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Anonymous said... JBR
D

Thanks for your comments.If you are 100% in treasury MMF, in my opinion you are being modest since that would make you very good, not lucky. Similarly, like you, I am in T-Bills (in my name not street name, at Treasury Direct, no institutional or counterparty risk). I am smart enough to know I am not smart enough to time this. My only risk is being wrong on the deflation vs inflation call. It could happen but I doubt it will work out that way. If that turns out to be the case I will need to hedge (ie, 50% gold and 50% cash). IMHO, we are now in a phase that is not business (trading) as usual. This is the way the market works. It works the same way for long enough to condition everyone to respond to specific patterns. But then, every 80 years or so, the rules change just long enough to exert maximum pain and bankrupt the most people possible. Now is such a time. A few will take the big risks and win (more likely by luck than not) but most will lose that bet. I think we are facing an ongoing cascading of built up structural problems and devolving emotions. Discovery by the masses of the magnitude of the underlying structural problems will inevitably lead to ongoing deleveraging along with escalating anxiety, confusion, and fear punctuated with political errors (ie, "fixes" leading to horrible unintended consequences) and periodic devastating black swans. I would need to be a hell of a lot smarter than I am to trade around THAT environment. Until and unless the macro environment changes, I intend to stay hunkered down for now and keep my powder dry. My number one tip for survival: don't be greedy. jbr
12:12 AM


Duratek said...
JBR,

You are VERY ASTUTE and an asset to my blog, asppreciate you taking time to share your thoughts....I realize I am talking to someone who has been paying attentiion, maybe even in the financial field.Being short is OK, not for everyone, hard to time, DUG moved sharp last 5 trading days...who called the top to oil prices to the day? Me personally, I was waiting for that one day ZUTZ move and reversal...above $150...below $125 might be sign top is in....so I am watching OIL very close...a close back above $140 may be warning...IRAN keeping many on edge...saftey to gold....Most of my market buddies and gals own BAGS OF GOLD AND SILVER.....some looking for pullback sharp before final top is in...up sharply today to $940 area..top is %1,033.I wont be able to see the bottom for refiners until it has past, prices keep falling....I am snooping hard there....when OIL CRASHES they should recover...gas consumption and crack spread hurting them.GE is FRI AM and last time sparked a 500 pt move up....we continue oversold...setting 1 of 2 scenarios....a HUGE MOVE in either direction looming.VIX to me says washout not here yet....if GE Misses a LOWERED expectation game (THEY OWN CNBC !!!) then I think the worst kind of sucking sound will be heard....but I have no crystal ball, when it becomes like Las Vegas......you "hunker down" we will get a technical all's clear not TOO FAR above eventual bottom....patience.

D