Saturday, July 09, 2005

WEEKEND COMMENTS "everyone out of the pool"

I once held a stock out of "loyalty" and a promise maybe I shouldn't have made, and it cost me.....so rah rah man I will not be for a given thing, so my mind is clear to do what needs to be done....make no doubt, GOLD WILL SHINE, but IMHO first it must exhibit DEFLATIONARY warnings, as SILVER IS/WILL do.........and should that much anticipated EXHAUSTION Bull leg begin for gold, it is its nature to begin with weak hands shook off....this will occur when gold falls below $400 IMHO...it will seperate those from what they thought they loved most, and have them slapping themselves for having done so sometime later on.....just look at the chart of NEM with an open mind and tell me what you see.....being the center of the gold universe.

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=3382 A MUST READ for those open to thinking Kondratieff "LONG" Waves as possible.

Comments about BONDS VS STOCKS a very valid point IMHO.

We are VERY EARLY in the Winter games.

I saw a tick chart of the SPX'S from Thursday, as 3:30 or thereabouts the SPX's were forcasting, as I said, about a 200 POINT drubbing was coming. THAT was the LOW point, it went vertical from then on to close !!!

WHO could have come in at that time, what trader or group of like thinking traders?....would be starting when we were sleeping and turned the direction of markets around at this time?

WHO thought a terrorist ATTACK, a deadly one, on sovereign soil, of a free nation, our closest ally was a good sign to buy like there was NO tomorrow? not to want stocks but was famished so? CRAVED THEM, HAD TO HAVE THEM?

IMHO FWIW.......a decided effort avoided a stock market crash, what good is coming from a showing of our suceptability, our vulneralbility? of terrorism coming to our shores again?
YOU KNOW the answer.

According to EWT, the market MUST close down shortly after open on Monday, or the rally most likely has legs, but doesn't change a thing.

I am thinking, Bond yields may rise one last time, given second chance (or more)for safe entry before NEXT employment report almost guaranteed to stink and miss estimates.....IMHO the strongest manipulation thru net birth death is over and we are going to see some very weak employment reports maybe thru end of year....this will put pressure on yields and keep bond rally going, I want treasuries if I can time them right.

IMHO, rally is gift horse in mouth, to be sold, and portfolio adjusted accordingly with LESS RISK and RAISE CASH,

TECH will slide first, impacted by real slowdown in economy and direction of stock options being expensed.

Think of the long cycles, think of what extremes exist in historical data and trends, think of how or what economy in history expanded and prospered when there were NO SAVINGS to invest....was loaded with historical extremes in all kinds of DEBT, where ASSET inflation was only wealth......

EVEN the effect of rising property taxes now begun to be felt, is putting a hurt on new home buyers and old.

WHERE condo's are bought because nothing else can be afforded.

WHere an economy and market are held up by the invisable hand.....these situations do not last forever.

It is not predicting their exact timing or end that is important, it is understanding that they do exist and act accordingly to prepare for leaner times.

PRINTING money after all, is only a fools game and never leads to sustainable enhancement.

Duratek

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