MY PROPRIETARY TREND INDICATOR IS FLASHING BEAR MARKET ALERT

I sent my chart out to a few colleagues, I am sorry I cannot post here as it is my baby....here is my findings though in my conversations this AM: again JUST MHO.

I wanted to post this on my blog, but IMHO this is a chart NOONE else is using. WHat perfect, simplicity.

When I originally thought of this I wanted to see if there was a connection(I would use levels of investor sentiment, guage price and reaction to levels of stress over a certain time frame), but could it give me a level...a # I could quantify with a bottom( or top).... I tried to back test with history as far back as I could go.....this chart I cleaned up this AM and IMHO it is really definitive....another very useful TOOL in shed.

You see unique dbl bottom at 16 in early 2009? YES I saw it....why didn't I use it!!!!??? especially after MACD cross a tad later.....would have scored huge.....well my BIZ (still) horrible....my emotions were not in check.....I didn't feel appropriate to risk....couldn't come up with ease in program...maybe also wasn't sure this chart was real......and lastly the level I thought we were headed was single digits....that never came monthly.....and I let it pass
(hindsight is great, real time never so easy)
NOW...and certainly IF MACD crosses....being LONG would be foolish. IMHO would signal BEAR MKT has returned. MACD CHOPPED between 2004-2007 but that was during bull so we could argue until it crossed down definitively in 2007 then it signalled bear alert.

Don't pick this apart, just look at the timing at the arrows...IMHO for me this speaks for itself. (called every top and bottom since 1990) this is MY observation.

SHARP turndown from 66 as was case in 2002 tells me this WAS a bear mkt rally. Volume "has been problem entire primary trend" ....it is warning and volume IS a problem. You cannot dismiss what doesn't fit your theory. Expanding volumes on declines and receding on rallies, the HIGH VOLATILITY are all earmarks of a BEAR MKT. MACD and other MOMO's DID register divergences at April highs....some did not, but definately some did.

A market controlled by hedge funds and HFT.....90% days like water have lost most predictive abilities.....things are different.....some things the same.

I would like to be proven wrong, I am just dude on a blog using my abilities of observation and market knowledge of past 15 years......but isn't the market an ODDS game?

ODDS favor you, then be long my friend, if odds swing to the house....protect yourself, be cautious.

Ask yourself, is this a time to be GREEDY or FEARFUL? DO we have a true bottom at hand? IT IS very hard to STAY LONG during a BULL MKT.....with long term DIVIDEND YIELDS and PE RATIOS never hitting prior SECULAR BEAR LOWS.....as pointed out by Richard R many times per Dow Theory.....yeah my SPidey senses are tingling.

I'm not asking you to do anything, I am trying to help you think for yourself, and survival is what i'm after.....greed has left the house for now. SHOW ME A TEST OF MARCH 2009 LOWS.....different story....then you maybe take a LONG TERM horrizon view, many GOOD companies will be selling at never seen values and yields will be high enough to compensate for risk.....and if wrong.....well you never bet the house,,,,I personally would EASE In....and add as TREND TURNS......we miss the tops, the bottoms....and hope to ride the SWEET SPOTS with less risk

Savers, risk averse are getting HOSED by GOV and FED.....trying to FORCE those into risky investments.....as the SHILLS parade across MSM and even the PRESIDENT makes mountains out of molehills.....if our President REALLY believes that the government creatng almost ALL the jobs in MAY report, temp at that!!!!...is a sign that "economy is gaining strength minute by minute,,,," be very afraid.....dude is either LYING or is delusional, or is controlled as PUPPET and reads whatever is on prompter without proofing it.....or all above.

PS....being wrong and on sidelines missing some rally if miracle bull exists,,,,is better than being IN the market fully exposed and being wrong (about BULL that is)

ALL THIS JMHO....FWIW

Duratek