Saturday, July 03, 2010

WEEKLY LONGER TERM VIEW. LAST POST TIL JULY 16th


Because of unbusually INTENSE selling into 2009 the 2009 buy cross signal came very late. PRICE rose into area of worst of the crash zone, and right into FIB retrace zone.....we could and I am arguing that was significant to CONSIDER the 2009 MArch rally a bear mkt rally and maybe it was over.
Now almost 3 months later technicals getting torn up, losses for year, NYA bear cross, China bear.....cross above......no proff of job gain traction, housing price or saes traction, fictional banking profits accounting making SPX look better than it is (BIG ISSUE IMHO).
Historical credit and debt abuse since 1920's? followed by historic FED and GOV intervention and stimulus....begets economic sustainability and new bull mkt?
How about considering how the worst bear markets in history have ended? 6% plus dividend yields on the SPX 500, single digit PE ratios (NO FUNNY ACCOUNTING).....at LOWS.....not many interested....bargains of a LIFETIME....whole generations swearing off stock market.
We've had 16 90% volume days since April!! 11 have been DOWNERS!!!! isn't that UNUSUAL for a primary uptrend?????!!!!
Weak volume since March 2009 cyclical rally on up days excused away???? again NOT typical of new bull mkt.....not at all.
BULLS, it was NEVER an open and shut case. Certainly VIX 80 !!! put enough fear, dropped prices low enough, then SUSPENSION of reality and mark to market......fed the rally....HOPE!
HOPE always gonna be there.....seems like its faded quite a bit.....sour on the GOV actions....dampening of social mood.....99 weeks of GOV assistance now being extended AGAIN......600,000 STOP looking for work cause DROP in unemployment rate....how sick and twisted is that.....you gott look to be counted.
Duratek til then

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