottomed LONGER TERM. Within each crippled sector can still be those who not only survive but thrive...all is not lost....there's just lots of losing come and gone and on its way.
NEXT week SHOULD give us a nice buyin LONG....VIX UNDER 19......I'm still trying to wrap myself around this. A month of selling......levels of bearishness in certain long standing polls equal to 2009.......6 90% down days....VIX under 19 WTF????
The market has been falling from LACK OF BUYERS....NOT THROWING BABY WITH BATH WATER......that tells me this COULD be EARLY move in what is ALREADY A NEW BEAR MKT and that THE HIGHS are already established.....we have R and S established so we can watch and see. WHEN SELLERS throw in the towel.....who is left? SO the fact what people SAY....polls doesn't jive with what they may do....action speaks louder...who cares what they say? well Consumer Confidence is certainly a clue historically.
Bear MKTS and BULL TOPS ARE made from initially having MAJORITY say...this isn't OVER......and until MAJOR damage is done do the LEMMINGS begin to get tightened sphincters and the selling picks up and the VIX SHOOTS UPWARD.......this is only issue left for me......is the VIX saying buying IT approaching......or COMPLACENCY REMAINS LIKE DEER IN HEADLIGHTS and UNTIL we see FEAR IN THE STREETS do we venture for an IT BUY?
SPX 1250 is close.....I would take chance near there.....not for love....but for money. To SUM the market is NOT to love, I trust what I can observe, less what I read (if at all), market COULD be rolling over but also nearing a decent lower risk buy opp. Bull mkts can be funny, tricky...have corrections....keep open mind except that we are no question in my mind cyclical in the bull SECULAR in the bear. Many bottoming signals BUT.....to buy NOW means to GUESS when DEMAND comes back....but I DO SEE 1249 ish as a key potential ST bottom....preverbial summer rally usually doesn't dissapoint....I DO NOT SEE A NEW HIGH COMING FOR RALLY....
Duratek
We are working our way to a new bear market, but tops take time to form most of the time. With buying power ebbing, but selling power rising modestly, it is hard to see this as the END of bull mkt. I think the VIX under 19 is very telling after 6 90% downers and a month of losses.
SP 1249 has been my target, we are close. I think the pros are also eyeballing it...the boxes set to buy there....shouldn't we?
ON a GAP DOWN that gets close I would SPRING into action....I DO NOT see support from where we are down to 1249 ish....and we could keep slogging down too until proven prices have fallen enough to invigorate buyers.
If I don't see a good trade, I shouldn't force it, even if I am depending on trading for a living....doesn't mean I have to trade every day.
I DO LIKE story stocks as an idea or product or service that is or sounds great...as MOMO plays....this works best IN A BULL MKT.
GOLD? metal yes, miners NO, so many below 200 MA, BUT....they could spring back with mkt.....been watching $.
Some have black listed me. I have NEVER been abusive to anyone, I am seen as perennial BEAR.......maybe so....why is this BEAR looking for a long trade then? I see a lousy economy and those of you who read what I read know what's coming.....but there is always opportunity, and I wont FIGHT the market anymore and am doing my best to hear its message....and go with whatever trend is there with lowest RISK, like action since MAY? its been playing the decline!
HOLD STUFF FOR LONG PERIODS? are you kidding me? LOVE NOTHING! its all just trades, some IT in a f'd up situation that cant possibly have bottomed LONGER TERM. Within each crippled sector can still be those who not only survive but thrive...all is not lost....there's just lots of losing come and gone and on its way.
NEXT week SHOULD give us a nice buyin LONG....VIX UNDER 19......I'm still trying to wrap myself around this. A month of selling......levels of bearishness in certain long standing polls equal to 2009.......6 90% down days....VIX under 19 WTF????
The market has been falling from LACK OF BUYERS....NOT THROWING BABY WITH BATH WATER......that tells me this COULD be EARLY move in what is ALREADY A NEW BEAR MKT and that THE HIGHS are already established.....we have R and S established so we can watch and see. WHEN SELLERS throw in the towel.....who is left? SO the fact what people SAY....polls doesn't jive with what they may do....action speaks louder...who cares what they say? well Consumer Confidence is certainly a clue historically.
Bear MKTS and BULL TOPS ARE made from initially having MAJORITY say...this isn't OVER......and until MAJOR damage is done do the LEMMINGS begin to get tightened sphincters and the selling picks up and the VIX SHOOTS UPWARD.......this is only issue left for me......is the VIX saying buying IT approaching......or COMPLACENCY REMAINS LIKE DEER IN HEADLIGHTS and UNTIL we see FEAR IN THE STREETS do we venture for an IT BUY?
SPX 1250 is close.....I would take chance near there.....not for love....but for money. To SUM the market is NOT to love, I trust what I can observe, less what I read (if at all), market COULD be rolling over but also nearing a decent lower risk buy opp. Bull mkts can be funny, tricky...have corrections....keep open mind except that we are no question in my mind cyclical in the bull SECULAR in the bear. Many bottoming signals BUT.....to buy NOW means to GUESS when DEMAND comes back....but I DO SEE 1249 ish as a key potential ST bottom....preverbial summer rally usually doesn't dissapoint....I DO NOT SEE A NEW HIGH COMING FOR RALLY....
Duratek
Friday, June 10, 2011
SPX MAKES NEW LOW FROM HIGHS
An oversold market that doesn't rally has potential to pick up steam, today was likely 90% down volume day, 6th in the series, never before seen in a true BULL MKT. The Bulls that criticized me a month ago are very quiet. I have NOT called the end to this cyclical bull yet...even if it is beginning to feel like it....as I don't have all the TA in place to do that...but it sure is rolling over.
If the selling keeps up it may cause a 50/200 bear cross, and you don't see too many of during BULL MKTS.
The VIX (FEAR INDEX) is STILL BELOW 19 !!!! even after a month of selling, for any BULL this should be troubling, this is the fodder a BEAR can feed on, as FEAR helps to create a bottom, even if temporary.
D
SPX LOWER LOWS INTACT
D
Thursday, June 09, 2011
DAG READY TO GET JIGGY? *update 6/10
Wet spring cuts corn crop, prices to stay high- AP
Maybe NOT so...nothing is 100% back into wedge, weak today with market, but TZA isn't..... 1249 SPX my target
D
TRADE HAS LITTLE TO DO WITH STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE
Maybe if we give the products away companies will hire again? The hip hip hoorah bunch were chortling and bristling at the prospects for not just QE 3.0 but maybe QE 2.5 !!! oooooohhhhh.
Jobs? claims STILL in the 420K range...BOOOOOOHHHHH Answer for economic woes.....jobs, jobs and more jobs. 2.5 years into recovery we have the WEAKEST JOB and ECONOMIC DATA in any recent history, "recovery" from Recession.....my BULLISH detractors refuse to get their eyes checked...
Duratek
INVESTORS NOT BEING REWARDED FOR HOLDING STOCKS
NOW? 1.8% one of the lowest readings in history except 2000, what happened in 2000?
4.4% is the mean paid over history....let me repeat...we are now at 1.8%....that is extremely bothersome.
KISS A BOND FROG
"CHICAGO (CNNMoney) -- Pimco founder Bill Gross reiterated his warning to cash out of Treasuries Wednesday afternoon.
Investors who have been betting on Treasuries are destined "to get cooked like frogs in an increasingly hot pot of water," the well-known bond bear told attendees at a Morningstar Investment conference in Chicago.
Gross, who manages the $235 billion Pimco Total Return Fund (PTTAX), said real interest rates, which remove the effect of inflation to measure the actual yield an investor receives, have fallen into negative territory. "
Investors who have been betting on Treasuries are destined "to get cooked like frogs in an increasingly hot pot of water," the well-known bond bear told attendees at a Morningstar Investment conference in Chicago.
Gross, who manages the $235 billion Pimco Total Return Fund (PTTAX), said real interest rates, which remove the effect of inflation to measure the actual yield an investor receives, have fallen into negative territory. "
Wednesday, June 08, 2011
AMUSING AND SAD
It is sad how so many are so quick to accuse others of being "perma Bears" when these same people would say its raining when they're being pissed on. There is always the lemmings, the go with the flow crowd...everythig is alright crowd...most of the time, in their little world maybe all is OK....but everything is NOT OK.
The fun bag bunch never wants to pay for anything, and thinks that piling up more debt on top of existing putrid debt, to print TRILLIONS....to change accounting rules to make earnings appear sound, to manipulate the stock market...to RUIN savers....that this EQUALS PROSPERITY....well then there isn't much for me to say to them except....get a life.
One day, the correction will be over, and prosperity will return....but its going to take a much better effort and more truth than has already been thrown at it. If 100 people are in crowded building....and it collapses, and 10 are killed....that's 10 too many for me.....In the case of economy.....the REAL STATS point to the weakest recovery in history....
D
The fun bag bunch never wants to pay for anything, and thinks that piling up more debt on top of existing putrid debt, to print TRILLIONS....to change accounting rules to make earnings appear sound, to manipulate the stock market...to RUIN savers....that this EQUALS PROSPERITY....well then there isn't much for me to say to them except....get a life.
One day, the correction will be over, and prosperity will return....but its going to take a much better effort and more truth than has already been thrown at it. If 100 people are in crowded building....and it collapses, and 10 are killed....that's 10 too many for me.....In the case of economy.....the REAL STATS point to the weakest recovery in history....
D
GDX (looking for that GOLD MINER BOUNCE)
D
LOOKING FOR A BOTTOM
I find the LOW VIX troublesome and as P pointed out...where's the washout bottom....a visit to the 200 would get traders attention and maybe turn ON those black boxes
FITCH WARNING
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A default would have severe reverberations in global markets, a top Federal Reserve official said just hours after Fitch Ratings warned it could slash credit ratings if the government misses bond payments.
St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard told Reuters on Wednesday "the U.S. fiscal situation, if not handled correctly, could turn into a global macro shock.
"The idea that the U.S. could threaten to default is a dangerous one," he said in an interview.
full story http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fitch-warns-US-risks-coveted-rb-3165963258.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
"The reverberations in those global markets would be very severe. That's where the real risk comes in," Bullard warned.
Some Republican lawmakers have said a brief default, which would be inevitable in August if lawmakers fail to raise the nation's $14.3 trillion debt ceiling, might be acceptable if it forces the White House to deal with large budget deficits.
Bullard's warning came just after Fitch said it would slash to "junk" the ratings on all Treasury securities, seen worldwide as a risk-free investment, if the government misses debt payments by August 15.
The ratings would go back up once the government fulfills its debt obligations, but probably not to the current AAA level, Fitch said, in a stark statement about the impact of even a short-lived default on the credit-worthiness.
"The notion of flirting with a default on existing obligations flirts with irresponsibility," Richard Bernstein, chief executive of Richard Bernstein Capital Management LLC, said at the Reuters 2011 Investment Outlook Summit in New York.
The White House said Fitch's warning makes it clear that "there is no alternative to raising the debt ceiling."
St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard told Reuters on Wednesday "the U.S. fiscal situation, if not handled correctly, could turn into a global macro shock.
"The idea that the U.S. could threaten to default is a dangerous one," he said in an interview.
full story http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fitch-warns-US-risks-coveted-rb-3165963258.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
"The reverberations in those global markets would be very severe. That's where the real risk comes in," Bullard warned.
Some Republican lawmakers have said a brief default, which would be inevitable in August if lawmakers fail to raise the nation's $14.3 trillion debt ceiling, might be acceptable if it forces the White House to deal with large budget deficits.
Bullard's warning came just after Fitch said it would slash to "junk" the ratings on all Treasury securities, seen worldwide as a risk-free investment, if the government misses debt payments by August 15.
The ratings would go back up once the government fulfills its debt obligations, but probably not to the current AAA level, Fitch said, in a stark statement about the impact of even a short-lived default on the credit-worthiness.
"The notion of flirting with a default on existing obligations flirts with irresponsibility," Richard Bernstein, chief executive of Richard Bernstein Capital Management LLC, said at the Reuters 2011 Investment Outlook Summit in New York.
The White House said Fitch's warning makes it clear that "there is no alternative to raising the debt ceiling."
SPX FAN LINES. 1249 SUPPORT IN VIEW. AM SET UP
Looks like futes point to 1284 giving way....I just don't see anything until 1249 area...of any substance to HOLD the decline...a stab here or there don't cut it....1249 more likely IMHO. Europe weak overnight...if rebound of some kind on am gap down....we will see 1249 in next week or so....before ANY summer rally IMHO.....MOST successive weeks of RED WEEKLY VOLUME BARS since 2009 lows.
Duratek
MARTIN ARMSTRONG "IS THE END NEAR"
http://howestreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Is-the-End-Near-06-05-2011.pdf
"The idea of lower interest rates will stimulate the economy is nonsense. If the return is so low, capital leaves and thus you end up with lost decades. The US is looking very Japanese of late. It appears we will see rising interest rates overall globally as capital shifts to private sector assets (non-real estate) as an alternative to bond investment. Business is still not likely to borrow to expand for the same reason it did not at the bottom of the Great Depression. WITHOUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE, NOBODY WILL BORROW TO INVEST. Until they start to figure this out, we are in a downward spiral. The elderly rely upon interest income and the politicians are destroying the living standards of the elderly with the stupidity of manipulating interest rates down. They have attacked the elderly by reducing the Social Security payments thanks to ending indexing to inflation, and the states raise property taxes forcing them out of their homes. Now that they cannot even sell their homes, the states and extorting larger proportions of net income from the elderly to support greedy state official pensions.
The only currency approaching a high is the Swiss franc. Nevertheless, keep in mind that if Europe submerges first into economic debt chaos, this will be positive for the dollar. However, the higher the dollar rises, the worse the domestic economy will develop. The dollar Index on the ICE is within striking distance of retesting the 2008 low. Therefore, we need to watch the dollar as we move into the target."
"The idea of lower interest rates will stimulate the economy is nonsense. If the return is so low, capital leaves and thus you end up with lost decades. The US is looking very Japanese of late. It appears we will see rising interest rates overall globally as capital shifts to private sector assets (non-real estate) as an alternative to bond investment. Business is still not likely to borrow to expand for the same reason it did not at the bottom of the Great Depression. WITHOUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE, NOBODY WILL BORROW TO INVEST. Until they start to figure this out, we are in a downward spiral. The elderly rely upon interest income and the politicians are destroying the living standards of the elderly with the stupidity of manipulating interest rates down. They have attacked the elderly by reducing the Social Security payments thanks to ending indexing to inflation, and the states raise property taxes forcing them out of their homes. Now that they cannot even sell their homes, the states and extorting larger proportions of net income from the elderly to support greedy state official pensions.
The only currency approaching a high is the Swiss franc. Nevertheless, keep in mind that if Europe submerges first into economic debt chaos, this will be positive for the dollar. However, the higher the dollar rises, the worse the domestic economy will develop. The dollar Index on the ICE is within striking distance of retesting the 2008 low. Therefore, we need to watch the dollar as we move into the target."
DEBT
"Many experts say private debt owed by households, as well as businesses, is an even bigger problem than the government debt that's getting so much attention lately. And it won't be solved without a difficult stretch of high unemployment and slow growth that will likely last for six or seven more years, producing America's own version of Japan's "Lost Decade."
http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/08/news/economy/economy_debt_unemployment/index.htm?iid=Lead
http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/08/news/economy/economy_debt_unemployment/index.htm?iid=Lead
Tuesday, June 07, 2011
AM SET UP
Todays rally fell apart at the seams into the close, actually was a downer from 2PM on and closed on the lows. Stocks above their 10 DMA fell below 10% again today and the door is open for a short term rally.
The action following a 90% down volume day was so uninspiring, it is hard to suggest prices have fallen LOW enough to begin a "sustainable" rally.
Topping sign abound but nothing is confirmed as yet, go with the flow.....after short rebound IMHO that's going to be down.
D
The action following a 90% down volume day was so uninspiring, it is hard to suggest prices have fallen LOW enough to begin a "sustainable" rally.
Topping sign abound but nothing is confirmed as yet, go with the flow.....after short rebound IMHO that's going to be down.
D
SPX 5 MINUTE CHART
D
BIG BEN STRIKES 12
Bernanke Sees Stronger Growth in 2nd Half of Year- AP
"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says temporary factors, such as higher gas prices and the crisis in Japan, are the main causes of a softening economy. But he predicts growth will pick up in the second half of the year."
THANK GD someone has come forward as Shaman and seen the future!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! certainly the mkt enjoyed it.....
"all phases of construction are weak...." I'M same guy who saw the housing crisis coming and stepped in......" OH SHIT that's for the deaf convention speach.... .....
"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says temporary factors, such as higher gas prices and the crisis in Japan, are the main causes of a softening economy. But he predicts growth will pick up in the second half of the year."
THANK GD someone has come forward as Shaman and seen the future!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! certainly the mkt enjoyed it.....
"all phases of construction are weak...." I'M same guy who saw the housing crisis coming and stepped in......" OH SHIT that's for the deaf convention speach.... .....
Tale of 2 Realities
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - "Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said on Tuesday there was ample liquidity in the U.S. financial system and no need for the U.S. central bank to continue its extremely easy monetary policy."
But
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - "Job openings were harder to come by in April as private-sector hiring ebbed, more evidence that the labor market is precarious, Labor Department data showed on Tuesday.'
But
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - "Job openings were harder to come by in April as private-sector hiring ebbed, more evidence that the labor market is precarious, Labor Department data showed on Tuesday.'
I'm TICKED OFF
D
Monday, June 06, 2011
VIX INDICATES LACK OF FEAR
SOME kind of PITY rally is NEAR....might be worth a scalp. This makes 6th 90% down volume day since JAN....friends this is HIGHLY IRREGULAR (if not rare) during a BULL MKT? not one 90% up day salvo fired in response.
20 cross over down thru 50 EMA , this is first cross (last one was up) since Sept 2010 !
VIX to 18.54 shows LITTLE FEAR. SO even as a VERY ST rally may be approaching, this decline is part of a much bigger correction (may NOT be bear kickoff....but then again....)
TRANSPORTS off 1 3/4% , have been in front of decline.
Maybe after near NON -STOP rally from last Sept....this is ALL just part of the game
Price is back to NEAR March lows....but VIX then was near 30
Duratek
WHY 1249 stands out to me
D
TRADES
Break of 1294 negates the longs I listed, out with a little scratch....now SDS is paying off,,,will close shortly...reasess.
MUST have SPX direction in mind if sclaping....that downtrend line at 1297 was helpful too on my chart...
D
MUST have SPX direction in mind if sclaping....that downtrend line at 1297 was helpful too on my chart...
D
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