BOND/MARKET CORRELATION REBUTTAL

Privately, not everyone agrees with my comments on rates and market behaviour.

In explaining my previous chart:

"The correlation has been intact since 2000.....10 years...I'm not fighting that. .....and that we may already be back into bear...recession never ended cept gov stim stats....a MUCH bigger decline is out there lurking.....only a break of 3.8 ish% on a sharp reversal changes my mind."

The disagreement came in the form of this basic comment....."we've been in a bear market rally since 1980?"

This I assume is coming from fact bonds have rallied on a monthly long term chart for almost 30 years! so yes looking at that maybe my chart made no sense.....on the contrary however.....that IMHO is NOT the case, my rebuttal below:


"You miscontrue or dont understand the correlation. In a BULL MKT price, can to a point, ignore the change in interest rates....the DROP in rates in 1998 foreshadowed the 98 crash. Rates bottomed with stocks in 1998...in a BULL Mkt rates rise as a SIGN of economic strength seen as BULLISH.

We as you know are not currently in a secular bull mkt, we are in secular (long term) BEAR MKT yes? if you deny the direct relationship apparent for the last 10 years.....I cannot further discussion.

For last 10 years falling rates were sign of WEAKNESS, are almost always sign of weakness......stock prices fall.... I specifically stated over last 10 years why go back to 1980 to make your point?

..... when one considers only one way to view and decide may be when one can more easily be set up for failure.... IT is how I see things and communicate with others is thru observation.....until out of this BEAR mkt....rates will gather no steam but moss.

ONE CAVEAT perhaps....is the bond bull running since 1980's.....yes that is LONGER TERM TREND SECULAR....I only began from 2000 bear because that is where the direct correlation worked best......a BUST of a potential BOND BUBBLE....that would send rates skyrocketing ending the 30 yr bond bull with a backdrop of economic stagnation.....that would rewrite this playbook. "

Please dear readers do NOT agree with everything I write, the idea is to open your mind and maybe we agree, and if we don't respectfully that's OK too.

Duratek

NAILING THE CURRENT DYNAMICS !

"Most regrettably, Washington policymaking (fiscal and monetary) is on a trajectory that will inevitably destroy the creditworthiness of our nation’s vast liabilities. With ominous parallels to the mortgage/Wall Street finance Bubble, Federal Reserve policies have fostered Bubble dynamics throughout our Treasury, agency and debt markets, more generally".

Please follow link and read entire essay

Folks, if we follow the FED policies, and can relate their effects in the past, now we see HISTORIC actions and the law of diminishing returns playing out, the "pulling on a string".

Normal recovery from Recession is not visable and when considering all that and kitchen sink thrown at it, with rates at 0%, but housing barely effected.....nothing is as it seems....nothing is normal here......I trust only the hand that touches my nose.

Bear markets reset the economies, markets.....the FED and GOV are fighting a return to normalcy.....

D

SUN SHINING BRIGHTLY?

Yet clouds obscure the sector..if EVER I thought of a SURE THING it was alt energy under Obama.

D

THE STORY IN PCTURES

In my opinion at least there is a CLEAR correlation between interest rates and the stock market trend.

During 2000-2003 bear mkt, rates fell into the stock bear bottom in early 2003, then as CYCLICAL BULL rose, so did rates.

Rates PEAKED In early 2007, so did stocks. And as stocks declinded sharply into their 2009 bottom so did interest rates!

Rates double topped their 2009 highs near 3.88%, then began a decline that has taken the 10 yr back below 3% !!

Now some measures of supply and demand suggest very healthy trends and fortell of continued price appreciation for stocks, while others tell different story such as continued loss of volume on the rallies and EXPANDING volume on the declines. One of my services excuses this pattern...."because it has been present since rally began in 2009...."

WHat if some measures of strength as price TRIES to breakout become seen as a divergence to the action? WHat if new rally highs in some measures, and when price is not.......are actually a warning of impending decline.....not of impending new price highs?

SOme see evidence of trend for higher prices because with weak GDP stocks did not decline hard.....we are short term overbought. Breakout levels are above current price action in most indexes. CHinese stocks have moved off their lows.....jury is out....if we manage to get back to SPX 1170 area, IMHO the next leg down may be set if for once it isn't verified with expanding volume.

D

WHO'S DRIVING THE BUS?

The continued deceleration in qtr to qtr GDP is alarming and with the major input to GDP from inventory rebuilding mostly behind us as well overall stimulus, we may be facing a near zero GDP in coming quarters, my question is how long can the market move opposite to the reality?

Mostly from cost cutting, companies profits have not been bad in general but with the Consumer still 70% of the economy where is the DRIVER going forward?

Personal savings was revised upward to 6.2%, austerity will come at a price....last cycle peaked near 12% in late 70's early 1980's......but did set up last great bull mkt.

IMHO the risks are to the downside.

D

USING "SIMPLE" MOVING AVERAGES

Observe how many times PRICE came into CONTACT with the Moving AVERAGE trend line and either got SUPPORT or found RESISTANCE. Exponential moving averages take into account more current data in importance vs overall avg.

D

GRASPING AT STRAWS

Sentiment is flagging, it hasn't even gotten back to WORST it was after 911 attacks! Market has turned from lows, remember.....we watch the action....

D

GDP NEWS

Many were calling for 2.7 to 3.5 GDP, BUT from a revised 3.7% the report came in at 2.4%

To listen to CNBC much time being spent dismissing the miss and excuse making....all kinds of past revisions going back to 2008 were lowered, what good are these reports with such wild revisions always going on?

What are people saying and experiencing, what are your friends, relatives and collegues saying?

Now none of our opinions matter, the market will do the talking. But it sure appears after all the TRILLIONS of stimulus have worked through the system....that there is a slowing....witha FAT FED balance sheet, funds rate at 0%, GOV deficits soaring...what now?

D

BEAR MARKETS BOTTOMS OF THE PAST

*above from crosscurrents archives link here to full article 1982 was example of what has happened at END of SECULAR trend PE 7.9 DIV YIELD 6.3% no guarantee it repeats, thought it would be interesting to look back

D

GDP ON TAP

GDP report is due out in the AM, I will be back later on to discuss and maybe this weekend, so check back.

The good news is somewhere down the road the deleveraging will be over and consumer will be in a better place, having paid down or defaulted on debt. Banks do not realize market value and until they do I am not sure they are going to be in much of a mood to lend. FED policy of paying interest on "excess reserves" must end.

I am not hopeful about the prospects for taxes, raising taxes in current environment would not be a net positive. AS we go along, it does give an investor hope that March 2009 lows were THE LOWS......that is certainly possible. What bothers me is that we broke the prior bear mkt lows of 2002.

Now in prior secular (long term) bear market bottoms dividend yields on the SPX 500 were avg 6% and PE ratios in single digits.....will we repeat? sure hope not.

D

WHAT IS THE FED SCARED OF?

"The Fed is trying so hard not to scare the market that it risks putting the economy to sleep, a top Fed official said.

By promising to leave short-term interest rates near zero for an extended period, the Fed "may be increasing the probability of a Japanese-style outcome for the U.S.," St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (right) said in a paper released Thursday. He says the best bet for avoiding that sort of slowdown is another round of Fed asset purchases."

Read rest of story from fortune.com

GET THEM WHILE THEY'RE HOT

EMERGING DEBT ISSUANCE EXPLODES

I almost feel the urge to break into some kind of tirade.....but I won't....not tonight.

Some churning here at these levels, so overhead supply is apparent, maybe temporarily stalling rally....market is overbought.

Bears appear back in hiding, but it seems to me many or most have learned NOTHING from the last 2 BEAR MARKETS and subsequent cyclical bullish periods.

We're not firing on all cylinders, I'm not sure which cylinders are firing. Businesses, middle class, married couples filing jointly, richer people are bracing for TAX INCREASES.

WHY does it have to be all or nothing? Dividend tax relief I could live without, but many other provisions will hit the MIDDEL CLASS HARD, aleady struggling.

I don't know when, but if it becomes clear that this will happen, I am guessing that on top of everything else could get investors to turn tail.

Meantime, yields on longer dated maturaties give MUCH different impression of economy and future than talking heads.

D

TAX CUTS ONLY HELP THE WEALTHY?

full story link here

"Most ordinary people these days are paying a marginal rate of 15% or 25%. If we let the tax cuts expire, that might rise for many to 28%. Based on data supplied by the AICPA these ordinary folks would take a tax bump of anywhere between a few hundred and a few thousand dollars.

For a typical single filer with adjusted gross income of around $40,000 it might be about $400 a year.

For someone on $80,000, about $1,600.

How about married couples filing jointly? They'd get hit with higher tax rates and a lower standard deduction. (It was raised in 2001).

A couple earning $80,000 a year in adjusted gross income might pay about $2,200 extra. A married couple on $160,000 a year: Maybe $5,500 extra.

If they have children it would be more, as the child tax credit would revert from $1,000 to $500. Ouch. "

BALONEY!

Top Stories
Stocks Climb on Earnings, Drop in Jobless Claims- AP
Stocks are climbing after a new batch of upbeat earnings and a modest drop in jobless claims renewed some optimism about the economy.

Are they serious! IS everything just a JOKE to everyone else? IS ANY MSM interested in telling any truth.

Had the # dropped BELOW 400,000 this far into "RECOVERY".....maybe THAT would be something, the something is that it hasn't!!!!! remember the GOV added ONE MILLION temp census jobs during last 6-8 months....or thereabouts.

How about 30 yr mortgages hitting 4.5% yet we have record worst month of selling? NOW ask yourself what FUMES the stock market is running off of?

You think I like being negative......here at my #1 business I'm trying to protect 20 families livleyhoods....I want to be UPBEAT.....now I'm no sour puss to be around, but I'm gonna tell it like I see it.....I am on lookout for blue skies.

D

EMPLOYMENT, SEE DIFFERENCE IN 2 PAST RECESSIONS?

We are ONLY back to near worst it was during 2001-2003.....and at THIS LEVEL of job loss, the stock market hadn't really begun to dive in earnest yet! just an ob

see below from this AM

"NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Foreclosure filings climbed in 75% of the nation's metro areas during the first half of 2010, according to a report issued Thursday.

RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed homes, said that California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada continue to lead the nation in the rate of foreclosures. Las Vegas was the worst-hit city.

now unemployment has replaced toxic mortgages as the leading cause of foreclosures throughout the country, according to spokesman Rick Sharga".

Have we stabilized? what's the economy running on folks?....strategic default consumer spending? that's sick...

D

Why Are You Closed Tosh.0 IS THIS WHAT WE HAVE BECOME?

RALLY REVERSE IMAGE

US $ off another .50 this AM and has lost its 200 day moving average. SO in a way, in US $ terms.....the rally here is a fraud. This is nothing short of a collapse,

D

SONG REMAINS THE SAME

Top Stories from yhoofinance.com

Fed Survey: Recovery Slows in Some Places- AP
The pace of economic activity has slowed or held steady in parts of the country, revealing a choppy path back to health.

How Wall street will beat FinReg-
CNBC Stocks edge down after weak orders data- AP

NAZ particularly weak. New RIM phone being talked up, stock popped but down from highs.

Are you wondering if SEPT-OCT will be typical this year?

I have procured contrarianadvisor.net and plan to develop it one of these days....maybe sooner.

D

IN % TERMS, Has Durables PEAKED?

data available at briefing.com much of this was inventory rebuilding, stimulus driven.....that may now be waning

NOT SO BULLISH CALL

"Just in case there was any confusion which way SocGen's Albert Edwards may be leaning after the recent however many percent rally in the AUDJPY, sometimes known affectionately as stocks, it is hereby resolved: "My views on the outlook could not be clearer. They may be wrong, but at least they are clear. We still call for sub-2% 10y bond yields and equities below March 2009 lows." In other words, according to AE the market is well over 50% overvalued."

Thanks to piece from zerohedge link here these are hard to find now. Remember technicals can take over, the platforms that RULE the market can work with you for a time, can also reverse engines the HFT program trading that dominates the market.

Many have been QUICK to IGNORE the one glaring fact of this rally from March 2009, the less than bullish norm low volume rallies that are outdone by the volume on MOST declines.

That BOND YIELDS do NOT indicate the broader, larger investment community confidence in recovery, why the flight to safety still? WHY the DEFLATION RECESSION LIKE YIELDS? in the face of HISTORIC BORROWING?

GO ahead, let it all ride, leave it on the table.....market can go higher.......what is the structural base it has headed up from?

Duratek

ALL IN

WHile most economic data comes in soft and indicates slowing economy if not outright double dip call, MSM and DC tell us how well the recovery is going, ignore ISM, ECRI and consumer confidence numbers all much lower than when 2010 began.

If Consumer Confidence below 2001 levels, records being set in home sales for least sold, no traction in jobs market, wages flat, plunging ECRI world growth at below -10 are bullish indicators.....I'm all in.

D

WHAT DRIVES ECONOMY?

The dudes in secret rooms rubbing shit all aover their black boxes? MIdnight clandestine meetings of men in black suits? MSM saying day after day how good it is? Housing records broken....the wrong frickin way? Employment not responding to record stim?

Or this sorry-ass chart of the 75% of our economy? Buy on dreams, buy before everyone knows its better.....buy because prices rise....buy on no findamentals, buyer beware too.

D

NEAR TERM APPRAISAL

*click to enlarge

I can offer all kinds of opinions, today all I offer is my chart with the action.

I respect trend line break outs, and here using this OHLC method I can see where we had 2 tests of the break. So over the near term we should see prices edge higher. One caveat is we got here and now over bought readings leave market vulnerable to selling.

There ARE times where traders can get caught in market "CHOP" and lose no matter what they do.

ST trend would remain bullish unless IMHO prices fall back below trendline and then test that breakdown......so if rally has legs we should only see a brief shallow retrace.

I know the market can seem confusing to you, that is how it is set up, to confuse the majority of people. Many were warning right as the market was bottoming, for technical and fundamental reasons.

The fundamental reasons to dispute market strengthare still here, but just as we got (too many were watching?) the bear cross and the decline was digging in......the one thing the market needed was to rally right away....surprising many that is what has happened.

If long term investor, the last 10 years seem wasted, price is still below where it was 10 years ago....cept for Bonds and gold.....to win at this game you must always have some CASH....you must be willing to buy when most will not....when prices fall enough and fear is high enough to uncover some bargains.....you probably saw them.......you know what I mean.

You must be willing to sell before the top in some cases....and not buy the bottoms....by guessing.....what we want, what I enjoy is trend following....and when a trend gets going....tends to be safer buyin points.

NOW? I think we are stuck in a LONG TERM BEAR MKT, it's taken your money, if you let it, it will take more. Many smart people I know have been building CASH and selling this rally.

Many believe this rally and economic revival is directly from TRILLIONS of stimulus and FED action, most of which has come and gone.......so some company profits maybe look like their improving but the future is not clear.....and the ability of the economy to function on its own 2 feet was even questioned by the Fed Chairman.....

With fund rates sitting at zero, we get one of the if not worst selling month for homes since records have been kept. I won't go back over what I don't like.....

The market is now for traders, and if you believe we are in a Bear Market.......then you know how bottoms are made.

D

"NEW HOME SALES JUMP?"

"Sales of new homes jumped last month, but the overall pace was the second slowest on record."

There are other words to describe enemic sales? Market being games friends....

Dr Martin weiss a good read

D

MISSED TARGET

One of TOP RETAILERS SICKLY?

IS HNI WARNING US OF SOMETHING?

*Click on ALL charts to enlarge and click again to oversize.

NEW LITHIUM ETF

A way to play LIT ION through various companies involved in production, mining, etc. There is a whole host of information I can share if interested, I don't have to concentrate JUST on the general market or how bleeped shit is.

LIT went live Friday. No TA possible this early on.

D

SHORT TERM VIEW

WHAT IS A PICTURE WORTH?

Watch the stock market, companies beating "estimates" growing revenues? growing profits? LOOK at chart above again...the #1 contributor in the past to economic growth and expansion......you see a problem?



from yhoo finance
Monday: "The Commerce Department's new home sales index is due after the start of trading. Sales are expected to have risen to a seasonally adjusted annual unit rate of 310,000 in June, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. That would represent a modest recovery from May.

In May, new home sales plunged 33% to a seasonally adjusted annual unit rate of 300,000, the lowest on record (which dates to 1963), amid the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit."

HISTORY LESSON (Japanese stock market)

*click on all charts to enlarge (then when see + click again to see large version)

FED to rescue? How's housing market doing? How's employment? Wages? Bank bonuses?

at 0% effective FED rates.......with economy not responding as the experts predicted and MSM keeps saying it is.......too few arrows left in the quiver to deal with another crisis.

How so with need to borrow at greatest in decades we see a 10 yr below 3%?

I hope you continue to find my analysis and blog helpful.

D

2+2 DOESN'T SEEM TO EQUAL 4

STRENGTH IN SHORT TERM ACTION MOVES (new high for the move), but not in any of the other areas, stock prices, AD line,
net volume or net points, NY comp, NAZ, financials.

Troubling to me is continued pattern of rising volume on selling, and waning volume on rallies, almost without fail.

Pattern of plethora of 90% days almost makes them useless tool.

How can this be buying opp of lifetime?

How can economy expand under current environment of collapsing loans and loan demand? Credit mkt debt at all time highs as % of GDP?

Should 10 yrs be under 3% here in the new bull mkt? Should housing register worst ever in history month of sales?

What drives economy without big recovery in employment and housing near its bottom? Expanding business credit?

ECRI index below -10%

BDI back to 1700

36% Americans not contributing to 401K’s.

Banks BS earnings based on fictional acct …and its contribution to SPX earnings…

This is new bull mkt?

IMHO maybe traders mkt for those who can swing with the tide.

D

MIDDLE CLASS IS SHRINKING

22 STATS ARE EYE OPENERS

"36 percent of Americans say that they don't contribute anything to retirement savings. " *folks how is mkt rising w/o all these folks piling in money on reg basis? we got a gamed mkt is what we got..a fantasy mkt....not to be trusted imho


The GULF between the HAVES and the NOTS have never been greater. The US Stock market rally from March of 2009 has been one wonderful manipulated orchestrated electronically managed, low volume example of gaming.

FED will pay Banks .25% on excess reserves it has created.....(AKA FREE RIDE MONEY) and the banks have access from FED basically money for nothing.......Banks have LESS incentive to lend and take risk....yet FED has said they plan to FORCE banks to lend......what a metaphor...what a joke. Bank earnings from which they PAY HUGE bonuses are based on their assets of which the mortgages they hold most of which are NOT marked to market value......and financials which also use OFF BALANCE SHEET and other TRICKS to mask problems......are BIG part of the earnings brigade.

D

BIRTH OF NEW BULL MKT?

RATES TELL VERY DIFFERENT STORY OF RECOVERY

FED MINUTES TROUBLING?

SECULAR TRENDS

*click all charts to enlarge

news

From the Editors of American Banker

Year’s Failures Top 100 As Slew of Banks Collapse
WASHINGTON – Federal and state regulators shut six banks late Friday, pushing the failure total this year to 102.

Though the pace of failures briefly slowed earlier this month, they appear to be picking up momentum again, as Friday’s failures followed six last week.

All of the collapses were community banks, and combined they held $1.9 billion of assets and are estimated to cost the Deposit Insurance Fund $393.5 million.

APPARENT PRICE BREAKOUT

But my ROC skeptical

RALLY IN TERMS OF GOLD, WHAT RALLY?

I think this shows without FED and GOV stimulus, which have weakened the US $ what rally? What recovery?

D

RENKO METHOD MONTHLY SAYS PRIMARY UPTREND INTACT

NEXT BUBBLE TO POP

"These days, the marketplace can fixate on deflation risk and feel comfortable holding our debt instruments. With perceptions of scant inflation risk and a Fed predisposed toward additional monetization, bonds are viewed as a low-risk proposition. And, of course, with market yields at historic lows it is especially easy to dismiss the seriousness of today’s unfolding fiscal problems."

Doug Nolands weekly read.

Is nOW the best time to buy stocks in a generation? What are the drivers of the American economy?

D

SUMMER RALLY TAKING HOLD?

Price appears to be breaking out, if holds into close...... BUT

Hui does not look too healthy….here’s your summer rally, on no employment, historic housing weakness even with record low rates, and fraud bank earnings….

And bonds are saying we got trouble.

D

WHAT Recovery Without Housing?

HOMELESS RECOVERY MUST READ

"SIMPLE" SPX LOOK

Using just SIMPLE 200 and 50 MA's important how price reacts at 200 SMA, good chance of repulsing, as we have 50/200 cross.

Market running on technicals, emotion, not on fundamentals of slowing economy again proved out in housing and job numbers

D

WHAT I CHARTED AT TOP OF PREVIOUS MOVE

DOESNT ADD UP

STOCKS SURGE

HOME MORTGAGE RATES FALL TO RECORD LOWS

HOME SALES DIVE 5%

BARGAIN HUNTING

"The strong sell-off at the end of the day yesterday is bringing the bargain hunters in this morning," said David Jones, chief market strategist at IG Markets. "But an air of caution remains, and the big concern is still that the economic recovery is more fragile than we first thought, so investors will be looking for reassurance today."

I love to find these quotes, available to explain each days action, or premkt. SO stocks are selling at amazing values are they?

D

LAME O IS HIS NAME O

Bernanke, delivering the central bank's semiannual report to Congress on monetary policy, said Fed officials believe the U.S. economy is still on a path to recovery.

"Although fiscal policy and inventory restocking will likely be providing less impetus to the recovery than they have in recent quarters, rising demand from households and businesses should help sustain growth," Bernanke said.

SO for now, as my chart s have been showing,we're in trading range, we're in a downtrend....until we break out, and I see LITTLE data backing bullish fundamentals....but maybe that's me.

And thank gd for the SAVIOUR

FINREG BILL SIGNED
"Considered the most sweeping overhaul of the financial system since the New Deal, the law immediately gives regulators stronger powers to break up financial companies that have grown too big.(Want to know what happens next? Read about Wall Street reform's timeline.)

Among its many provisions, the law also attempts to shine a light on complex financial products called derivatives and creates a new consumer protection agency that will set rules to curb unfair practices in consumer loans and credit cards.

"These reforms represent the strongest consumer financial protections in history," Obama said. "And these protections will be enforced by a new consumer watchdog with just one job: looking out for people - not big banks, not lenders, not investment houses - in the financial system."

A SHAME what we already got can't get job done, but thats what GOV is good at GETTING BIGGER...shoot there's your TOO BIG TO FAIL...

NYA BP% Point And Figure Confirms Bear

ABout BP CHARTS by DORSEY

FORCED HAND FED FIDDLES

Monday July 19th

(Reuters) - World stocks staged a late-day surge to end higher on Tuesday and Treasury prices pared gains, reversing steep losses as bargain hunters emerged amid speculation the Federal Reserve will take steps to spur lending.

Now rally is tied to "banks will be forced by FED to lend"......hayzooooosssss keeeeriste. How about a flacid demand for loans? Maybe FED should force people to borrow and go into more debt that can't be repaid to banks who already hide bad debts on or off books who don't want to lend or can't.

FInally someone understands......

D

MANY CALLING BOTTOM

Market can do what it wants, economic data does not support rising prices, then again it doesn't have to. As you can see downtrend is intact, until last lower high is taken out.

D

SPADE IS A SPADE

MISH on the ECRI INDEX

HOW GOVERNMENT AND FED POLICY HAVE WORKED

What you don't see on chart is housing starts DROP to 549,000 annual rate

Picture is worth 1,000 words and trumps anyone's opinion. Turn off MSM, next time you vote for change, I hope you ask for more detail than is provided in the stump stale campaign PROMISES.

D

SECULAR BEAR MARKET

We are in the midst of a SECULAR CYCLE, possibly one as long as 70-80 years apart, last seen in 1929-1932.

We can and will get past this but how long it lasts and how much pain depends on the policies implemented to combat it.

You saw what happened after the 2000-2002 Bear was defeated with 1% interest rates and ultra loose FED policies, it JUST created an even worse BUBBLE which when it popped in 2007, resulted in the worst economic slide since the Great Depression.

WHAT are they doing now or have been doing? MORE OF THE SAME (not going to cuss today).

But now we have 0% rates, $TRILLIONS SPENT BY GOV, but the return has been putrid, so why do they continue with these failed policies?

Like it or not, low tax rates, business friendly laws create environment for job growth and spending which creates big tax and revenue streams for governments, NOT MAKING GOV LARGER, NOT BY RAISING TAXES, NOT BY stiffling small business....very little has been done to ASSIST SMALL BUSINESS.

For instance if the GOV was to loan ME directly JUST $500,000....I could protect 20 jobs. What does the GOV get in return for their $500K otherwise? AM I a viable business? will I pay it back? I think so, come look at my books and see what changes I have made.

Below 3% on a 10 year NOTE is not saying whoopie to me.

If ANOTHER leg down is coming, those teetering will go down, and 9.5% unemployment rate is BOGUS and masks MUCH more pain. 99 WEEKS a record for unemployment payouts, and they want MORE? how much will that cost we ain't got? Obama is playing to populace vote, another political move of no substance....as he sees GOV as the answer NOT PRIVATE SECTOR......

I fear there is NO hope of CHANGE that is good, until he is not sitting there with his crown going down as worst President since Jimmy Peanut Farmer Carter and G W BUSH! (Conservative my ass)

D

GETTING HOSED IN A WORLD OF HOSERS

Economic policy is not working, economy is grinding to a halt, most pickles staying in peoples pockets.

What is needed is stimulus aimed at SMALL BUSINESS, small business create much of the jobs in this country......but shit I forget....."economy is strengthening MINUTE BY MINUTE".....be very afraid of the incompetant current in charge people.

A policy aimed at keeping Wall Street biggies in their places....and heaving big bonuses borrowing from FED at 0% has done little to create business flow....time for a change in many ways.

Asshole Greenspan, biggest clueless windbag in this countrys history thinks Bush tax cuts should be dropped....hey let's RAISE TAXES in a near DEPRESSION?

Has the stock market hit bottom? I get the feeling no way.....too many sectors rolling over.

And let's spend even MORE than 2 years free ride on unemployment..... send this MONEY to small biz instead and MAYBE we can hire these people.....free money is easy to get used to....2 years plus intoxicating.....its all for show...this guy makes me sick.

There may be few places left to hide my friends.....when the truth is never told, policies protect and help the few connected, when those running the show should have curtain brought down....what they seem to be very good at.....is hosing us.

D

LOSS OF STEAM NOT HOT AIR

The Gov has spent $TRILLIONS fighting the bear market and downturn, the FED has lowered rates to 0% and left them there for over a YEAR! The GAO suspended mark to reality and banks misrepresent their values.....stimulus etc all done to beat down the primary trend of an EXPLODING CREDIT/DEBT BUBBLE.....to little or no avail.

Savers got hosed getting NADA for savings, or little for other safe instruments. savers use interest for spending, but can't now.

VISA, MC, and RH (retail holders etf) are all in downtrends, maybe bear mkts.

The US $ has corrected sharply from its recent highs, falling from above 89 to low 82.

The policies implemented were to help the housing market and with rates at lowest in decades, few takers...consumer confidence below 911 levels....YET....our adm chirps...."economy is strengthening MINUTE BY MINUTE"

Don't expect the truth to be told, when do politicians tell the truth? If you WANT the truth, you have to go out and find it.

I want to write about happier times, but I won't lie. WHO KNOWS, maybe I'm, dead wrong about everything?

Folks, it's why I use CHARTS to help bring you an UNBIASED look at what is happening, charts do not offer opinions.....the charts and indicators like the -9.8% ECRI reading etc do not paint picture of health and expansion, but one of loss of steam and maybe worse.

Duratek

BP OUT OF WOODS?

Scientists are alarmed at early impact

CHINESE MARKETS REFLECT ECRI SURVEY NOT HYPE

Notice last time ECRI fell to around -10% ....that was in 2001 and in 2008 into 2009 bottom....we are now at -9.8%

I read where ECRI INDEX is now at -9.8% ! (that's not good)

Here is rueters nov 2009

INTEREST RATE ACTION RAISES QUESTIONS

My 3 EUROPEAN STOPS

BEAUTY IN EYE OF BEHOLDER

There's your sinking US $ since 1980, there is your DOW always going UP long term based on US $...there's your GREAT BULL MKT in terms of real money gold.....oh my! WHAT rally since 2009?

*10 AM update.

Mich Sentiment falls to 66.5 MUCH below expectations and LOWEr than ANY point after 911 shock!

PPI and CPI show more deflation than any inflation threat....$ is as valuable as toilet paper...

BACK TO IT

This isn't going to cut it, adj M base slack
I see the US $ also has crapped out....so markets maybe also playing a little more of thet liquidity game Man what a trip, Paris,Switzerland, and Venice....but I am roasted, air cond in house busted....air travel fatigue....maybe sick too.

I will share much more, today or tommorrow...hope everyone is doing well

Duratek

WEEKLY LONGER TERM VIEW. LAST POST TIL JULY 16th

Because of unbusually INTENSE selling into 2009 the 2009 buy cross signal came very late. PRICE rose into area of worst of the crash zone, and right into FIB retrace zone.....we could and I am arguing that was significant to CONSIDER the 2009 MArch rally a bear mkt rally and maybe it was over.

Now almost 3 months later technicals getting torn up, losses for year, NYA bear cross, China bear.....cross above......no proff of job gain traction, housing price or saes traction, fictional banking profits accounting making SPX look better than it is (BIG ISSUE IMHO).

Historical credit and debt abuse since 1920's? followed by historic FED and GOV intervention and stimulus....begets economic sustainability and new bull mkt?

How about considering how the worst bear markets in history have ended? 6% plus dividend yields on the SPX 500, single digit PE ratios (NO FUNNY ACCOUNTING).....at LOWS.....not many interested....bargains of a LIFETIME....whole generations swearing off stock market.

We've had 16 90% volume days since April!! 11 have been DOWNERS!!!! isn't that UNUSUAL for a primary uptrend?????!!!!

Weak volume since March 2009 cyclical rally on up days excused away???? again NOT typical of new bull mkt.....not at all.

BULLS, it was NEVER an open and shut case. Certainly VIX 80 !!! put enough fear, dropped prices low enough, then SUSPENSION of reality and mark to market......fed the rally....HOPE!

HOPE always gonna be there.....seems like its faded quite a bit.....sour on the GOV actions....dampening of social mood.....99 weeks of GOV assistance now being extended AGAIN......600,000 STOP looking for work cause DROP in unemployment rate....how sick and twisted is that.....you gott look to be counted.

Duratek til then

DAILY SPX VIEW

Another potential is another hard drive down that gets reversed near lower trend line.....sellers ST exhaustion will ride opposite to 1040 ish or MAYBE upper trend line (summer rally? what not this year??)

Big CCi divergence. but MACD still on sell. This is all still short term discussion....bigger call is that we already are or never left Secular Bear.

D

ONE POTENTIAL SHORT TERM VIEW

WEEKEND READ AND BON VOYAGE

Credit Bubble Report Prudent Bear.com "unavailability of spending crisis"

"The problem today is not some misguided focus on inflation and balanced budgets. Hard money? Come on. The key issue is instead the evolving and worsening stresses associated with an historic boom in (all varieties of) marketable debt. To be sure, the markets are increasingly questioning the creditworthiness of various types of government debt from Greece to California. It should be recognized as a major issue that Credit concerns have made their way to the realm of sovereign and U.S. state obligations – the heart of contemporary “money” and Credit mechanisms. "

Everyone have great 4th, I'll be back ranting on July 16th.

Duratek

GRAINS OF SAND IN THE HOURGLASS

I will try to leave a nice post SAT, that will have to hold you til I get back on the 15th of July.

I'm not saying the market isn't going to rally at some point, even Monday....nothing but a CRASH is a straight line. But folks, this market doesn't look, doesn't fell right....it's trying to send a message to anyone who will listen.

If you're a regular reader you know I was warning back in April and last few weeks even louder some trouble was a brewing and I was getting more and more bear market signals.....even now I'll leave door open but barely a scant slither of light is leaking through.

Problem with banks was bad mortgages, the values plunging from face value....threatening a world financial meltdown...so what was solution?Look the other way, pretend it wasn't happeneing and allow banks to value the paper themselves.....banks are given NO REASON to lend why the f save them??????????????? so they could pay out LAVISH BONUSES on profits that didn't exist? or based on TRADING SMOKE FILLED ROOMS RUN ON COMPUTER PROGRAMS THAT GAME THE LITTLE GUY AND USE FED MONEY?

Are we back to square one again in this damn game where we get healthy by allowing banks etc to game the market hoping the dvance fuels an economic recovery?

WTF?!!!!!!!!!!! That's like treating cancer with massive doses of radiation and nothing else like back in the Gulag Archipeligo.....writen about in the book TO BUILD A CASTLE.....treating the patient the same way as decades ago....and it doesn't work, and it isn't working.

(HEY...this post is growing longer than I anticipated, and maybe....all I need to leave you with til I get back we'll see)

Now, when the market began its rally back in March of 2009, even less worse was heralded as improvment and the market rallied on the thinnest of premises.....and on S and P 500 earnings MOSTLY fueled by make believe financial earnings.

Castles made of sand....slip into the sea, eventually.

Now the bloom has fallen off the rose like it was sprayed with RAID and plant-be-gone. And so any rally is hard to take hold leaving the market open to panic selling.....IMHO surely oversold can lead to rally....but if NO UPLIFTING NEWS of real economic turn around.....it will be sold into.

WHO is watching their gains from MArch 2009 whither away? WHO is watching Alcoa back under $10 again? WHO feels comfortable "letting it ride?"

ALL the while the minions cramming into bonds and bond funds.....and at some point, boy that is really worrisome should THAT be the mutha of all bubbles and she bursts....sending rates skyrocketing and bond holders prinicpal bleeding like an eboli victim.

There's my sugar coat. Niece has 30th Bday tonight place called BLOBS PARK....lots of micro beers offered. If ever in B'more must go to Brewers Art Charles Street and order their RESURRECTION MICRO BEER (7% )

I wish everyone best 4th Of July, Love the country, hate the politicians and gamers who give a hoot about the little people...and pray for the return to a FREE MKT SYSTEM....if you f up...go off and die.....we pays our medicine as we go and let the free mkt dictate rates and where risk should go.

Duratek

HOW'S JOHNNY FAIR PLAY DOING?

"Their bonuses were based on profits they never made and the leverage they never could have gotten if the numbers were right - no one would've given them the money in their right mind," Davidowitz says.

I've been saying from DAY ONE of this rally that it coincided with the GAO decree that "we will suspend (reality) mark to market accounting rules" then SPX profits and in particular BANKING PROFITS appeared to recover and soar, even as housing vaues continued to fall!

Because of this GIFT, THEY were (you know who the lucky insiders) able to pay themselves near RECORD BONUSES! even as we got all the talk of "transparency" "Fairness" and NO THEY WON'T, but YES THEY DID.

Who isn't sick of this? "CHANGE"? Obama has brought us lots of change.....people flocking to Costa Rica and Ecuador in record numbers.... IF Change means LIP SERVICE and BIZ AS USUAL....we got extra helpings of that from the ONE TERM WONDER.

D

SMOKE ON THE WATER

Not going in the right direction Briefing.com morning data

o% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Everyone has dropped off the list, no longer looking, so the rate has gone to ZERO, all can rejoice! (yes I'm being facitious)

WHAT we focus on, drop in workweek and drop in wages....let them spin this as they will as a positive in some warped sense of maintaining the lie of recovery. How about less bad is good?

Here's a headline sent to me by email from THE STREET:

"Before the Bell: Futures Rise as Jobless Rate Falls " thanks for telling it like it is...

D

Music While You Read

There is much beauty in the world, not good to focus on just the negatives. There are the realities of the stock market, economy, and there are those of your life. I don't "sugar coat shit here" , I'm not Dr Bear Claw, but I don't walk into a Bear Den Cave if I know I would waken it's inhabitants and become winter fat either.

D

CLOSE CORRELATION HERE

Bad kind of cross here in yields. LOCK step action. Flight to "safety" can you believe it? Money backing out of overbought treasuries could fuel a rebound in stocks.

Inraday low Thursday is one level to watch, 1040 above which WAS support now could be resistance.

EMployment report due out today 8:30 AM but you knew that. Record lows in mortgage rates, record lows in sales.

Now this whole contrived rally was it not based on a V-SHAPED recovery? and we are questioning if there ever was one and MSM is talking dbl dip?

Now Census workers coming in and out of payrolls will make mess if making any sense of it.

Liquidity surge in oversold Euros and weakening $ could surge something.....it's always been about sustainability and the talk of EXTENDING BENNIES shows there is NO recovery in the areas we need w/o GOV interference.

D

US $ NOSE DIVES!

UGLY CLOSEUP

Looks do matter, trend IS your friend if you don't fight it, applies to bulls and bears alike. The 50 and 200 are telling us the trend is down. PICK a bottom if you must....

D

SO WHAT BEAR CROSS?

Well, if the 200 begins to turn down, then I can say with good chance, price is not close to a bottom. A cross when 200 is RISING is not as significant, cant say that now.

D

$5....$5....$5 FOOT LONG!!!

"DEATH CROSS" talk........lite reading. THEY don't seem to take it very seriously.

Tried to listen to GreenSCAM on CNBBS, after 2 minutes of dribble my sphincter shriveled to nothing, had to abort. yeah my sphincter had a death cross....

More so the direction of BOTH of these 50 and 200 day moving averages shows strength of trend.

"not unusual for this to occur..." so they say.....but NO BEAR MKT occurs w/o a bear cross....

"USUSAL RECOVERY" how so?

D

"MINUTE BY MINUTE GROWTH I TELL YOU!" Are my lips moving?

May Pending Home Sales Tumble to Record Low- AP
The number of buyers who signed contracts to purchase homes dropped in May to the lowest level on record, a sign the housing recovery can't survive without government incentives.

Mortgage rates drop to another low, 4.58 pct.- AP

Create jobs assholes, lower taxes, do the opposite the adm has already done. Fire the FED.......come up with some new catch phrases.......brooms, pitch forks and TAR on sale...

I was thinking one more or so WHUMP....low enough to set up rally to set stage for test of 1040 which fails and see ya later.....OR PANIC as weak hands get worried how far it can fall....

How far? how about retrace of entire MArch 2009 rally as it's based on BS earnings with financials allowed to fantasy mark assets (housing related), and fantasy V shaped recovery...I mean have we had ANY recovery?

D

MADE IN JAPAN

Overnight the NIKK fell another 2% to thud at 9,191 breaking above dbl bottom.

CLAIMS

Came in at an elevated 472,000 and more important 4 week moving average continued to climb, many hoorah the fact that job cuts have declined................that tends to happen when you lose 8 MILLION PLUS ALREADY!

So here we are, needing to rally, way oversold and little else reason

D

SNOOZER

Continuing claims this AM, no drama here. Only 2% plus stocks are running ABOVE their 10 day moving average. On many measures stocks have reached oversold levels that should produce a rally of some kind. Only the production of several 90% UPSIDE volume days on EXPNADING volume would change the general direction of the markets.

WHERE IS THE SUMMER RALLY? Oh it may come, but lots of technical damage has been done. Are there REAL data points that shows world economies can get off the canvas?

It will take more than me going out and buying a new camera..... ARE we in YEAR TEN of a 16 year or so SECULAR BEAR MKT? sorry to say odds favor that, stocks are BELOW levels last seen in 2000 some 10 years ago...

D