Tuesday, September 18, 2007


A bold move? the right move? only time will tell, but even if I'm the only one who feels this way a RISKY MOVE!

You don't reinflate a bubble which has popped and get same bang for buck as when first inflating it, the moves the FED can make here are limited and this will not force banks to loosen lending standards or lower mortgage rates, the 10 yr yield was basically unchanged after actually rising on the FED decision.

When you satiate demand, it takes awhile to work off the excesses, this has not been done yet. Slack demand could also be the result of a vaporization of exotic mortgage rate schemes as well as unaffordable prices, there are tons of unsold inventory to work through.

There is a good chance market will keep momentum and rise to new highs and I wonder if smart money is buying or selling, if stocks never reached prices low enough to entice buyers back why will higher prices?


I can always take a trade, and I never trade on FED DAY, too volatile, I'll let the dust settle and see what shapes up and if its on the long side that's OK.

The US DOLLAR is nearing uncharted territory, I have 1992 low of 79.12 almost tested today, GOLD shot up (no inflation?) OIL near $82 !!!

If someone tells you there is NO inflation.....Keep an eye on long term rates to which mortgages apply, irregardless BILLIONS of LOW LOW payments will reset MUCH higher going forward.
http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm the BDI is the rate shippers charge for DRY BULK....raw materials....at all time highs

The WORLD is stable or raising rates.....the US needs to attract buyers of their debt (which dropped dramatically last week with only $12B foreign purchased) and they DO THIS by LOWERING the rate of interest?


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