FUNHOUSE

As almost EVERY advisor STAYED bullish (and maybe rightly so still) and 100% commited long to stocks coming into 2005, I ask myself what is it that I (some of we) SEE that they do not, or the other way around?I discussed that I was using the 20 EMA for my trend analysis, this almost forgottne simplistic approach keeps in touch with actual movement, not just my opinions...I have used 13 day and 13 week also...to each his own.I had discussed other items that alerted me, SPX/VIX ratio etc, though most disregarded the alert of a top or value of such a ratio....added to other things it need not stand on its own now.SO, though many guru's are VERY good, have gREAT feel....they miss things, they get too complacent....they are just GUESSING like everyone else, but reputation can go a long way...and NO ONE is right all the time.SOme give allocation models which prove over time to be fantastic way to invest.....but any 3 yr or so period could devestate those portfolio's.....one MUST take 10 yr at a time look at that style of investing.As it is, MOST cannot stomach or do the in and out method.....and larger errors can occur.As far as waiting for an undervalued market as a plan.....ONLY time will tell if CASH outperforms LTBH over the 2000 to whenever period....SO FAR any monies IN 2000 in most sectors would be wasted and if not, its their turn soon.Spinning wheels is not what most want to do......we will know substantial change has occured when most go from worrying about missing the next rise to worrying about losing what they've got!IMHO....we are VERY close to calling the re-emergence fo the bear market....and if that actually transpires during 2005-2006....you SHOULD know what that means.SO, do YOU get a crystal clear vision of tomorrow or today....or are you in the fun house?The DEALER is shuffling the cards.....the game has changed.