Wednesday, April 28, 2010

BULLISH % CLUES


WHen bullish per cent fell to 1.60 a bottom followed months later, turned out to be buying opportunity (IF YOU HAD RAISED CASH) of lifetime. perhaps
Last 2 instances I can monitor show tops coming anywhere from 1 year to 3 years AFTER BPSPX topped out. SO we could at least assume PRICE does not arrive at a high at the same time as BULLISH PER CENT.
Has it topped? So far yes, going forward just one of many things I will be monitoring.
I do not know if this market will conform to previous markets, investing is always about managing risks, taking your best shot.
What to do now certainly depends on what you did when. VIX popped up yesterday yes. ANother 90% plus (96%) down volume day arrived making it 2 without any ensuing 90% up days....so at LEAST near term caution may be warranted, they also came within a few weeks of each other suggesting the desire to SELL may not be exhausted.
WE also hit this wall at important resistance, always fascinating.
FED DECISION TODAY AT 2:15. IMHO we will see mostly aimless market until then.....I expect NO CHANGES IN LANGUAGE.
Market may say V shape......FED has not.
Duratek

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