It never pays to be so one sided that you don't explore or consider all possible outcomes. Did the world end in 2009? We were on BRINK of financial meltdown, fear was at a climax...the darkest hour turned out to be maybe the best time to buy stocks in our lifetime. CAT at $10???
It's not supposed to be easy, or everyone would win, it IS a CASINO! where the house wins 80% of the time. It is a RIGGED game where many know important info before YOU ever do...it's a RIGGED game.
It's election year, the FED will stand by and let economy continue to sink? MY GUY says some kind of surprise action BEFORE next meeting, to maximize effect.....which I suspect will be more short lived than expected....and it may be enough to send stock to their final highs.
Many BULL MKT stocks are already floundering like CAT 20% plus off its highs, ALCOA hurting and single digits. Small and mid caps underperforming, and a non confirmation between Transports and Industrials.
But the top of my broadening megaphone pattern is near 1600 SPX, that option is out there. The 20,50, and 75 week MA'S are all rising, so that is NOT bearish.
GAS has risen 25 cents per gallon in last few weeks, when mkt gets jiggy so does OIL. Maybe game is to talk up EURO, hurts the US $, bully for stocks, commodities get a boom.
1% rates in 2001 led to a HOUSING BOOM, but unfortunately a housing and mortgage finance BUBBLE, when it burst, you know the rest. Now we have 0% rates, mortgage finance rates at HISTORIC LOWS, and the housing mkt barely a rebound pulse, WHY????
Law of diminishing returns, and hard to refinance when you home you bought between 2005-2007 or so is worth 20% or less more than you paid, you don't qualify!
Those heavy into the stock market are benefitting from current policy, but didn't the avg investor head for the hills and Bond Funds and like the Turtle haven ot come out of their shells?
DEMAND for credit has not recovered, ALL this money pumped has not made its way into the REAL ECONOMY, where did it all go? RECORD STOCK RALLY in face of weakest statistical recovery from recession is telling.
Ultimately the bear has been fought with more and more gusto, each time 2003, and 2009 the result from this INTERVENTION has been more costly...... we had a top in 2000, then bottom 3 years later in 2003, we had a 4 year bull and topped 4 years later in 2007, we had a short but painful 2 yr bear that ended in 2009. If this pattern is still playing out this bull will top between 2012-2013....IF.
IF we get near 1600 on the SPX, and you just sit there like lambs at the slaughter house, don't say I didn't warn you.