Sunday, January 23, 2005

Is the Kontratief WInter Approaching in 2005?

http://howestreet.com/mainartcl.php?ArticleId=897&PHPSESSID=a38591c5a4b7c27a7edff3e47ee72f93

The market is due a bounce, it must begin so out of the box Monday or more downside is probable. Declining momo is still rather strong.

If any bounce comes it SHOULD be shallow and short, the decline should resume. ALL the money supposedly flowing into market every January and profit taking mostly over, the weakness in markets is even more ominous.

EVEN bellweather EBAY took a $19 shellacking. INTC couldn't rally the SHM ETF (semi holders) IBM "stellar" numbers didn't rally the market either.

We may have reached the ned of road for the cyclical bull, in coming weaks we will look for more signs. ALL major indexes have fallen below their respective Dec 2004 lows. This is NOT good.

Already ALL of 2004's gains have been wiped out in a mere 3 weeks of bear action.

I want to be a buyer of gold, but I am not sure if recent bounce in dollar is over just yet, there "COULD" be one more PLUNGE in gold prices to around $408 or so, there I would have to consider a better area to begin my accumulation. I will report here any action I may take and the technicals as I see them.

Cash is "Prince" as Pimco king touts, if not king 2nd best here is not so bad. Last hosuing report surprised me with its strength after 3 lackluster ones. STILL, key is long term rates and they STILL haven't shown their hand yet.

The key to markets could be held their as well, a substantial RISE in rates not a welcome sight. all IMHO

Duratek

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