NEAR TERM APPRAISAL

*click to enlarge

I can offer all kinds of opinions, today all I offer is my chart with the action.

I respect trend line break outs, and here using this OHLC method I can see where we had 2 tests of the break. So over the near term we should see prices edge higher. One caveat is we got here and now over bought readings leave market vulnerable to selling.

There ARE times where traders can get caught in market "CHOP" and lose no matter what they do.

ST trend would remain bullish unless IMHO prices fall back below trendline and then test that breakdown......so if rally has legs we should only see a brief shallow retrace.

I know the market can seem confusing to you, that is how it is set up, to confuse the majority of people. Many were warning right as the market was bottoming, for technical and fundamental reasons.

The fundamental reasons to dispute market strengthare still here, but just as we got (too many were watching?) the bear cross and the decline was digging in......the one thing the market needed was to rally right away....surprising many that is what has happened.

If long term investor, the last 10 years seem wasted, price is still below where it was 10 years ago....cept for Bonds and gold.....to win at this game you must always have some CASH....you must be willing to buy when most will not....when prices fall enough and fear is high enough to uncover some bargains.....you probably saw them.......you know what I mean.

You must be willing to sell before the top in some cases....and not buy the bottoms....by guessing.....what we want, what I enjoy is trend following....and when a trend gets going....tends to be safer buyin points.

NOW? I think we are stuck in a LONG TERM BEAR MKT, it's taken your money, if you let it, it will take more. Many smart people I know have been building CASH and selling this rally.

Many believe this rally and economic revival is directly from TRILLIONS of stimulus and FED action, most of which has come and gone.......so some company profits maybe look like their improving but the future is not clear.....and the ability of the economy to function on its own 2 feet was even questioned by the Fed Chairman.....

With fund rates sitting at zero, we get one of the if not worst selling month for homes since records have been kept. I won't go back over what I don't like.....

The market is now for traders, and if you believe we are in a Bear Market.......then you know how bottoms are made.

D