WEEKEND COMMENTARY

AFter reading this weekend and considering everything I observe, we are IMHO nearing a nice buy target. I would concentrate on small, mid cap, tech and maybe energy. I will use etf's and keep it to no more than 3-4....could add a few stocks IF trend establishes.

We are working our way to a new bear market, but tops take time to form most of the time. With buying power ebbing, but selling power rising modestly, it is hard to see this as the END of bull mkt. I think the VIX under 19 is very telling after 6 90% downers and a month of losses.

SP 1249 has been my target, we are close. I think the pros are also eyeballing it...the boxes set to buy there....shouldn't we?

ON a GAP DOWN that gets close I would SPRING into action....I DO NOT see support from where we are down to 1249 ish....and we could keep slogging down too until proven prices have fallen enough to invigorate buyers.

If I don't see a good trade, I shouldn't force it, even if I am depending on trading for a living....doesn't mean I have to trade every day.

I DO LIKE story stocks as an idea or product or service that is or sounds great...as MOMO plays....this works best IN A BULL MKT.

GOLD? metal yes, miners NO, so many below 200 MA, BUT....they could spring back with mkt.....been watching $.
Some have black listed me. I have NEVER been abusive to anyone, I am seen as perennial BEAR.......maybe so....why is this BEAR looking for a long trade then? I see a lousy economy and those of you who read what I read know what's coming.....but there is always opportunity, and I wont FIGHT the market anymore and am doing my best to hear its message....and go with whatever trend is there with lowest RISK, like action since MAY? its been playing the decline!

HOLD STUFF FOR LONG PERIODS? are you kidding me? LOVE NOTHING! its all just trades, some IT in a f'd up situation that cant possibly have bottomed LONGER TERM. Within each crippled sector can still be those who not only survive but thrive...all is not lost....there's just lots of losing come and gone and on its way.

NEXT week SHOULD give us a nice buyin LONG....VIX UNDER 19......I'm still trying to wrap myself around this. A month of selling......levels of bearishness in certain long standing polls equal to 2009.......6 90% down days....VIX under 19 WTF????

The market has been falling from LACK OF BUYERS....NOT THROWING BABY WITH BATH WATER......that tells me this COULD be EARLY move in what is ALREADY A NEW BEAR MKT and that THE HIGHS are already established.....we have R and S established so we can watch and see. WHEN SELLERS throw in the towel.....who is left? SO the fact what people SAY....polls doesn't jive with what they may do....action speaks louder...who cares what they say? well Consumer Confidence is certainly a clue historically.

Bear MKTS and BULL TOPS ARE made from initially having MAJORITY say...this isn't OVER......and until MAJOR damage is done do the LEMMINGS begin to get tightened sphincters and the selling picks up and the VIX SHOOTS UPWARD.......this is only issue left for me......is the VIX saying buying IT approaching......or COMPLACENCY REMAINS LIKE DEER IN HEADLIGHTS and UNTIL we see FEAR IN THE STREETS do we venture for an IT BUY?

SPX 1250 is close.....I would take chance near there.....not for love....but for money. To SUM the market is NOT to love, I trust what I can observe, less what I read (if at all), market COULD be rolling over but also nearing a decent lower risk buy opp. Bull mkts can be funny, tricky...have corrections....keep open mind except that we are no question in my mind cyclical in the bull SECULAR in the bear. Many bottoming signals BUT.....to buy NOW means to GUESS when DEMAND comes back....but I DO SEE 1249 ish as a key potential ST bottom....preverbial summer rally usually doesn't dissapoint....I DO NOT SEE A NEW HIGH COMING FOR RALLY....

Duratek