MOST ADVERTISED MOST WARNED 2005 is coming

End of year and seasonal positioning and year ending in 5.....I contend MAY already be in stock prices.
Beside data on sentiment etc in last post we should consider this as well.
Before last months meager gain, LEI was down for 5 CONSECUTIVE months.(kind of data Recessions are made of)
Money supply has been flat since end of summer. (ususally predicts softness ahead)
Bullish sentiment data at extreme extremes.
First of year ususally sees some unwinding of extreme positioning added on to make MM's look good.
Minutemen leading the Generals and WHO is lagging? SOX INTC MSFT CSCO DD WMT and others WHO is leading? GOOG RIMM TASR etc
Relative strength has weakened on EACH new top in NDX (4 now in row)
FRIDAY where (OPEX) key reversal was had was highs in volume a down day.
20% DROP in NEW HOUSING STARTS last report.(unexpected)
Flattening yield curve (falling long rate is spelling slowdown?) YET we know what the PRESSURES are on long rates to rise!
A WORSENING situation in IRAQ, GOV own records indicate they thought by NOW they would be out. INABILITY for IRAQI'S to police themselves means US occupation to go on for years!and escallating costs.
HISTORIC high in total credit market debt ratio to GDP, all good things come to an end? WHEN CREDIT expansion ENDS or STALLS....the decline would be next as was the case in 1929-30's era extremes.
BREAK in US DOLLAR BONDS/RATES would be key to watch, a SUDDEN RISE in rates could start a PANIC with such extremes in bullishness.
SPX/VIX ratio 17% ABOVE its 2000 BUBBLE extremes (cannot go on ONE indicator but this is a shocker IMHO...LOTS for Bear to feed on!)
ANY ADVANCE and subsequent fall or stal in level of VIX will even more so distort historic complacency.
ZERO SAVINGS RATE.
SOX reflecting dataquest estimate for 2% decline in semi demand?
US consumes 80% of worlds savings...another EXTREME.
LAME DUCK President also brings out Republican critics.
I DON'T SEE how these EXTREMES can PERSIST well into 2005
I can say no more.
I look forward to 2005 however with you all.
Duratek