Sunday, June 19, 2011

CURRENT BEARISHNESS MANY SAY POINT TO STOCK BOTTOM!??

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Why-Wall-Street-still-says-apf-1669013056.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=

"Among the 9,015 analyst recommendations on S&P 500 stocks available today, only 300 are to sell, or 3.3 percent, according to data provider FactSet. That's the same proportion from a month earlier when the economy was considered to be in better shape. All else being equal, you want to sell if you think profit growth could slow.

Some analyst predictions that might make you scratch your head:

-- Profits will leap in the second quarter. For April through June, analysts expect that companies in the S&P 500 index will post $23.90 in operating profits per share, four pennies less than their estimate at the end of May, according to an S&P survey. If that happens, companies will earn 15 percent more than in last year's second quarter.

-- Record profits next quarter. For the three months ending Sept. 30, S&P says analysts see operating profits hitting $25.09 per share. That would be a higher than any quarter yet, beating results from the second quarter of 2007. Back then the economy was growing twice as fast and the unemployment rate was half what it is today.

-- A blockbuster year, followed by another. For all four quarters of 2011, analysts estimate that S&P 500 profits will hit a record $97.86 per share, surpassing by $10 the previous record for any year, set in 2006. Then, they insist, profits will jump another 14 percent to $111.82 per share in 2012.

S&P's Silverblatt thinks many analysts will eventually lower their estimates. He notes that most prefer to wait for corporate executives to hint that they should cut estimates before doing it. But many companies appear to be waiting until they announce second quarter earnings to guide estimates down. That won't be until at least mid-July."

Add a LOW VIX during month long selloff......at least put some doubt on a bottom formed by excessive pessimism.

D

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