ONE FOR THE ROAD FRI PRE-MARKET COMMENTS

I made my case for this AM's job data being a HUGE miss, but if it isn't we'll see why in NET/BIRTH DEATH data.

Reaction to such perhaps is more important then the data itself.

SINCE 1982 when Greenspan took over the FED, he has launched one of the MOST AGGRESSIVE interest rate cutting sprees in history.

before him was Paul Volker, who stepped in and raised rates to squash rampant inflation which brought us record gold prices of the 70's.

For almost 25 years we have had a Bond Bull Market with falling rates.

To prick the bubble Greenspan raised rates maybe 3 X and you know the results.

Then he lowered them 13 X to 45 year lows. That set off a Cyclical Bull Market (usually lasting avg 3 years) Prior Bull was Secular in nature.

Just as in 1930's after collapse, lowered rates and crisis monetary policy has engineered a recovery and recoup of about 50% of the bear market losses (SPX).

But then in 1930-1932, is when the BEAR really caught fire, and destroyed the many, NOT 1929 CRASH!

I believe along with other Bears, this is going to repeat. Could the market continue higher?

You know it can, but I personally don't feel the risk is worth the reward, remember HOW far we have come!

I prefer to step aside or take a small short position thru RYDEX or URSA to position, this action is NOT reccomended for the AVG investor...again, for any bet you don't go ALL IN! Your gambles MUST always be measured and managable, and do your best to keep your losses small.

My charts show potential that rates could surge higher, but we have come to pivotal point, as I am typing this the JOB DATA will already have been released...and bonds will have reacted.

We don't begin another great bull burdoned by historic debt either or PE RATIO'S found more at previous TOPS than BOTTOMS.

More later, or Sat.

Duratek