RECENT COMMENT ON BLOG and my RESPONSE

Anonymous said...

Yes trouble abounds. My two cents:Overall environment is massively deflationary. The commodity price inflation we currently see is just the tail of the prior credit expansion (which always lags) combined with speculation (based in part on currency trends which also are lagging effects). Personally I think in this environment cash is king. IMHO gold is a tough call but not likely to be the a great investment in this environment. In a long term deflationary environment, gold will lose value. In the short term it could rise or fall significantly due to many temporary factors but those moves will not be sustainable. The wild card is what is the potential for a dollar/bond crisis due to capital flight? I suspect the credit crisis and developing recession/depression are global (with a lag) which means NO DECOUPLING, so there will be no capital flight and instead dollar with actually appreciate as deflation progresses here and globally. jbr
1:07 AM

Duratek said...

JBR,Great comments. Very possibly the US $$ could appreciate here if the ECB stops raising rates, or to reduce overly bearish sentiment...but the rally off the 70.00 lows looks to have stalled."Cash is king" YES YES....it is where I have been for some time WAITING....nowmy patience is being rewarded, even my 401K is all CASH....I have sold my oil/gold position....not wanting greed....my returns MEAGER, my losses NONE,Deflation is a REAL THREAT, hence my BLACK HOLE photos.....it seems to me the attempt to reflate assets has failed....sucking from housing,banking and now stock market drawing in the forces of stupidity and recklessness.Gold did well during depression relatively speaking, flight to safety has been US TREASURIES AND COMMODITIES and my friend......what ELSE? is left to inflate and TRAP the Johnny come lately's......workers are being shed at a good clip I fear that WILL intensify as companies MUST stop red ink anyway possible.I have just read June 27th Elliot Wave and it shows in many charts that FEAR considering all that is out in the open and recent market action is not reflected in VIX and I think the Bear is in a nacent stage...take care

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