Thursday, January 07, 2010
ULTIMATE GUIDES TO 2010 PREDICTIONS
http://pragcap.com/the-ultimate-guide-to-2010-investment-predictions-and-outlooks want ideas or see what many are "predicting"? knock yourself out
D
D
HYPERINFLTAION OR DEFLATION?
Have you ever seen a 100 Trillion Zimbabwe note? IT gets you a loaf of bread.
How does the Federal Gov hope to pay its EVER INCREASING budget deficits? only 2 ways: HIGHER TAXES (let's hit those "RICH" people....the ones who create jobs not the Banksters) or Increasing tax receipts from revved up economy.
When that doesn't cover the HOLE, only thing left is to PRINT, but that money NEVER makes it into the REAL ECONOMY to create MONETARY INFLATION unless loans are made!
tHE new normal IS A smaller economy WITH less jobs, SOME OF THE LOSSES WILL BE PERMANENT.
Expect meager long term stock market gains in % terms from here for some time to come IMHO.
Each of the last 2 BUBBLE BOOMS created by EASY MONEY (how much easier can ZERO % FED rate be?) have both ended BADLY with accumulated debt as % of GDP off the charts, and has not barely began its march back to the norm....which means CONTRACTION after 70 years of EXPANSION.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN if and when the FED ENDS this historic period of Quantitative Easing? Said to end this MArch? MAJOR TOPS are typical in MArch and OCT (bottoms too).
MORE GAINS possible, some companies WILL EXPAND and do well, can you pick them? Are their stocks a "good deal"?
Holding stocks only profitable if you can find someone willing to pay you MORE than you paid.....IMHO a PONZI SCHEME.
The BANKSTERS got theirs, no uprising. No disgust?
WHY WON'T BANKS LEND? NO real capital? and too few credit worthy willing to borrow.....this is the NEW NORMAL so many are willing to pay UP for?
BULLS got MOMO, no question, higher prices good chance......but I am pretty sure when it's over, this game....the BAG will be passed to same old bag holders, and end game will also be the same....END BADLY.
Has the ground work been laid, the foundation paved for a STABLE, SUSTAINABLE growing economy?
Jobless claims up at 8:30, have a good one.
Duratek
How does the Federal Gov hope to pay its EVER INCREASING budget deficits? only 2 ways: HIGHER TAXES (let's hit those "RICH" people....the ones who create jobs not the Banksters) or Increasing tax receipts from revved up economy.
When that doesn't cover the HOLE, only thing left is to PRINT, but that money NEVER makes it into the REAL ECONOMY to create MONETARY INFLATION unless loans are made!
tHE new normal IS A smaller economy WITH less jobs, SOME OF THE LOSSES WILL BE PERMANENT.
Expect meager long term stock market gains in % terms from here for some time to come IMHO.
Each of the last 2 BUBBLE BOOMS created by EASY MONEY (how much easier can ZERO % FED rate be?) have both ended BADLY with accumulated debt as % of GDP off the charts, and has not barely began its march back to the norm....which means CONTRACTION after 70 years of EXPANSION.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN if and when the FED ENDS this historic period of Quantitative Easing? Said to end this MArch? MAJOR TOPS are typical in MArch and OCT (bottoms too).
MORE GAINS possible, some companies WILL EXPAND and do well, can you pick them? Are their stocks a "good deal"?
Holding stocks only profitable if you can find someone willing to pay you MORE than you paid.....IMHO a PONZI SCHEME.
The BANKSTERS got theirs, no uprising. No disgust?
WHY WON'T BANKS LEND? NO real capital? and too few credit worthy willing to borrow.....this is the NEW NORMAL so many are willing to pay UP for?
BULLS got MOMO, no question, higher prices good chance......but I am pretty sure when it's over, this game....the BAG will be passed to same old bag holders, and end game will also be the same....END BADLY.
Has the ground work been laid, the foundation paved for a STABLE, SUSTAINABLE growing economy?
Jobless claims up at 8:30, have a good one.
Duratek
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
THE RAPING OF AMERICA
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/01/class-warfare.html
THIS SHIT IS GOING TO COME TO AN UGLY HEAD ONE DAY MY FRIENDS>
Are YOU tired of BENDING OVER? GETTING SOLD OUT? HOSED? OBAMA just another front man for the monarchy and Banksters.....
also
Hussman DEC http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc091214.htm "DECIDEDLY SPECULATIVE" MUST READ!
psssssssstttttt OIL BACK TO $83
and
By Jessica Wohl
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Walgreen Co (NYSE:WAG - News) said sales at its drugstores open for at least a year fell 0.3 percent in December instead of rising as Wall Street had expected, as fewer customers came in and spent less when they did shop.
Duratek
THIS SHIT IS GOING TO COME TO AN UGLY HEAD ONE DAY MY FRIENDS>
Are YOU tired of BENDING OVER? GETTING SOLD OUT? HOSED? OBAMA just another front man for the monarchy and Banksters.....
also
Hussman DEC http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc091214.htm "DECIDEDLY SPECULATIVE" MUST READ!
psssssssstttttt OIL BACK TO $83
and
By Jessica Wohl
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Walgreen Co (NYSE:WAG - News) said sales at its drugstores open for at least a year fell 0.3 percent in December instead of rising as Wall Street had expected, as fewer customers came in and spent less when they did shop.
Duratek
BDI NEAR INFLECTION POINT
Recent uptrend still intact with sited resistance ahead and support below.....no V shaped bounce shown here.
We will watch for any possible BREAK of ZERO (0) in the ROC indicator below as a warning bell. It has managed to stay above since March rally began but has been non confirming in its weakness as markets around the world have rallied.
GAS is nearing $3 a gallon. Commodity prices have stayed inflated, even as DEMAND wanes and real signs of recovery are hard to find.
Instead of suffer the same fate as Japan since the 1980's and even worse the US Great Depression, the Gov's and FED printed and back stopped like no tomorrow in attempt to beat deflation. IMHO if indeed DEFLATION is whooped, we will get its nasty cousin HYPER INFLATION instead, does anyone really think we end will safe happy landing?
Here is a Shadow Stats PDF REPORT I suggest as always to READ what I offer, it will help you make your OWN mind up as to what lies ahead.
The US already owes Foreign Gov's near $14 TRILLION which is about 10% of our GDP as reported, this is likely to DOUBLE in the next 5 years.
The FED has bought near 50% of ALL TREASURY BONDS PRINTED! Foreign appetite has deminished for our debt at CURRENT YIELDS....unlike many here in this country who have crammed into them.
Some see rampant inflation near with MUCH higher interest rates, a collosal calamity.....other see 10 year yields falling below 2% !!! (Deflation camp)....what is more likely?
Added to recent budget needs is the escallation of troops in Afghanistan to the tune of near $30 BILLION a MONTH....this more than likely NOT on GOV balance sheets! held off in some kind of sneaky "suplimental spending thing"
You see inflation in all kinds of assets which would include the stock market, you don't see it where it was intended to help at the HOUSING PRICING LEVEL as recent stats showed a continued devaluation in existing home prices (and recently a whopping 16% decline in sales EVEN WITH GOV giveaways)
Not being talked about is the OVERWHELMING INVENTORY of unsold and foreclosed homes being held OFF the market........the stock market is full of BS if it is insinuating a V SHAPED recovery in anything but itself thanks to all those $'s sloshing around which have found a home.
Expect some data to misrepresent the real issues and weakness in months ahead as 100,000's get temp jobs for 10 yr census.
If we have V shaped recovery why then hasnt the GAO reversed its suspension of Mark To Market accounting from current mark to fantasy? BANKS DO NOT REFLECT current holdings valuations from a mkt standpt.
We need economy to HIRE about 150,000 a week to just cover new entries into job hunting, so now we celebrate a loss of only 450,000? we have LONG WAY TO GO.....FIRST part timers accepting that over loss of job need to be made full time......we have LONG WAY TO GO!
Duratek
Tuesday, January 05, 2010
SO...WHAT'S THIS RALLY BASED ON AGAIN?
By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer , On Tuesday January 5, 2010, 10:36 am
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of buyers who agreed to purchase previously occupied homes fell sharply in November, a sign sales will fall this winter, undermining last summer's recovery.
The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday its seasonally adjusted index of sales agreements fell 16 percent from October to a November reading of 96. It was the first decline following nine straight months of gains and the lowest reading since June.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of buyers who agreed to purchase previously occupied homes fell sharply in November, a sign sales will fall this winter, undermining last summer's recovery.
The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday its seasonally adjusted index of sales agreements fell 16 percent from October to a November reading of 96. It was the first decline following nine straight months of gains and the lowest reading since June.
MORE BROWN SHOOTS
OMG, Japan car sales have fallen to LOWEST LEVELS IN 38 YEARS!!!!! Despite benefitting from our AMAZING cash for klunkers plan as Japanese economy continues to slow.
Richard Koo PLEASE STAY AWAY from America! I read a Baron's article that said he is suggesting we follow what JApan did to avoid a Great Depresssion, have their government fill the SPENDING VOID.....yeah Richard that's worked out GREAT hasn't it? As the country is mired in deflationary stagnation caused by the bursting of a ? REAL ESTATE BANKING BUBBLE! uhmmm back in 1990??!!! their stock market is STILL barely 25% of what it was then! SO YUP let's follow their ideas of how NOT to pay the piper let's STRETCH out our issues over a generation.......
TRY THIS ON FOR SIZE, JAPAN IS ONLY BEATEN BY ZIMBABWE !!! for thier DEBT as % of GDP, this piece says we are at 60%....comforting.
From barron's I found this on NY TIMES "U.S. LOAN EFFORT IS SEEN AS ADDING TO HOUSING WOES" by PETER GOODMAN
There's a good reason why $TRILLIONS of intervention amounted to just 2.2% GDP gain and has has little effect in returning us to a SUSTAINABLE thriving economy.....you can't print your way nor sweep your way under a rug to prosperity......values continue to fall yet there is no MARK TO MARKET VALUE for paper back by mortgages.
The UNPRESCEDENTED LIQUIDITY and intervention of 2009 is behind us, it is not likely that pace can be or will be kept up......and IMHO is the MAIN DRIVER OF STOCK PRICES THAT NEVER REACHED A BEAR BOTTOM VALUATION.
You don't deal with REAL ISSUES they just don't go away
Duratek
Richard Koo PLEASE STAY AWAY from America! I read a Baron's article that said he is suggesting we follow what JApan did to avoid a Great Depresssion, have their government fill the SPENDING VOID.....yeah Richard that's worked out GREAT hasn't it? As the country is mired in deflationary stagnation caused by the bursting of a ? REAL ESTATE BANKING BUBBLE! uhmmm back in 1990??!!! their stock market is STILL barely 25% of what it was then! SO YUP let's follow their ideas of how NOT to pay the piper let's STRETCH out our issues over a generation.......
TRY THIS ON FOR SIZE, JAPAN IS ONLY BEATEN BY ZIMBABWE !!! for thier DEBT as % of GDP, this piece says we are at 60%....comforting.
From barron's I found this on NY TIMES "U.S. LOAN EFFORT IS SEEN AS ADDING TO HOUSING WOES" by PETER GOODMAN
There's a good reason why $TRILLIONS of intervention amounted to just 2.2% GDP gain and has has little effect in returning us to a SUSTAINABLE thriving economy.....you can't print your way nor sweep your way under a rug to prosperity......values continue to fall yet there is no MARK TO MARKET VALUE for paper back by mortgages.
The UNPRESCEDENTED LIQUIDITY and intervention of 2009 is behind us, it is not likely that pace can be or will be kept up......and IMHO is the MAIN DRIVER OF STOCK PRICES THAT NEVER REACHED A BEAR BOTTOM VALUATION.
You don't deal with REAL ISSUES they just don't go away
Duratek
UP UP AND AWAY?
By viewing weekly charts, we can get better idea what the day to day meanderings mean within the greater context of trend.
2010-2011 is the year of adjustable mortgage resets, and the higher this goes, the higher the NEW payment will be putting even MORE PRESSURE on the beleaguered economy.
Monday, January 04, 2010
DOW BREAKS OUT
To new rally highs along with SPX and RUT with TRANS lagging behind this time, oddly perhaps the VIX stayed above 20
88% up volume was heavy but VOLUME was light, a continuing issue that has not as yet stiffled the rally.
This is a momentum rally with little or NO under pinnings of valuations or yield, the 100 year PLUS history of the stock market has shown EVERY NEW GREAT SECULAR BULL began with PE ratios near dividend yield.
In 1982 the PE ratio and dividend yield were both near 6%. The current SPX dividend yield in UNDER 2% !!! MAJOR MKT TOP as in 2000 had 3% SPX yields!
I'm not saying themarket doesn't go higher, but for the short run I personally would be buying or adding at new highs, would prefer to buy on any weakness.
We are IN CYCLICAL BULL MKT but it's within a NASTY SECULAR BEAR MARKET and my guess much more PAIN awaits the day the piper needs his pay....but not today.
D
88% up volume was heavy but VOLUME was light, a continuing issue that has not as yet stiffled the rally.
This is a momentum rally with little or NO under pinnings of valuations or yield, the 100 year PLUS history of the stock market has shown EVERY NEW GREAT SECULAR BULL began with PE ratios near dividend yield.
In 1982 the PE ratio and dividend yield were both near 6%. The current SPX dividend yield in UNDER 2% !!! MAJOR MKT TOP as in 2000 had 3% SPX yields!
I'm not saying themarket doesn't go higher, but for the short run I personally would be buying or adding at new highs, would prefer to buy on any weakness.
We are IN CYCLICAL BULL MKT but it's within a NASTY SECULAR BEAR MARKET and my guess much more PAIN awaits the day the piper needs his pay....but not today.
D
WOW WHAT A REBOUND!
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm going unreported is the downard revison to last report and the bad miss this report.
PONZINOMICS on FIRE
D
Sunday, January 03, 2010
FIRST SOME FACTS GOING INTO 2010
Companies sit with large stash of cash. BIG profits have been had mostly by lopping heads, overhead. Now it must be had by increasing revenues....can they?
Fact is the REAL data is had via tax receipts....2009 State level so far reported is down 9% and FED level down 18% and 2008 was VERY POOR.
Extreme moves are followed by extreme reactions..>VOILA 2009 rally.
We are STUCK in trading range the late DEC breakout came on WEAK volume and was rejected last trading day........more weakness should follow.....many think 2010 brings consolodation for next big move.....are we phase one or last phase of cyclical bull?
Look for BIG labor adj in FED model to show much larger job losses.......
BDI has stalled.......hip hip for sideways
D
Fact is the REAL data is had via tax receipts....2009 State level so far reported is down 9% and FED level down 18% and 2008 was VERY POOR.
Extreme moves are followed by extreme reactions..>VOILA 2009 rally.
We are STUCK in trading range the late DEC breakout came on WEAK volume and was rejected last trading day........more weakness should follow.....many think 2010 brings consolodation for next big move.....are we phase one or last phase of cyclical bull?
Look for BIG labor adj in FED model to show much larger job losses.......
BDI has stalled.......hip hip for sideways
D
Saturday, January 02, 2010
BULLISH ON ECONOMY FOR 2010
http://safehaven.com/article-15376.htm Hey I found one, see I'm not so one sided kind of guy?
Cliff Droke author of above link. DO we have enough doomers to be contrary? I don't know, that isn't what previous chart showing bull and bear differential is back above the 2007 top.
We would be so lucky to consolidate as we did in 2004-2006 the gains from 2002 lows....and in REAL LIFE we would be so blessed to have REAL JOB creation too.
I personally don't think can possibly retract the TRILLIONS of lquidity without an accident, they levitated us over the black hole but I think it only pushed back the inevitable....or every crisis could be met with a printing press to rewch Nirvana.
2010 may be best played by the most nimble and stock picker, I don't see repeat of 2009 in any way. More GOV stimulus gets doled out in 2010 also, is this a case where we NEED the GOV to step in and BUY BUY SPEND SPEND SPEND, because businesses refuse to do so?
Unwinding this historic gambit will need more black art than skill, there is NO way to do it and not upset the cart IMHO
D
Cliff Droke author of above link. DO we have enough doomers to be contrary? I don't know, that isn't what previous chart showing bull and bear differential is back above the 2007 top.
We would be so lucky to consolidate as we did in 2004-2006 the gains from 2002 lows....and in REAL LIFE we would be so blessed to have REAL JOB creation too.
I personally don't think can possibly retract the TRILLIONS of lquidity without an accident, they levitated us over the black hole but I think it only pushed back the inevitable....or every crisis could be met with a printing press to rewch Nirvana.
2010 may be best played by the most nimble and stock picker, I don't see repeat of 2009 in any way. More GOV stimulus gets doled out in 2010 also, is this a case where we NEED the GOV to step in and BUY BUY SPEND SPEND SPEND, because businesses refuse to do so?
Unwinding this historic gambit will need more black art than skill, there is NO way to do it and not upset the cart IMHO
D
ARE INTEREST RATES HEADING HIGHER?
*click to enlarge
Here in lies the dilema I have recently brought up. The US is bankrupt, and every year we need to finance more and more as a % of our GDP with NO end in sight.
To finance the "BAIL OUT of the BANKSTERS" we had to print some more....funny money. We have an ongoing war, more debt......unfunded liabilities MUCH more debt....our GOV doesn't know how to LIVE WITHIN THEIR MEANS>
Some of this gulf, the insatiable appetite to spend, will have to be made up in HIGHER TAXES.
Then we had the historic fear from finacial crisis, and in NEVER BEFORE SEEN numbers people got herded into Bonds and Bond Funds.....some $300B in 2009 compared to pitiful $30B or so in equity only funds.....quite the disparity.
SO we have a 25-27 yr old Bond BULL, we have RECORD (think EXTREME) amounts going into bond funds, record fear, andnow we have to fund RECORD DEBT......we have FED printing mney to buy the same bonds (monetizing). They say this QE will end in march of 2010.
I have shown rates long term 10 yr are turning up. If fear eases, it is SAID economy getting better....this kind of talk usually brings selling to bonds...yields rise.
We also know little guy almost always is buying when should sell, sell when should be buying...almost always wrong......and now has run into bonds in record numbers just as need for debt increasing and FED intervention nearing an end game.....
I fear a BOND CRASH.....and bond market measurably LARGER than stock market......and I hope I'm wrong.
OVER LIQUIFIED markets seeing FED and GOV backstop had an incredable 2009.....wiil that continue?
D
"LOST DECADE"
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34664092/ns/business-washington_post/
Yeah, I'm back, you ready to roll into 2010?
Duratek
Yeah, I'm back, you ready to roll into 2010?
Duratek
Friday, January 01, 2010
FOOD FOR THOUGHT. NEXT LIKELY GS TARGET FOR PROFIT?
They seem to be at center of FEEDING trough since 1900's, and now thanks to hank Paulson (EX GS CEO) major competitors are gone, many EX GS employees at every orifice of GOV power and influence.....what stands in their way? NOTHING.
AS the avg American has either lost job, home or both, and has seen net worth plummet, GS has become biggest bank, biggest profits, biggest influence, biggest bonuses.
And so I ask myself what is next? The only left intact longest running bull market, well it WILL eventually BURST, they all do, and IMHO that has to be the BOND BULL/BUBBLE.
This hit me, at the VERY time GS has profitted and many others from the market rally in 2009, AVG JOE has stuck head in sand and it is reported bought into Bond Funds in HISTORIC RECORD AMOUNTS!!!!!!!!! and bought scantilly into equity funds an historic imbalance.
AT same time you can see HOW LONG (early 1980's) interest rates have been FALLING hitting generational lows as financial crisis hits it ZENITH into 2009. It is also true the "little guy" gets screwed every time, is buying when should be selling, is selling when should be buying, and now is in BOND FUNDS in RECORD AMOUNTS.....near RECORD LOWS in yields and RECORD HIGHS in DEMAND FOR DEBT...and GOV deficits.......as the MAIN SUPPORT for said market is FED PRINTING AND BUYING....and that won't last forever......at same time FOREIGN buyers are scarce....as our needs for debt RISE....to unseen heights.....now that's a crowded trade....
The BOND MARKET IS EXPONENTIALLY LARGER THAN STOCK MARKET, what IF there IS a bubble and it has already or will soon BURST? well I am guessing you don't want to be there left HOLDING THE BAG.
Is my thinking wrong here? VIX hit generational HIGHS, fear sent most to the comfort of bonds....that was thevery point the smart money BEGAN BUYING THE HATED STOCK MARKET....volume has NOT BEEN THERE reaching a high in MARCH....prices keep rising.....there has not been a new high in new highs since aug.
I am NOT saying stock cannot continue to rally, what worries me is the explosion of the BOND MARKET which would seem inevitable and may already be in progress.
And Banks still benefit from not having to MARK TO MARKET the crummy CDO's and mortgage paper still held or whomever holds it....value has not yet stabilized.....and is not being shown at fair value nor maybe even on the books (off balance sheet).
It seems likely to me that after such a wonderful 2009 for stock (as in 2003 and 2004 following flat) a decline or consolidation may be under way and returns in stocks harder to find......you know GS is thinking how to make money...right now.
Is the bond market an accident waiting to happen? I HOPE not, I THINK so.
Duratek
START 2010 WITH HUMOR
rense.com
Not so funny "How Goldman Sachs made $50 B from economic collapse"
Real Estate Bubble collapse one of main causes of economic crisis, and all the bad paper tied to its declining value.
Most recent report showed NO reversal of falling value trend as prices have fallen further from 2008, ONLY thing keeping this from headlines and reality is suspension of real accounting as MARK TO MARKET BIT THE DUST.
At this rate expect 10 years of slogging around and little progress. WHile in ST Pete/Tampa I SAW SO many for sale signs.......
Expect some charts this weekend as I catch up, I don't know yet the fall back below break (1120) and back into trading range will lead to more selling as we start 2010
D..happy NY
Not so funny "How Goldman Sachs made $50 B from economic collapse"Real Estate Bubble collapse one of main causes of economic crisis, and all the bad paper tied to its declining value.
Most recent report showed NO reversal of falling value trend as prices have fallen further from 2008, ONLY thing keeping this from headlines and reality is suspension of real accounting as MARK TO MARKET BIT THE DUST.
At this rate expect 10 years of slogging around and little progress. WHile in ST Pete/Tampa I SAW SO many for sale signs.......
Expect some charts this weekend as I catch up, I don't know yet the fall back below break (1120) and back into trading range will lead to more selling as we start 2010
D..happy NY
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