Monday, August 01, 2011

MARKET RECOVERS TO CLOSE LITTLE CHANGED

But is the real story how a 20 point SPX futures bid turned into a route early on with dow off over 100 points at one point. Notice how the rising 200 has helped stem most declines, twice from touching above, now from underneathe. Its rising path is what matters for support.
Also notcie the 50 day, it is not rising and caught the top of recent move (red arrow). It would take a fast turnaround by market to avoid a 50/200 cross. To be a true BEAR CROSS (much more pain usually follows), the 200 should be flat and should really be also falling, when both 50 and 200 are agreeing rising or falling that is your IT or longer term trend.

Always some give and take and head fakes, and traps set.


TO the woodshed went home and healthcare companies, some cut in half with news Medicare payments to be slashed 11%. Add to the list of government contractors like SHAW GROUP...most trading near 52 week lows. SO if you look closer you see different mkt then the one that is only 70 SPX points or so from recent rally highs.

WILL anything being done now, help create jobs? WHY 3 years into supposed recovery are we still talking NO growth economy with 9.2% unemployed yet corporate profits near all time highs and a stock market that doubled off the lows? Obviously the flow of stimulus had a mind of its own and the $T spent did little or nothing.
Savers are getting the firemans hose, 2 yr yields a panic low .36%. THIS is not indicative of a recovery or confidence in the US economy.
LARGEST holders of US Treasuries? #1 The Federal Reserve #2 China #3 Japan

Don't worry about this say most Financial Advisors, heard another one on talk show "this shall pass, don't panic sell..." Comparing this to 1987 or 2008 not good comparison...the selling has not kncoked off that much from the averages, though we are in a 6 month trading range, now at lower end.

We broke below the 200 day moving average, but appear to have recovered back above it. KEY is direction of moving averages which you can visualize in above chart.

Duratek

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