Friday, August 05, 2005

WHAT I SAID LAST NIGHT as to YIELDS and NOW

"Back to TNX I can't always go 100% focus here so Ionly just plotted this out. we hit the 61.8% FIB retrace from the 2005 HIGH...within a smidge of it.had I grasped that little ditty, I would have swung into 5 or 10 years to some extent, BUT andmy analysis bears it out as to POTENTIAL JOB DATA UGLINESS FRI.......the chart does NOT entirely bear out a long position, the conundrum!But the pattern of the stochastics as you might observe has been consistant at each top, as it is now.My guess is that trend is still UP for yields, but tomorrow yields will fall hard, IF we get our miss."

As suggested, we did NOT get our MISS, yields are rising this AM, I haven't run my chart but I think it might suggest we challenge 2005 high in yields, tonights EWT will add some info I will pass on SAT.

PRE-MARKET can be tricky, less liquidity, low volume, so we must guage reaction by CLOSING NUMBERS ONLY!

JUNE saw job gains of 148K, but as I said the "model" added 184K so we actually lost 40K jobs without it?

Now we have opposite, took away 76K report sh0ws 207K added for miracle 283K plus or minus a tad...all STATISTICAL PAPER annotations. I would feel better if work week was on the rise! and help wanted was on the rise. they are not.

If we AVG in the last 2 months WITHOUT NET BIRTH MAGIC we get avg 121,500 Jobs added, if more correct shows weak job performance.

MR Market will let us know.

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/ Futures turned DOWN on the data, YIELDS ROSE. imagine that!http://goldseek.com (gold dollar bond data)

Duratek

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