Wednesday, March 14, 2012


IMHO, we have extensive "broadening top" pattern here and there is good chance we top in the zone I circled as we enter the 4th year of this bull market.

I also do not think we are in a new LONG TERM BULL, a secular move as we have only printed our way out, piled new debt on the old and with 0% rates there is little to compete with stocks.

A falling VIX pattern leaves a big selloff off the table for now. In the past we have ended bull markets with a single digit monthly VIX print, so below 15 is not unusual.

As a trader if you let four fundamental views cloud the market action and FED back drop, you will let opportunities pass you by. However, NOW is not the time to get aggressive long exposure IMHO, even if more upside is coming, because it will be the last 10% to the the top that you don't want to chase.

I think the FED and Central Banks can change market direction, but if all you do is hide the problems, try to PRINT YOUR WAY TO PROSPERITY, that will not unltimately work.


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