Sunday, April 17, 2005

BEAR BACK? COUNTER TREND BOUNCE COMING

Too many bears? VIX shot up dramatically Friday, but still below 20 which USED to be thought of as complacent. When LOW VIX was around 11-12 for some time, 17 looks like fear but it is not.

BUT the put call ratio is soaring, and the markets are OBVIUOSLY oversold. Surely they will fall farther, but crashes are RARE, no straight shot.

I am guessing a rally could be brewing as early as Monday, but what I may look for is a DOWN day early, selling exhaustion, buyers come in and maybe even turn it green.

If we OPEN green, I will be more suspicious and figure more sellers at the door.

But the action we have seen, only about a month ago new highs were being put in, now new lows in the indexes.

191 point decline is rather fear laden, but sometimes I wonder how over bought conditions last for much longer periods. This recent SPAT of selling could be initial kick-off of the return of the Bear Market......watch closely.

D

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