Thursday, December 02, 2010

PLAY THE GAME

The market trend is up, the market broke out of the rule of 4 trading area, and that rule states the move can be powerful after testing 3 prior times. I watch the SPX, April high is 1227.

If you try to break down reasons WHY anything happens it usually serves no good, especially if you are betting against the trend, not usally not a good idea.

But we do know ECB promises to buy up whatever is necessary to keep certain countries in euro zone afloat, FED already has pumped in Trillions, and this is why IMHO the market has rallied and continues to do so....next to FREE money flows to the large banks, and they are buying stuff, the market, tungsten, oil, gold...corn, wheat....

My friends this IS HISTORICAL in nature, the results to assets perhaps as well. DID we avoid another Depression, or is this 1930?

When themarket fell to 660 SPX from 1550 you buy that, maybe 10% of cash.....as trend reestablishes UP...you add more in increments....and you'd be sitting here today on a pile of dough.....if one always thinks the worst and keeps eyes closed, you can't play the game.

ONE HUGE CAVEAT....what did you do in 2000? in 2oo7? if you rose it up but down you had NO cash to deploy.....

If you have top notch FA, maybe you get shifted more into bonds, and miss the carnage, but are there for the glory.....is that what happened to you?

I think this rally may be stimulating the economy, just because I can;t personally see it doesnt make it not so.......but I do know how we got here, what is not being stimulated.....all the manipulating...and again BUBBLE BLOWING.....and feel pretty sure this will end and we will visit the lows.....but I didnt say any day , this may not be certain...its just what I think.

But when DEALS ABOUND, and we can define the trend....you gotta take what THEY give you....this is near impossible for most.....they become part of the herd.

This can change, push emotions aside, still dont gamble for BIG HIT.....I like the action, I dont like the values, bullishness nor backdrop....think about protecting gains if you are blessed to have them...

D

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