Price has gone through support like hot knife and butter. And for first time since cyclical bull began, price has fallen below the 400 day simple moving average. It has lost support from its fan lines, and has broken every line from those 2009 lows. VIX fear index at multi year highs. Yields have fallen below levels of 2009 panic, especially the 2 yr yields. A DEBT DOWNGRADE did not push interest rates higher.
Even as some stock prices begin looking interesting, the buyers are not YET stepping forward, so as margin calls and hedging positions get unwound, maybe even overseas traders needing liquidity so they sell US positions, all aiding in the spiral. ETF's add on way up, now many complain on the way down.
I tried to warn, hopefully some of you got more defensive. Some of what I read and now believe is that we are in EARLY INNINGS and if help us all THE SECULAR BEAR HAS RETURNED, I have pointed to and still think 666 2009 lows get tested.
One of main reasons we moved from there in 2009 was the GAO relaxing accounting standards for the banks, and they didn't have to carry on the books the devalued mortgages at current market prices....even as values continued down. This IMHO made financial earnings, a BIG part of the S&P 500 a mirage.
Worldwide contagion, economic data not indicative of a healthy recovery, but stocks persisted in their climb until about 6 months ago.In July the SPX made a lower high and formed a right should in a head and shoulders patter, broke its neckline and now has fallen BELOW where that projected....again who you listen to warned of any of this? STOCKS ARE CHEAP they kept saying...look at earnings.
How do you know if you aren't looking at PEAK EARNINGS? Every radio show I tune in, the same old thing....I'm buying APPL here, stay in market, Im buying Ford. Cramer liked ford at $16, bet he likes it even more at $10...why does ANYONE tune in that jerk?
CNBS first in news.....losing viewers like crazy. DEBT BINGE is unwinding, who knows how much leverage, and what is being hidden. US DEBT DOWNGRADE...what does President come out and say?" G-d bless our troops....we will always be a AAA country..." if you say it enought times it is true, PRES we actually, well we lost that dude! He lives in a dreamworld, and no way he gets reelected....
If the BEAR MKT persists through the next President, he'll go too. WHO didn't know 1% rates and now 0% rates will cause imbalances? GOLD ABOVE $1,700 !! SAVERS BRUTALLY PENALIZED and now to get yield, income....you aren't left with much.
Sentiment and indicators of economic vitality will be hurt by poor stockmarket performance and WILL IMPACT spending decisions.
It really is felling like this IS THE TIME the abuses of the last 30 plus years have come home to roost and except for GOLD it feels like deflation and Kondratielf Winter
here is Martin Armstrong on SP downgrade
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Standard%20and%20Poors%20Downgrade%2008-06-2011.pdf
666 on the S&P 500 was never tested IMHO, and it seems likely to me, that before this crushing wave of selling in the continuation of the great bear market, prices may even fall beneath that.
A very good chance all many can now think about is how to get out, and so rallies may get sold and we just have this viscious cycle until prices getlow enough for sustainable rally.
D
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment