LONG TERM STOCK CYCLES SINCE 1900

SHOWS 4, 8 and 40 yr cycles


This is my observations from above link chart>--**One observation I see is that each time a cycle extreme high was hit (like in 1929) the bottom of uptrend channel (stocks always go up over time) was hit or breached. Until the late 90’s the mid channel was mostly not breached if so briefly. The top of channel was hit again in 2000. The reaction from the top in 1929 to1930’s lows was brief and violent. HISTORICAL FED and GOV’T bailouts and intervention have forstalled in 2002/2003 and again in 2009 the correction that was underway. WILL we hit the low end of this channel again?


**2011 is 3rd year Presidential Cycle, has been a strong bullish year of cycle, will it again? But it is coming with concencus estimates and experts near unamamous bullsih, along with polls and a VIX falling to 15, where is the wall of worry?