Factory Capacity and end of Year boom

http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicReleases/indprd.htm

This is not the data of a strong economy. As factory ute rates continue near Recession lows. Factory production declined from prior month.

WE already have 5 consecutive declines in the LEI's. SLow growth in Money SUpply. Trouble ahead IMHO in 2005.

BUT, with mergers being all cash, and IPO'S dwindling next week. It seems almost certain the stock market will see a rally into early next year. PErhaps then reality will sink in.

As there are NO values to be found in market, money coming in will chase hot money, MOMO stocks, in feeling they must go higher. And someone will be there to pay HIGHER price, which is not based on historical value.

As FED continues to raise, the low 1% rate argument for paying higher PE's for stocks weakens.

RECORD bullishness under this scenario does not leave ANY room for error. BULLS have the reins still, and I expect higher stock prices even with all the contrarian indicators, until perception changes, and risk creeps back into market.

D