My bear market bottom index has been one of my most valued indicators, and to my knowledge it is unique to me.
AS such I will share with you its past history. In 1998 we had LTCM crisis, and the markets tanked, in the midst of the mother-of-all-bull-markets.
My reading back tested to 1998 was21.62 and when this bottomed here was one the greatest times to buy in history of market.....with its run to 2000 top.
Then bear killed market, and in 2002 the market bottomed, my index reading was 20.54 again a GREAT time to buy as it turned out.
Because of how I derive this ratio indicator and is a monthly longer term data feed, I think it will work again...though tere is NO guarantee....but I will share its progress with you and try to give its level on Saturdays, a good reason to check back....
Current reading on my " BEAR BOTTOM INDICATOR" is 52.0...rising slightly this week.
Will the previous low reading of 51 be THIS market bottom? No I dont think so.
The rally was perpetrated by NEWS, not buying enthusiasm as can be detected.
There was NO 90% up day following last 90% down day.
This bottom came 2 weeks after last 90% day.......and the RALLY was mainly the beaten down stuff whcih benefitted from NEWS related items like naked shorting and Fed back stopping of FNM and FRE.
SO walks like a duck, quacks like a duck....it's a bear.
My technical analysis probably wont get me in at THE Bottom, but it should get me into the SWEET SPOT with LESS risk and if and when NEW BULL or multi month rally comes....I am confident I'll be on for the ride.
D
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2 comments:
Thanks for sharing your Bear Bottom Indicator with us. High reading is then bearish and a low reading bullish? So you're still bearish at the moment. If you're right, this bounce from 1200 (S&P500) is only a bear rally or short covering. It should halt near a 38.2 or 50% retracement of last bear leg from 05/19/08. From here bear should resume, right? Key factors could be €, US$ and oil.But what if US$ is going to surge and oil goes down? Could we expect a double bottom, 1200 bottom1, now a bounce of 38/50%, then a retest of 1200, bottom 2. There is also a similarity with 2002: a triple bottom, 07/24/02 first bottom, bounce up, 10/10/02 retest of low 07/24/02, up, 03/12/03 retest low and also end of bear. But I think for now 1200 isn't the low and bear will resum after this bounce. The reason for this, the down legg from 05/19/08 is subdivided into 5 waves. So we can expect another down leg unfolding into 5 waves or an ABC zigzag down. Thanks for sharring your technical view.
mt,
Thank you for sharing with our blog, it is only as good as those who add to it....my opinion and views is just the beginning in the journey of independent thought, I only hope to open that door.
We might need to go back down and test the recent lows and as of today Lowry's isnt buying that a low is in place.
Before getting to our ultimate destination, I suspect ANOTHER at least CYCLICAL (shorter period) BULL will emerge....good read my last post on Zeal's contention of 17 yr period cycles.
He did see the commodity boom comng back in 2000 so even in a BEAR we do have options.
Momo indicators will make several stabs down in extreme territory until it is SAFE to come back
SO, even if cyclical in nature we want to define that bull and ride...we want to define the ultimate bottom....and we have some great people to help advise us...and me too ! haa It is my hope we find our way thru this mess together.. take care pancakes ready!
D
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