Saturday, August 06, 2011

HISTORIC DIVIDEND YIELD FOR S&P 500 AND STRIP AWAY

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/

Looking for signs of market tops or bottoms, 2% yield historically more indicative of a TOP not a bottom, however many will argue that LOW Treasury yields make stocks attractive. 6% yields are more like it at Secular bottoms.

Below we have a chart of the DOW showing the 2009 bottom and rally, I have drawn 3 "FAN" lines to arrive at Resistance and support points and the break of the 3rd fan line is not particularly a good sign

Fan Principle Chart Example

http://tradingsim.com/blog/fan-principle/

"Remember that the break of the third trend line is usually the indication of trend reversal."

Like a wounded animal, the market is VERY oversold by many measures, so be ready for more wild swings. The SP debt downgrade MAY not show in the futures come Monday, given oversold, it IS possible already discounted.

Bear markets NOT BULL MARKETS strip away excess and reveal values.....IMHO this process has just begun.

Duratek

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