Thursday, April 14, 2005

TOUGH DAY FOR LONGS

My "lurkers" are staying safe and unscathed if following my calls for caution and following my blog on a somewhat regular basis....even if its a tired sing song.....da facts are da facts.

My wife asks me..."why be SO negative"...I am not negative per se', but I cannot disregard what I have come to believe. I earned my opinion, it is valid as ANY professional guru, and to ignore would invalidate all my so called knowledge of the situation.

3 BRUTAL days out of 4 for the TRANSPORTS.....BLASTING thru support and putting in a LOWER LOW

Nothing BULLISH HERE! at the DOW and personally, I don't see MUCH support down to 10K......where is the PPT some are asking.
P and F chart says 9800 good chance

NDX?? glad you asked...BRUTAL UGLY and if you also put in the 30 SMA you get the 30,60, and 90 Simple Moving Avg's all declining with 90 above the 60 above the 30! BEARISH PARALELL positioning.

DO you remember when REAL selling brought JPM down to $15???

That's why you must always have eyes open to VALUE, it is missing now.

EVERY BEAR MKT has returned the markets BACK to their norms and BELOW.....we are not even close.

COULD the entire BULL market be retraced? As is the case in most BEAR MKTS? I do not know, seems impossible, but a dollar or interest rate crisis....or worse? you NEVER KNOW.....so far this history has not repeated...but over 100 years of market history tells me it most certainly might.

Just in time "good fella's" Bankruptcy legislation working its way thru Congress, should pass....STICKING it to little guy and protecting those Credit Institutions which fed the hanging rope.

APPL delights? and declines sharply. HAS the mood turned?

Damn good chance, for now, we just have HEAVY selling.....rally days weak on weak volume.

WHAT WAS that reversal on Tuesday after the pitiful FED minutes were released? Looking like scaredy short covering.

THIS decline will end, and a buying opp may appear, but I am not sure since 1164 SPX fell today and 10400 on DOW and NAZ support too......a washout may be needed or we get a few weak rallies.....but seen as another chance to unload.

EVIDENCE of smart money DISTRIBUTION has already occurred....NO money manager is worried....though a few I read have raised CASH levels.

IF a trend is FIRM, those LONG TERM MOVING AVERAGES act like a magnate and stem the declines as THEY keep rising.

THIS IS NOT 2002/2003.......some buys out there, but use of a dart board will bring bad results now. IMHO

Duratek

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