Wednesday, August 03, 2011
WHERE ARE WE?
Planned Layoffs Surge in July: Challenger- Reuters
The number of planned layoffs at U.S. firms rose to a 16-month high in July as sectors which had been seeing fairly few layoffs unexpectedly bled jobs, a report on Wednesday showed.
Another bearish sign as employment is the key component to any recovery.
Yesterday registered another 90% plus down volume day, the 8th or 9th this year! It came on SURGING VOLUME, was this a PANIC LOW? Market is short term oversold, the quality of any rebound will serve as a clue for what may lie ahead. NO debt ceiling deal rally is bothersome. World markets are spinning downward, including Europes largest economy Germany, theDAX falling below its 200 day moving average.
Surging volume on Tuesday SHOULD open door for a few days of rally, but end of week data on employment may make that difficult if above article is a clue.
GOLD soars to new highs as fear of crisis and currency in general feed it. So will Federal Reserve "step in again" to stimulate economy? How has that worked so far, few jobs and fueling inflation negate ANY good it may do. Bullishness towards bonds is lopsided. Swiss currency rallies to new levels.
You can be technically SHORT the market by being in cash. I am warning, and have been of potential for the BEAR MARKET to take hold again. Stocks and commodities are the 2 assets not deflating.....well maybe make that the metals....a deflating stock market may bring unexpected rally in the good old greenback.
Duratek
The number of planned layoffs at U.S. firms rose to a 16-month high in July as sectors which had been seeing fairly few layoffs unexpectedly bled jobs, a report on Wednesday showed.
Another bearish sign as employment is the key component to any recovery.
Yesterday registered another 90% plus down volume day, the 8th or 9th this year! It came on SURGING VOLUME, was this a PANIC LOW? Market is short term oversold, the quality of any rebound will serve as a clue for what may lie ahead. NO debt ceiling deal rally is bothersome. World markets are spinning downward, including Europes largest economy Germany, theDAX falling below its 200 day moving average.
Surging volume on Tuesday SHOULD open door for a few days of rally, but end of week data on employment may make that difficult if above article is a clue.
GOLD soars to new highs as fear of crisis and currency in general feed it. So will Federal Reserve "step in again" to stimulate economy? How has that worked so far, few jobs and fueling inflation negate ANY good it may do. Bullishness towards bonds is lopsided. Swiss currency rallies to new levels.
You can be technically SHORT the market by being in cash. I am warning, and have been of potential for the BEAR MARKET to take hold again. Stocks and commodities are the 2 assets not deflating.....well maybe make that the metals....a deflating stock market may bring unexpected rally in the good old greenback.
Duratek
Tuesday, August 02, 2011
Perspective
They spend $75,000 a year.
EXAMPLE: VELERO 'BUYING IN BULL, SELLING IN BEAR"
Does anyone think it's important to know what kind of market you are in?
D
SPX Point and Figure points to prices below 1200
VIX did not skyrocket, so this cannot be seen as fear induced selling or bottom. Point and figure say VIX 40 A TARGET.
First time in 3 years that RR's PMI moved below its 89 DMA. Transports led decline, horrible signal.
If the market is going to turn itself around and REAL PANIC set in, it better do it soon. THE INTENSITY picked up AFTER the President signed the debt ceiling compromise bill into law.
We are still almost 600 SX points from 2009 bottom, and 120 points from rally high. That was NOT a new all time high, the Transports in 2011 did hit an ALL TIME HIGH, in my book that was a HUGE DOW THEORY NON CONFIRMATION.
My readership just trippled, come on folks, stay with me day to day, not just when shit hits the fan.
Duratek
TRANSPORTS LEADING DECLINE
More than just debt ceiling at play, weak retail, GDP, consumer spending and ISM manufacturing data.
Most know the "spending cuts" are mostly control of spendng increases , a statistical play. Congressman saying they voted YES so it would help create jobs, companies would now invest and hire....SURE THEY WILL.
This far into recover we should be closer to 3.6% GDP not flat lined. NOW all of a sudden we will create jobs? IMHO companies may have reached peak earnings, its downhill from here. Data gets revised downard as GDP was years after the fact, the downturn more severe.
Unfunded liabilities not ever mentioned could be 10 X current amount mentioned for deficits. When we get a cross of 50 and 200 and when they both are moving in same direction, that will be IT and longer term trend, and if its down, you DO NOT FIGHT IT, as you don't fight it when they are both rising together, it IS that simple.
D
Monday, August 01, 2011
BOTTOM LINE
Here we are, 3 years into the "recovery" and the stats don't back it up, in fact this will go on record as the WEAKEST RECOVERY FROM A RECESSION....except in stock prices.
We already have seen PEAK GDP, we are now near FLAT GDP at .4%, that isn't growth. We have 9.2% unemployment, no growth there. ISM manufacturing from this AM? just a tad over 50.00, below 50 is contraction, both GDP and ISM show little growth in economy.
You know how Banks are dealing with foreclosed homes now? BULL DOZING them down, can't sell them let's take them down, so then a total loss? AHH still have GAO accounting change, it's worth what they say it is worth.
Hey corporate profits have soared, as the lemmings run after LNKD and any other worthless new fad paying it up, running after the price until it collpases on them like NFLX DID....it doesn't make any sense. You buy stocks when they are low and cheap, not when they are high and expensive.
The government spending is causing horrible deficits, but now the catch 22 is keep it up and default, or see higher interest rates or both. Rubber has met the road. BUT no tax increases, hey Obama extended the Bush cuts....at cost of $800B we didn't have.....I
m a Republican, do NOT want dramatic tax increases, shelter middle class and small business, but do away with dividend tax cut, and let's share in the mess we are in.
I see no comprimise....we'll have to do this all over again, and the cuts will hurt people and slow economy even more...what a mess, maybe sooner than later market will see it to
D
We already have seen PEAK GDP, we are now near FLAT GDP at .4%, that isn't growth. We have 9.2% unemployment, no growth there. ISM manufacturing from this AM? just a tad over 50.00, below 50 is contraction, both GDP and ISM show little growth in economy.
You know how Banks are dealing with foreclosed homes now? BULL DOZING them down, can't sell them let's take them down, so then a total loss? AHH still have GAO accounting change, it's worth what they say it is worth.
Hey corporate profits have soared, as the lemmings run after LNKD and any other worthless new fad paying it up, running after the price until it collpases on them like NFLX DID....it doesn't make any sense. You buy stocks when they are low and cheap, not when they are high and expensive.
The government spending is causing horrible deficits, but now the catch 22 is keep it up and default, or see higher interest rates or both. Rubber has met the road. BUT no tax increases, hey Obama extended the Bush cuts....at cost of $800B we didn't have.....I
m a Republican, do NOT want dramatic tax increases, shelter middle class and small business, but do away with dividend tax cut, and let's share in the mess we are in.
I see no comprimise....we'll have to do this all over again, and the cuts will hurt people and slow economy even more...what a mess, maybe sooner than later market will see it to
D
% OF STOCKS ABOVE 200 MOVING AVERAGE
D
MARKET RECOVERS TO CLOSE LITTLE CHANGED
But is the real story how a 20 point SPX futures bid turned into a route early on with dow off over 100 points at one point. Notice how the rising 200 has helped stem most declines, twice from touching above, now from underneathe. Its rising path is what matters for support.
Also notcie the 50 day, it is not rising and caught the top of recent move (red arrow). It would take a fast turnaround by market to avoid a 50/200 cross. To be a true BEAR CROSS (much more pain usually follows), the 200 should be flat and should really be also falling, when both 50 and 200 are agreeing rising or falling that is your IT or longer term trend.
Always some give and take and head fakes, and traps set.
TO the woodshed went home and healthcare companies, some cut in half with news Medicare payments to be slashed 11%. Add to the list of government contractors like SHAW GROUP...most trading near 52 week lows. SO if you look closer you see different mkt then the one that is only 70 SPX points or so from recent rally highs.
WILL anything being done now, help create jobs? WHY 3 years into supposed recovery are we still talking NO growth economy with 9.2% unemployed yet corporate profits near all time highs and a stock market that doubled off the lows? Obviously the flow of stimulus had a mind of its own and the $T spent did little or nothing.
Savers are getting the firemans hose, 2 yr yields a panic low .36%. THIS is not indicative of a recovery or confidence in the US economy.
LARGEST holders of US Treasuries? #1 The Federal Reserve #2 China #3 Japan
Don't worry about this say most Financial Advisors, heard another one on talk show "this shall pass, don't panic sell..." Comparing this to 1987 or 2008 not good comparison...the selling has not kncoked off that much from the averages, though we are in a 6 month trading range, now at lower end.
We broke below the 200 day moving average, but appear to have recovered back above it. KEY is direction of moving averages which you can visualize in above chart.
Duratek
Also notcie the 50 day, it is not rising and caught the top of recent move (red arrow). It would take a fast turnaround by market to avoid a 50/200 cross. To be a true BEAR CROSS (much more pain usually follows), the 200 should be flat and should really be also falling, when both 50 and 200 are agreeing rising or falling that is your IT or longer term trend.
Always some give and take and head fakes, and traps set.
WILL anything being done now, help create jobs? WHY 3 years into supposed recovery are we still talking NO growth economy with 9.2% unemployed yet corporate profits near all time highs and a stock market that doubled off the lows? Obviously the flow of stimulus had a mind of its own and the $T spent did little or nothing.
Savers are getting the firemans hose, 2 yr yields a panic low .36%. THIS is not indicative of a recovery or confidence in the US economy.
LARGEST holders of US Treasuries? #1 The Federal Reserve #2 China #3 Japan
Don't worry about this say most Financial Advisors, heard another one on talk show "this shall pass, don't panic sell..." Comparing this to 1987 or 2008 not good comparison...the selling has not kncoked off that much from the averages, though we are in a 6 month trading range, now at lower end.
We broke below the 200 day moving average, but appear to have recovered back above it. KEY is direction of moving averages which you can visualize in above chart.
Duratek
CHINESE REACTION TO "DEAL" OUR #2 SUGAR DADDY AFTER FED
CHINA SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX
(Shanghai: 000001.SS )| Index Value: | 2,703.78 |
|---|---|
| Trade Time: | 3:00AM EDT |
| Change: |  2.05 (0.08%) |
| Prev Close: | 2,701.73 |
|---|---|
| Open: | 2,697.57 |
| Day's Range: | 2,688.53 - 2,712.89 |
| 52wk Range: | 2,564.84 - 3,186.72 |
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Currency in CNY.
SPX clinging to its 200 SMA, important zone.
D
DEAL OR NO DEAL STILL TROUBLE
ISM manufactring index comes in barely above CONTRACTION reading, the economy has slowed to a crawl, were it not for companies borrowing like mad to buy back stock, earnings would not look so chipper.
A 20 + SPX premkt handle is now RED, sell the news WAS right after the open. MONEY FLEEING into 2 year yields down to only .36% one of the lowest yields in history.
You want to sleep at night, I'm in cash 100%....well....sleep a little as they burn our currency
D
A 20 + SPX premkt handle is now RED, sell the news WAS right after the open. MONEY FLEEING into 2 year yields down to only .36% one of the lowest yields in history.
You want to sleep at night, I'm in cash 100%....well....sleep a little as they burn our currency
D
Sunday, July 31, 2011
DEBT CEILING DEAL NEAR....GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS
"In other words, the economic stimulus the government deployed in an attempt to get the economy back on track are all but gone. And now, spending cuts are on the way.
"The economic indicators are pretty disturbing in light of the fact that policy is going in the opposite direction of a normal response to an economic slowdown," said Chad Stone, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities."
http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/29/news/economy/spending_cuts/index.htm
Is this REALLY the backdrop to an expanding bull market?
"The economic indicators are pretty disturbing in light of the fact that policy is going in the opposite direction of a normal response to an economic slowdown," said Chad Stone, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities."
http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/29/news/economy/spending_cuts/index.htm
Is this REALLY the backdrop to an expanding bull market?
Saturday, July 30, 2011
TO THE BRINK
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/06/AR2010100606772.html
REAL GDP is barely growing in the low 1% range, yet how are corporate profits hitting all time highs?
"Some companies are buying back shares partly because they don't want to invest in developing new products or services while consumer demand remains weak, analysts said.
"They don't know what they want to do with all the cash they're sitting on," said Zachary Karabell, president of RiverTwice Research.
Historically low interest rates are also prompting some companies to borrow to repurchase shares.
Microsoft, for instance, borrowed $4.75 billion last month by issuing new bonds at rock-bottom interest rates and announced it would use some of that money to buy back shares. The company already has nearly $37 billion in cash, but much of that money is being held by its operations overseas. The tech company is reluctant to repatriate the money, because it would get hit with a huge corporate tax bill.
A share buyback is a quick way to make a stock more attractive to Wall Street. It improves a closely watched metric known as earnings per share, which divides a company's profit by the total number of shares on the market.
Such a move can produce a sudden burst of interest in a stock, improving its price.
Among the biggest buybacks so far this year: Hewlett-Packard, the world's biggest maker of personal computers, said in August it would spend $10 billion buying its shares. Its shares rose 1.5 percent after the announcement."
So another issue with LOW Interest rates is companies are lured into borrowing and using it NOT to create jobs but to buy back shares, make earnings APPEAR better and so when they CASH out to the bag holders they get more. WHAT about ALL the cash these companies have? why borrow if they really have all that cash?
The economy is limping along at a rate that cannot sustain economic activity, which in turn is what helps to create jobs, which in turn allows people to borrow andbuy homes, which in turn causes people to buy stuff for their homes, which in turn spurs additional consumer spending and increase in the velocity of money.
Stimulus used has created very little except a rise in stock prices. Fed has bought $2.5T of US Treasuries and now holds more than any entity. China holds around $1.7T.
The game of chicken being played between the 2 parties now is very dangerous and may have already done heavy damage to economy. ALL this is happening with near lowest long term rates in history.
A loss of credit rating would cause US interest rates to climb, hurting everybody. OUR CURRENCY which is mandated to the FED Reserve to be protected is being anything but that, a spit away from its historic LOW in value. The AIM is to FORCE YOU into risky assets in attempt to find yield.
"TIME IN THE MARKET" IN FOR THE LONG HAUL" LONG TERM BUY AND HOLD" "THE MARKET ALWAYS GOES UP"
I was in a branch of B of A Friday and I heard this from a Bank official talking to a depositor on the phone....."yes you should keep making 401 contributions, over 10 years the return on stocks is 10%".....I don't think that is actually true do you? The market has gone nowhere over last 10 years, but I can say it surely hasn't returned 10% a year over that time! TOO many people paid to help others no far too little about what they are peddling.
YES over time, if you live long enough, the stock market always goes up.
SInce January there have been 10 90% volume days....9 were down days only ONE was up! Volume has whithered away yet the market remains in a 6 month trading range. THIS is why there is no bear call from me yet. I SEE warning signs, I have said if it were me I would RAISE cash levels....you cannot buy discounted stocks if you don't have cash.
WE know there is a gov't debt bubble, come Tuesday does it pop? VIX moved up to above 25, this does show an elevated level of FEAR, but FAR from PANIC.
I have been watching the sector related to gov't contractors like SHAW GROUP and a few others, they are mostly at or near 52 week lows.
To cut Gov't spending, agencies have to shrink, budgets have to be cut, programs cut or reduced....and could lead to government employees losing their jobs.
If gov't cuts spending, if taxes on companies and middle America are reduced or not raised, we can choose where to spend our money vs govt....and we do much better job creating economic activity than the govt does.
WE have promised too much and we can't afford it. 40% of Americans get 90% of ALL their living cash from Social Security payments, this is NOT how the program was originally set up.
What does this say about our prosperity if 40% of Americans rely on just SS to get buy in retirement? what happened to savings, stock holdings?
Majority of Americans have wealth tied to HOME VALUES!!! AND what has been targeted by the (wish was abolished ) FED RESERVE has been (in their own words) ASSETS....the STOCK MARKET...and I don't think this in their mandate.
Banks CANNOT attract savers, which we use deposits for investment as they don't pay ANY INTEREST!!!!!!!
A WHOLE SECTOR of our society, is being SCREWED and HOSED because they don't want risk, at 70 you can't make up for steep losses, you run out of time. THERE IS NO SAFE OUTLET VEHICLE to gain good interest as investment.....this retarded imbalance cannot be good.
Your/mine cash that you don't want in the stock market, you know your money is used so the insiders can cash out shares and maintain their opulent lifestyles, you are told holding stock is a big deal....it's only a big deal for the privileged few who get shares for next to nothing and then sell them to you...and you hope to sell them to someone else and so on.....and its all just a PONZI SCHEME, so you better get in LOW and hope to sell high. A MOVE from lows of SPX 666 to near 1340 isn't good enough? can we go higher? YES....but do you believe stocks are now priced for big breakouts to the upside? are you then buying now early in the trend? or trying to catch the last bit of final move should it come?
Are we early in an economic renaissance?
WHY haven't anyone been arrested for their part in the financial crisis of the history of this country, not even ONE SHREW? SO no one did anyting wrong? The dude from countrywide? no one? these guys made Bernie ebbers from Worldcom look like a saint....the system is bought off....and that's how it is, as we teeter on the brink.
Many joining armed forces to get a job, not serve the country, it's that bad. The government is becoming the largest employer???? Pays the most with the most benefits......the size of gov't is grotesque and eating our economy whole.
SO as you watch this drama play out, and see both sides fighting for what they stand for, what kind of comprimise is possible? How do companies or investors make investments based on an uncertain outcome? THEY CANNOT
The adjusted money supply, the Treasuries and other paper that sit on the FED Reserve balance sheets, the worlwide bailouts of countries.....we are awash in paper....it has risen like a flag up a pole......its gets destroyed or it has to go somewhere....and that is part why GOLD stands at new highs.....a SLOW WORLD ECONOMY....deflating housing and economic activity and INFLATION at the edge of getting out of hand.
Is this thee fork in the road I am to see the world economies at the beginning of some new wodnerful expansion? or already past the best it could be.
Never before this far into "recovery" never before has so much been spent and done to gain sustainability and such futile anemic reults.....except stock prices. And I am afraid at some point we will reach that tipping point where the weak hands get killed again when the distribution is over and the insiders no longer play the game of buy the higher price.
Duratek
REAL GDP is barely growing in the low 1% range, yet how are corporate profits hitting all time highs?
"Some companies are buying back shares partly because they don't want to invest in developing new products or services while consumer demand remains weak, analysts said.
"They don't know what they want to do with all the cash they're sitting on," said Zachary Karabell, president of RiverTwice Research.
Historically low interest rates are also prompting some companies to borrow to repurchase shares.
Microsoft, for instance, borrowed $4.75 billion last month by issuing new bonds at rock-bottom interest rates and announced it would use some of that money to buy back shares. The company already has nearly $37 billion in cash, but much of that money is being held by its operations overseas. The tech company is reluctant to repatriate the money, because it would get hit with a huge corporate tax bill.
A share buyback is a quick way to make a stock more attractive to Wall Street. It improves a closely watched metric known as earnings per share, which divides a company's profit by the total number of shares on the market.
Such a move can produce a sudden burst of interest in a stock, improving its price.
Among the biggest buybacks so far this year: Hewlett-Packard, the world's biggest maker of personal computers, said in August it would spend $10 billion buying its shares. Its shares rose 1.5 percent after the announcement."
So another issue with LOW Interest rates is companies are lured into borrowing and using it NOT to create jobs but to buy back shares, make earnings APPEAR better and so when they CASH out to the bag holders they get more. WHAT about ALL the cash these companies have? why borrow if they really have all that cash?
The economy is limping along at a rate that cannot sustain economic activity, which in turn is what helps to create jobs, which in turn allows people to borrow andbuy homes, which in turn causes people to buy stuff for their homes, which in turn spurs additional consumer spending and increase in the velocity of money.
Stimulus used has created very little except a rise in stock prices. Fed has bought $2.5T of US Treasuries and now holds more than any entity. China holds around $1.7T.
The game of chicken being played between the 2 parties now is very dangerous and may have already done heavy damage to economy. ALL this is happening with near lowest long term rates in history.
A loss of credit rating would cause US interest rates to climb, hurting everybody. OUR CURRENCY which is mandated to the FED Reserve to be protected is being anything but that, a spit away from its historic LOW in value. The AIM is to FORCE YOU into risky assets in attempt to find yield.
"TIME IN THE MARKET" IN FOR THE LONG HAUL" LONG TERM BUY AND HOLD" "THE MARKET ALWAYS GOES UP"
I was in a branch of B of A Friday and I heard this from a Bank official talking to a depositor on the phone....."yes you should keep making 401 contributions, over 10 years the return on stocks is 10%".....I don't think that is actually true do you? The market has gone nowhere over last 10 years, but I can say it surely hasn't returned 10% a year over that time! TOO many people paid to help others no far too little about what they are peddling.
YES over time, if you live long enough, the stock market always goes up.
SInce January there have been 10 90% volume days....9 were down days only ONE was up! Volume has whithered away yet the market remains in a 6 month trading range. THIS is why there is no bear call from me yet. I SEE warning signs, I have said if it were me I would RAISE cash levels....you cannot buy discounted stocks if you don't have cash.
WE know there is a gov't debt bubble, come Tuesday does it pop? VIX moved up to above 25, this does show an elevated level of FEAR, but FAR from PANIC.
I have been watching the sector related to gov't contractors like SHAW GROUP and a few others, they are mostly at or near 52 week lows.
To cut Gov't spending, agencies have to shrink, budgets have to be cut, programs cut or reduced....and could lead to government employees losing their jobs.
If gov't cuts spending, if taxes on companies and middle America are reduced or not raised, we can choose where to spend our money vs govt....and we do much better job creating economic activity than the govt does.
WE have promised too much and we can't afford it. 40% of Americans get 90% of ALL their living cash from Social Security payments, this is NOT how the program was originally set up.
What does this say about our prosperity if 40% of Americans rely on just SS to get buy in retirement? what happened to savings, stock holdings?
Majority of Americans have wealth tied to HOME VALUES!!! AND what has been targeted by the (wish was abolished ) FED RESERVE has been (in their own words) ASSETS....the STOCK MARKET...and I don't think this in their mandate.
Banks CANNOT attract savers, which we use deposits for investment as they don't pay ANY INTEREST!!!!!!!
A WHOLE SECTOR of our society, is being SCREWED and HOSED because they don't want risk, at 70 you can't make up for steep losses, you run out of time. THERE IS NO SAFE OUTLET VEHICLE to gain good interest as investment.....this retarded imbalance cannot be good.
Your/mine cash that you don't want in the stock market, you know your money is used so the insiders can cash out shares and maintain their opulent lifestyles, you are told holding stock is a big deal....it's only a big deal for the privileged few who get shares for next to nothing and then sell them to you...and you hope to sell them to someone else and so on.....and its all just a PONZI SCHEME, so you better get in LOW and hope to sell high. A MOVE from lows of SPX 666 to near 1340 isn't good enough? can we go higher? YES....but do you believe stocks are now priced for big breakouts to the upside? are you then buying now early in the trend? or trying to catch the last bit of final move should it come?
Are we early in an economic renaissance?
WHY haven't anyone been arrested for their part in the financial crisis of the history of this country, not even ONE SHREW? SO no one did anyting wrong? The dude from countrywide? no one? these guys made Bernie ebbers from Worldcom look like a saint....the system is bought off....and that's how it is, as we teeter on the brink.
Many joining armed forces to get a job, not serve the country, it's that bad. The government is becoming the largest employer???? Pays the most with the most benefits......the size of gov't is grotesque and eating our economy whole.
SO as you watch this drama play out, and see both sides fighting for what they stand for, what kind of comprimise is possible? How do companies or investors make investments based on an uncertain outcome? THEY CANNOT
The adjusted money supply, the Treasuries and other paper that sit on the FED Reserve balance sheets, the worlwide bailouts of countries.....we are awash in paper....it has risen like a flag up a pole......its gets destroyed or it has to go somewhere....and that is part why GOLD stands at new highs.....a SLOW WORLD ECONOMY....deflating housing and economic activity and INFLATION at the edge of getting out of hand.
Is this thee fork in the road I am to see the world economies at the beginning of some new wodnerful expansion? or already past the best it could be.
Never before this far into "recovery" never before has so much been spent and done to gain sustainability and such futile anemic reults.....except stock prices. And I am afraid at some point we will reach that tipping point where the weak hands get killed again when the distribution is over and the insiders no longer play the game of buy the higher price.
Duratek
ARGENTINA USA?
"The U.S. is in danger of reaching a generational tipping point at which older Americans have the clout to vote themselves benefits that sap the strength of the younger generation -- benefits that can never be repeated. Kotlikoff argues that we may have reached that point already. He worries that the U.S. could become Argentina, which went from one of the world's richest to lower-middle income in a century of chronic mismanagement"
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/113222/why-debt-crisis-is-even-worse-than-you-think-businessweek?mod=bb-budgeting
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/113222/why-debt-crisis-is-even-worse-than-you-think-businessweek?mod=bb-budgeting
Friday, July 29, 2011
BIG HAVE AND THE NOTS
Bill Gates sold 5 MIL shares at $27 plus per for over $135 MILLION, he still owns 551 MILLION shares! worth about $15 B. The little plankton eaters can't wait to plunk down money for LNKD etc ....they may make some money....stock shares are all about the INSIDERS gaining liquidity to cash out...why you see them now going into DEBT to buyback shares
IS ALU A BUY HERE?
**Update 8/1 Sold into open, feel stock may try and fill lower end of gap....broke even. $3.50 SHOULD be good support.
from seeking alpha: http://seekingalpha.com/article/283021-top-buy-and-sell-ideas-based-on-thursday-s-biggest-losers?source=yahoo
"The S&P 500 ($SPX) and the broader Russell 3000 ($RUA) dropped 0.3% on Thursday, July 28th, 2011. Of the 4,600 stocks that were tracked, the top 25 losers that closed above $1 at market-close on July 28th and fell 10% or more were analyzed to determine if they would continue going down, or if they would reverse their moves going forward. The following are the best buy and sell ideas based on that analysis:
Buy Alcatel-Lucent ADS (ALU): ALU, the telecommunications giant, is the result of a 2006 merger between France-based Alcatel and U.S.-based Lucent Technologies. It operates in over 130 countries worldwide, and is a leading provider of telecommunications equipment and services to fixed line, wireless, and internet service providers. It is also the world leader in ADSL1 equipment. ALU shares were down 20.4% on Thursday, and they are up 32.1% YTD.
The company reported that in the June 2011 quarter, they swung to a profit of 5c, beating analyst estimates of 2c. Revenue, however, came in under at $5.67 billion versus the $5.73 billion estimate, and the company confirmed that it would meet its fiscal year targets. ALU trades at a forward 7-8 P/E, at the bottom of its historic range, and also at a steep discount when compared to most of its peers, including JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU) that trades at a forward 12 P/E, Tellabs Inc. (TLAB) that trades at a forward 100+ P/E, Numerex Corp. (NMRX) that trades at a forward 17 P/E, Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) that trades at a forward 10 P/E, and others. The entire sector was driven lower yesterday due to continuing concerns over the macro-economy and its impacts on enterprise spending as well cuts in government budgets and spending, and also concerns that network investment by telecom service providers may be slowing down.
We believe that while concerns over the economy and carrier spending may be valid, ALU maybe the best value in the sector, trading at a historically low P/E and at a steep discount to its peers, while executing a turnaround and projecting earnings rising from 10c loss in 2010 to 28c profit in 2011 and rising to 51c profit in 2012. The stock continues to trade at lows, down almost 80% from its 2004 high, and is currently in free fall along with the rest of the networking stocks.
We would wait for it to bottom and buy in stages so as to take advantage of any further weakness. The stock has firm support in the $3.50s, so the downside appears limited whereas the upside is high in the long-term as the company continues its turnaround, increasing revenues at a modest pace along with rapid earnings growth. It seems that analysts would agree with us, as they have a mean target of $7.26, with a high of $10, well above current $4.01 price; and of the 15 analysts that cover the company, nine rate it at buy/strong buy, four at hold, and one each rate it at underperform and sell."
I bought some this AM, I think its in that GAP FILL RANGE though at higher limits. HUGE amount of volume on th down day, I am hoping that wrung out majority of weak hands.
D
from seeking alpha: http://seekingalpha.com/article/283021-top-buy-and-sell-ideas-based-on-thursday-s-biggest-losers?source=yahoo
"The S&P 500 ($SPX) and the broader Russell 3000 ($RUA) dropped 0.3% on Thursday, July 28th, 2011. Of the 4,600 stocks that were tracked, the top 25 losers that closed above $1 at market-close on July 28th and fell 10% or more were analyzed to determine if they would continue going down, or if they would reverse their moves going forward. The following are the best buy and sell ideas based on that analysis:
Buy Alcatel-Lucent ADS (ALU): ALU, the telecommunications giant, is the result of a 2006 merger between France-based Alcatel and U.S.-based Lucent Technologies. It operates in over 130 countries worldwide, and is a leading provider of telecommunications equipment and services to fixed line, wireless, and internet service providers. It is also the world leader in ADSL1 equipment. ALU shares were down 20.4% on Thursday, and they are up 32.1% YTD.
The company reported that in the June 2011 quarter, they swung to a profit of 5c, beating analyst estimates of 2c. Revenue, however, came in under at $5.67 billion versus the $5.73 billion estimate, and the company confirmed that it would meet its fiscal year targets. ALU trades at a forward 7-8 P/E, at the bottom of its historic range, and also at a steep discount when compared to most of its peers, including JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU) that trades at a forward 12 P/E, Tellabs Inc. (TLAB) that trades at a forward 100+ P/E, Numerex Corp. (NMRX) that trades at a forward 17 P/E, Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) that trades at a forward 10 P/E, and others. The entire sector was driven lower yesterday due to continuing concerns over the macro-economy and its impacts on enterprise spending as well cuts in government budgets and spending, and also concerns that network investment by telecom service providers may be slowing down.
We believe that while concerns over the economy and carrier spending may be valid, ALU maybe the best value in the sector, trading at a historically low P/E and at a steep discount to its peers, while executing a turnaround and projecting earnings rising from 10c loss in 2010 to 28c profit in 2011 and rising to 51c profit in 2012. The stock continues to trade at lows, down almost 80% from its 2004 high, and is currently in free fall along with the rest of the networking stocks.
We would wait for it to bottom and buy in stages so as to take advantage of any further weakness. The stock has firm support in the $3.50s, so the downside appears limited whereas the upside is high in the long-term as the company continues its turnaround, increasing revenues at a modest pace along with rapid earnings growth. It seems that analysts would agree with us, as they have a mean target of $7.26, with a high of $10, well above current $4.01 price; and of the 15 analysts that cover the company, nine rate it at buy/strong buy, four at hold, and one each rate it at underperform and sell."
I bought some this AM, I think its in that GAP FILL RANGE though at higher limits. HUGE amount of volume on th down day, I am hoping that wrung out majority of weak hands.
D
I TOLD YOU SO
That's my post of the day.....if people won't listen, what the F am I doing this for? The overall I don't care attitude is deafening, people won't even try to help themselves.
AS you all get circle jerked by the politicos, our country is going down the tubes, no jobs, insiders still getting paid, little guy and saver getting hosed, what else is new.
Break the 200 moving average and watch this shit roll downhill. After an AM gap down we are still not broken down the lower zone, but we are going to take a real good sniff at it.
I would put a chart up but I don't know what you want to look at, if you don't leave a comment once in a year or so, I haven't a clue how to serve you, or how to show you better what is in my head.
I don't know you, you don't know me, who is this guy who sometimes rants, puts these squiggly charts up, sometimes leaving behind an essay on how things are or may become?
I'm just some guy who has spent the last 25 years of his life trying to help people and myself, by emersing myself in the subject, spending these years studying, figuring out who knows their shit and who doesn't and have become a free thinker.
I have called the last 2 bear markets, I have said we are in a long term (SECULAR) Bear phase, and that the current rally was doomed to fail and there was better than 50/50 chance of TESTING the 2009 lows.....that's who I am. I've issued a TOP warning, but the technicals have not quite issued a BEAR MKT has begun. You look at some of the action, as stupid people bid up APPL stock to above $400 and NFLZ to $300 and LINKED IN and so forth, now all of a sudden Dunkin hole is a smash.....any new issue....all the while 9.2% OFFICIAL (BS) unemployment, under 2% GDP growth at the same time CORPORATE PROFITS ARE SOARING TO NEW RECORD?????? WTF???
2+2 don't + 4
Duratek
AS you all get circle jerked by the politicos, our country is going down the tubes, no jobs, insiders still getting paid, little guy and saver getting hosed, what else is new.
Break the 200 moving average and watch this shit roll downhill. After an AM gap down we are still not broken down the lower zone, but we are going to take a real good sniff at it.
I would put a chart up but I don't know what you want to look at, if you don't leave a comment once in a year or so, I haven't a clue how to serve you, or how to show you better what is in my head.
I don't know you, you don't know me, who is this guy who sometimes rants, puts these squiggly charts up, sometimes leaving behind an essay on how things are or may become?
I'm just some guy who has spent the last 25 years of his life trying to help people and myself, by emersing myself in the subject, spending these years studying, figuring out who knows their shit and who doesn't and have become a free thinker.
I have called the last 2 bear markets, I have said we are in a long term (SECULAR) Bear phase, and that the current rally was doomed to fail and there was better than 50/50 chance of TESTING the 2009 lows.....that's who I am. I've issued a TOP warning, but the technicals have not quite issued a BEAR MKT has begun. You look at some of the action, as stupid people bid up APPL stock to above $400 and NFLZ to $300 and LINKED IN and so forth, now all of a sudden Dunkin hole is a smash.....any new issue....all the while 9.2% OFFICIAL (BS) unemployment, under 2% GDP growth at the same time CORPORATE PROFITS ARE SOARING TO NEW RECORD?????? WTF???
2+2 don't + 4
Duratek
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
6 MONTH TRADING ZONE
The private work force keeps shrinking, the government workforce keeps growing. Stimulus, ZERO % FED funds rate, gaming, have helped buoy stocks, done little for employment, housing and general economy. I won't say we shouldn't have done something, I am saying it hasn't been effective and money flowed to places not desired, like commodities, putting the breaks on consumer spending and some corporate profits.
I DO NOT SEE STOCKS AS A BARGAIN HERE. So pass a debt ceiling deal or not, that is short term stuff, long term......we got a shitload of problems and issues no one seems to want to tackle
D
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