MORE TRANSPARENCY PROMISED

CBO: Obama understates deficits by $2.3 trillion

Saudi's know how to buy off their people, offer jobs and money......

Currency intervention by the G-7 in order to "HELP JAPAN".....let's get this straight, the G-7 nations, together will attempt to manipulate currency market so the YEN DECLINES IN VALUE!

This will help the Japanese people and economy? how? by making everything they need for reconstruction MORE expensive by bringing down value of currency?.....so they need MORE OF IT? Japan is already one of the MOST INDEBTED NATIONS ON EARTH.

From what I understand.......the real issue is the ZIRP Japanese CB policy and carry trade games that have attracted quite a sepculative crowd.....these would include BIG BANKS and FUNDS who have borrowed YEN (at 0%) or SOLD SHORT YEN...and bought other stuff with it...a NO BRAINER...only one thing can harm these "SPECULATORS"......if for some reason the YEN rises in value...when you are short betting on its demise and fall.

MORAL.....like here. If you are the IN CROWD......you get bailed out at expense of all others........when will the little guy investor wake up and figure out "ITS A RIGGED GAME".

Savers here get GORED by 0% on savings (they need to suppliment retirement) and at same time the value of the currency $ is slip sliding away.......stable currency policy? haa

SECTOR supposed to be SAVED and BENEFIT from ZIRP and other assinine FED policies? HOUSING...how's that doing?

Duratek

"DANGERS OF LESSONS UNHEEDED"

JOSEPH STIGLITZ BARON'S INTERVIEW

WAGING WAR WITHOUT CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL VIOLATES THE US CONSTITUTION

"Therefore, when a U.S. president wages what might otherwise be considered a just war, if he has failed to secure a congressional declaration of war, he is waging an illegal war — illegal from the standpoint of our own legal and governmental system. And when the American people support any such war, no matter how just and right they believe it is, they are standing not only against their own principles and heritage, not only against their own system of government and laws, but also against the only barrier standing between them and the tyranny of their own government — the Constitution."

3 wars now? All 3 without FORMAL declaration of war and Congressional approval to wage war......it is so sad to me, that the avg American lays asleep to the raping of the constitution and would otherwise just roll over and show the other cheek to be defiled? or even realize something unsavery is taking place?

It's all about the Benjamins...not the Franklins......or the founding fathers....or about the average American......look how we always get SOLD OUT....where is the GOV'T option in health care?

There is NONE! and we got an 11% 2011 increase and it just keeps going UP....the health care bill was a joke!

D

FUTURES ROCKIN'

Japanese market closed overnight. OIL back to $104....weak $ ATT trying to takeover T Mobile....and it's Monday...what more do you need?

We will head right to 1290-1294 Resistance area.....

D

DOW LEVELS TO WATCH

Counter rally may now be in progress......retest of low could come after....

D

USING STOCKS ABOVE 50DMA

MARKET IS OVERSOLD?

Depends on WHAT time frame. for me this mkt keeps boogey woogey if holds above 1200....dashed uptrend line. 1209 is 10% from highs....1200 would also violate an L rule with 2nd 10% plus correction during bull mkt...already had one of 16% that was only halted by QE2...would not have on own....but that's OK.

JM2CENTS

D

JAPANESE GOV'T DOUBLE SPEAK

FUKUSHIMA, Japan – "Japan said radiation levels in spinach and milk from farms near its tsunami-crippled nuclear complex exceeded government safety limits, as emergency teams scrambled Saturday to restore power to the plant so it could cool dangerously overheated fuel.
The food was taken from farms as far as 65 miles (100 kilometers) from the stricken plants, suggesting a wide area of nuclear contamination.

While the radiation levels exceeded the limits allowed by the government, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano insisted the products "pose no immediate health risk."

SO which one is it? are they SAFE.....or does it exceed gov't saftey standards? They will lose CRED as fast as our FED !

Duratek

DAY TRADE SHORT SPX

Spotting patterns is a MUST to trade, observation is so important. Here the trend is down. We have the cross of MA'S, but more importantly I believe a CORRECTION is still in vogue....so I'm lookg for short entry.

At 1288 I spoteed a double top (dashed line), also see the 50 EMA was at 1285 and trending down...that's where price stopped.

Price peaked out of the gate, these bastards ramped it up in pre mkt...and by 10 AM that was best price of day....to ME...and by 2 PM that smelled like more distribution....and a rally was not going to ensure much.

I also had a low risk entry with a defined break point.....so there was 8 SPX points....if using E MINI @$50 a point, even 2 contracts yields $800.....real excercise here is can you define the trend, can you find the areas where pivotal action will occur be it support or resistance.

Those buying the night before, or holding the weekend are, IMHO crazy and out and out gamblers....as you see the days action at least at open is determined in the pits while you are sleeping....and the futures give those who wish to manipulate all the leverage they need.

Anyone that thinks CNBC is the place to get their info from.....probably never agrees with me....they turn my stomach.

D

SHADOW STATS

"Hyperinflation Special Report (2011) March 15th, 2011

• United States Nears Hyperinflationary Great Depression • Federal Reserve and Government Have Exploded the U.S. Fiscal Crisis, Shattered Global Confidence in the U.S. Dollar but Not Resolved Ongoing Economic and Systemic-Solvency Crises • High Risk of Ultimate Dollar Disaster Beginning to Unfold in Months Ahead, 2014 Remains the Outside Timing for Same • Contracting Money Supply Can Be Inflationary When Real Economy Contracts Even Faster • Major Economic Series Suggest Formal Depression in Place"

Lots of good stuff here, must be subscriber to get more details.

D

UNEMPLOYMENT ACTUALLY AT LEAST 10.3%

According to a more reliable Gallup poll...UNDEREMPLOYED closer to 20%

US $ WEDGE BROKEN

View of destruction of a currency. By devaluing the US $ the powers feel they can FOOL you into thinking there is prosperity....more NEW $'s issued (lesser value) to pay the debts of the OLDER $'s (you can see much higher value)....gains in stocks and other paper assets a joke.

D

ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE SKYROCKETS

ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE An almost $400 BILLION increase since January.....the most since 2009 crisis began.....and we're 2 years into recovery??????????? still at 0% interest rates? STILL playing games with currencies? STILL claiming there is no inflation?

From ZERO HEDGE "adjusted M base goes vertical"
*(from Feb 24th) now even MORE SO!!

"A succinct reminder from Mises Institute: "The Adjusted Monetary Base is the one monetary component completely under the control of the Federal Reserve." As we expected a month ago when predicting the end of the SLP program, look for this chart to surge to about $2.7 trillion as the combination of SLP unwind and another $500 billion in UST purchases adds another $600 billion to the BASE. The increase of $142 billion in the last two weeks is the 5th largest Adjusted Monetary Base expansion in history. The ongoing verticalization of this chart may result in some further acuteness of inflationary expectations."

Explanation for the YEN rising is the prospect of rebuilding the tsunami area will attract YEN...rising currencies are BAD for exports as prices rise with appreciation....funny how a US $ in the TOILET isn't making much difference for us.....except stoke inflation......as cost of OIL imports and inflated economies raise prices of goods sent to US will get passed on to consumers at some point....if companies eating any of this, it should hurt their profits big time.

Yesterdays rally was strong enough on surface but volume fell significantly vs decline day....buying was more selective into big caps as small and mid cap stocks underperformed.

IMHO this is a SNAP BACK rally

D

ALL IS SAVED "Japan stocks jump on G7 Pledge"

Only 1,600 points to get back to where it was...but they're JUMPING...hoorah for a cheaper Yen.....

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) --" Stocks in disaster-stricken Japan opened higher Friday after finance ministers from the Group of Seven nations announced a coordinated intervention in the currency market to prevent the yen from rising further.

The Nikkei 225 index, the most prominent measure of stocks traded in Tokyo, climbed 260 points, or 2.9%, shortly after the market opened. The Hang Seng gained 0.5%, while the Shanghai Composite was flat."

Hey nothing like some good old intervention to fix things.......now would this plan light a US $ rally?

D

NOT SO RARE ANYMORE?

You buy into rare earth crazy at $62? or REE at $17? don't be a BAG HOLDER!

I see all kinds of sectors with charts that are rolling over including RTH (retail holders) and SMH (semi's)

D

COPPER IS CONCERNED

CHANGE OF CHARACTER

Every YING has its YANG, nothing goes up or down in straight line....but goes down faster.

"Emporer has no clothes" the FED POLICY of ZIRP at any cost has been debunked. HUGE inflation at PPI level is going to filter through everything we buy. Only a liar and a fool say we have no inflation....and yet we have DEFLATION TOO...in HOUSING....it''s where the majority of Americans store their wealth.....and it has not responded at all to all the stimulus and games.

Were it not a forced change from mark to market accounting, this turd would smell like one instead of a few day old rose....SPX earnings are a sham.

Sure the indexes canpull out of the nose dive, but why guess? the MA'S I use are beginning to bend down and merge....on a ST basis I use 20 and 50 periods on the daily......then 50 and 200. This can also be used on weekly....and you can see the action without commentary or opinion.

When the proper MA'S are rising or falling together after a cross up or down....THAT'S YOUR TREND...fighting it is stupid.....you want to pick a top or bottom go ahead.

YEN delevraging carry trade and oddly rising yen value put some giddy up in stocks and they work off oversold.....that is basically stocks 101....we go from one extreme to the other and back and forth.

If down trend continues to gain steam vs uptrend, once or before oversold gets worked off prices fall to next level seeking a price most will pay.....deem attractive.

I think after recent events in Middle East and Japan.....complacent behavior is suicidal

Duratek

CLAIMS REMAIN HIGH

Briefing.com

Revised last report from 397,000 to 401,000. 385,000 this report, NOT indicative of an economy gearing up to create jobs.

We had a 90% down volume day Wed, and now the expected bounce off oversold begins.......

CPI came in HOT at .5%, but you know the game, strip out the important stuff and no worries...

THE US $ is off 1% to 75.94 this morning.....how about that FLIGHT TO QUALITY? now at lowest level of 2011..rally is based on U S $ in the crapper....

Duratek

S&P takes out the LOWS for the year

Market is now oversold and DUE a bounce, there are rumors a new eletrical feed is being run into the NUKE plants in Japan to get water coolers working and maybe avoid total meltdown.

That the market would use to feed a counter trend rebound.

Beaking prior 2011 lows and on a close is BEARISH IMHO, but it will take time for this to show on the longer term MA's.....so at MINIMUM short term bearish technical damage has been done......we leave it open for any possible outcome, but the ST has turned bearish.

The 20 and 50 EMA'S are turning over, rolling over.....if they both begin to descend.....it will act as Resistance to any ensuing rally.

WE KNOW mostly the 2009 rally was built on.....FED actions....and FED actions are about all that has kept it going....feeding speculation instead of being a true FREE MKT system that reflects reality.

The hosuing data today was so specious, that only a fool could find something good in it. WE HAVE MADE LITTLE OR NO HEADWAY since 2009......but stocks don't reflect that REALITY because of the manipulation which is being used to help us feel better....trickle down economics.....sure hasn't sold many homes.....meanwhile savers getting raped....I am expecting rally soon.....I don;t think lows are in....I wish CNBC would have that asshole on that told everyone yesterday the "LOWS FOR THE YEAR ARE IN"....well he was proved wrong today.

Things are going on, OK, I get that......but they wouldn't at all without the secret kisses from the FED and they cannot stop.....so inflation will always be downplayed like it doesn't exist....and any data they want can sound wonderful....cept maybe the housing data....housing is right where it was at 2009 LOWS, the worst it ever was.....STOCKS surely are not!

Duratek

FEAR IS GROWING

SPIKE to VIX 28 is highest on this move, fear is growing....it should be. Test of stab to 1261 but I am more interested in the price as a closing basis.....

D

HOW TO LAY AN EGG

575,000 expected only 479,000 was actual....huge miss and number is 2nd worst in history. LOW interest rates doing more HARM than obvious good....but they won't stop until gassed

D

SPX 5 MINUTE CHART

RESERVE CURRENCY AND VALUE AT STAKE

Rally from lows of 2008 is at jeopardy.

D

NUKE SELLOFF COMPLETE?

IT came with market already ST oversold and FED MEETING DAY.....not the stuff of selloffs that hold.

Some on the HAIR CHANNEL were already talking it up as "the low for the year" and "BUY THE DIP" chorus was sang from room to room.....but it was Barry Manilow

D

WEDGE BREAK DOWNS

IMHO we may have enterred the SELL THE RALLY MODE, even if just for the ST....bulls don't worry FED will save the day

D

SPX 1260 COULD BE A BIG DEAL

Transports intra day made a new low for 2011, FED meets and that may hold the market where it is right now.....how it closes could be VERY important in thenear term at the least IMHO

Target LINE IN SAND after 1260 is 1200 (using my renko charting)

Duratek

JAPAN STOCKS OFF 10% !! US FUTURES- 32

You can never grow too complacent in the stock mkt, some times you may not know what lies around the corner...a TSUNAMI and now NUKE CRISIS??? you are now witnessing the other side of investing...FEAR

D

UNCERTAINTY

Bloomberg stock futures show trouble brewing if accurate SPX-19 would be new low for move reinforcing current ST downtrend which I had been warning against.

Japans NIKK is off another 6.5% at 8,999 that's 13% in 2 trading days....you may think our markets are just shrugging this off mostly, but consider the rally for the last 2 years has been supported by FED liquidity games and has no real underpinning in economics or common sense.

There's a place where the rubber meets the road, where NEW DEBT added to the old debt in hopes of reinflating a bubble or blowing a new one in hopes of not paying the price of the prior mal investments and greed......you can run but you cant hide forever....we must prepare for what is inevitable....and the law of nature and gravity...this is NOT the time to remain complacent, IMHO

D

WHEN "THEY" WORRRY "WE" SHOULD WORRY

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Pity America's poor millionaires.

"Almost half of them, it turns out, do not feel rich enough despite their out-sized savings and nearly two-thirds fret over the chance that rising taxes might further erode their enviable nest eggs, according to a new survey.

Fidelity Investments, the Boston-based financial services company, polled U.S. households with assets to invest -- excluding workplace retirement accounts and real estate -- of at least $1 million.

Of the more than 1,000 millionaires who responded, 42 percent said they just do not feel all that well off.

Fidelity then asked the unsatisfied cohort of millionaires what it would take to make them feel better about their net worth. The answer: assets to invest of at least $7.5 million.

For comparison sake, the average U.S. household has a net worth -- including retirement assets and real estate holdings -- of just $86,000, according to the Federal Reserve.

Sixty-four percent of the millionaires who participated in the Fidelity survey said they were "extremely or very concerned" about the impact of potential tax changes on their investments -- and were talking with investment advisers to minimize the impact."

**FED meets tomorrow, no MIRACLE DIP BUYING today, pre FED bias IMHO.....this decline is not over IMHO as well

D

THIS IS NOT A THRILL RIDE

ADJ MONEY BASE

S&P 60 MINUTE DOWN CHANNEL

I am looking for resistance where the MA'S meet

D

"All I Got was This Lousy T-Shirt"

I'm not all lathered up enough to peel off a one for the ages posting, so I'll give you what I got.

Earthquakes, Tsunamis, nuke reactor meltdowns, Asian inflation, and Middle East clashes, unrest and potential oil delivery disruptions.....Euro Zone downgrades.....hey but Martin Armstrong just got released from prison.

ECRI still growth improving. Many aspects of growth in economy here are not visable, and the "experts" keep telling us don't worry until gas is $4.50 a gallon for signs of slowing consumer demand.

Not too many GAS SIPPERS on the road here in the U.S.........$65 FILL UPS are NOT making consumers feel flush in the pocket.

We haven't even started the summer drive explosion where prices peak out.

We have a recovery of sorts, even if it doesn't seem like it, but that recovery of sorts has NEVER been on sound footing....$4 gas is not going to help.

There are signs of weakness in the bull wall, but it is FAR from ready to crumble......IMHO the decline is not quite over based on the broad weakness and slack demand on the rebounds......there will probably come a price that will attract more buyers, that will also show in multiple 80% up volume days or 90% days.....that hasn't occured yet.

Let's face it, housing is not going to be part of this recovery, not for some time.....that does beg the question what is driving the recovery and is it sustainable......I have my doubts there.

D

WEAKNESS FINALLY TRANSLATES INTO DECLINE

Primary uptrend not uprooted, but this weakness is porbably not over, unless we see ROBUST buying return. 3 90% down volume days in last 3 weeks w/o a 90% up day

D

NATGAS COMPRESSION

Could BUST to upside if OIL continues rising. NATGAS seems to be in plentiful supply

COPPER'S TOPPISH ACTION

todays action should it not recover on a close could give us important info on near term action. The narrow rally was ready to roll over.

After a 220 point route on the Dow Thursday....a weak Friday does not bode well for the ST and maybe the IT trend....we won't jump ahead, but we HAVE been on guard.

ALSO YESTERDAYS ACTION qualified as a 90% plus down volume day.....I showed on closing basis prices broke below previous range......maybe signalling traders sell signal. (who else showed action that way?)

Consumer Sentiment drops from 77.50 to 68.2

D

Back to 1294-1295

FUTURES POINT TO WEAK OPEN

Initial claims jumped back to 397,000, concensus was for 380,000.$ strength based on Euro zone weakness. Trade deficit soared to $46B, $40B expected will cause a downward revivision to GDP.

Higher pump prices will cause a pullback in some consumer spending. TXN, NFLX, FNSR, JDSU and several other high tech names dissapointing and being taken down, FNSR fell over 30%yesterday.

Chinese exports dissapointed
"Chinese February Trade Surplus Drops So Much It Becomes Deficit, Largest In 7 Years"

TROUBLESOME DOWNTREND ESTABLISHED HERE

STAGGERING NUMBER

"WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of Americans who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth rose at the end of last year, preventing many people from selling their homes in an already weak housing market.

About 11.1 million households, or 23.1 percent of all mortgaged homes, were underwater in the October-December quarter, according to report released Tuesday by housing data firm CoreLogic. That's up from 22.5 percent, or 10.8 million households, in the July-September quarter.

The number of underwater mortgages had fallen in the previous three quarters. But that was mostly because more homes had fallen into foreclosure.

Underwater mortgages typically rise when home prices fall. Home prices in December hit their lowest point since the housing bust in 11 of 20 major U.S. metro areas. In a healthy housing market, about 5 percent of homeowners are underwater."

TECH DISSAPOINTS

NFLX, JDSU, CIEN and FNSR (30% !) all getting haricuts

SPX IN DAILY WEDGE

1330 near upper corner of wedge, in trading range for now, hard to call this a correction with only 1344 as nearby top....market continue to show reluctance to sell off even though recently buying as cooled.

D

80% DOWN VOLUME DAY

WE do keep getting these miracle late day recoveries but the truth is there was serious selling today.....I don't think the current currection is over, and then we can determine if we have another buying opportunity.

Institutional selling has surpassed buying, this has not happened in awhile......keep an open mind.....trend is currently in correction mode......any EASING of current problem areas like OIL and MIDDLe East tensions might help turn attention back onto stocks.

AGAIN, I think EASY MONEY has been made, but there is NO proof of a bear sighting....if and when I do I will post that.....other than risk assets, FED has made sure no other game in town cept sidelines.

How we got HERE? TOO MUCH DEBT.....inflated mortgages.....when bubbles burst it takes time for the deleveraging process.......which is now taking place.

BUT there is the rest of economy that did not inflate in a bubble, and my hope is there is hOPE!

OVER STAYING your welcome is what has hurt the FED policy in the past......OK, we have so far avoided total DISASTER.....we may not want a tightening and that coming just as we're trying to grow....but we also can't allow OIL to rise to $150....

If foreignors sell bonds to BUY STOCKS.....won't that put more pressure on interest rates and add to the stress? Because our GOVT is going to need to float a LOT more debt going forward
....low interest rates have help ease some of that pain....that may be changing
D

RAY DALIO

*DO NOT MISS THAT VIDEO I POSTED, he is sharp guy, who else would get that much time on CNBC, he made the hapless hosts look even more rediculous...it pays to listen to a guy THAT sucecssful making money in the markets.

For now we have a bull cycle, and it pays to follow the trend. We should get a trend change signal when its time, and at least we may be close to a ST one.....but the flow of funds is strong equities with CB'S keeping the gas flowing.

WILL $105 plus OIL and inflationary signals cause CB'S to TIGHTEN? I had nice chat with buddy today and this tidbit came out....."the FED did what they needed to do to avert a Depression...which would you prefer INFLATION or DEFLATION?" that should be easy answer...inflation, but both can be destructive....can the FED and CB'S keep this fragile recovery from stalling and keep inflation from escallating?

Maybe sweet spot has gone, but my prayers are that we will SLOWLY continue to heal, and help those who need it......hey man I'm doing my best to keep open mind....and also try to present both sides.

D

IS OIL GOING TO TAKE ITS TOLL?

The MACD appears to be rolling over, and with OIL at $105 and no QUICK settling of war and tensions in middle east, PLUS $100 OIL may be here for awhile and its going to take its toll on consumer spending and transportation costs.

The S&P 500 fell back to the lows of a few trading days ago and recovered from there, the closing price was right under breakdown from the wedge I posted few days ago at 1310.

We should know a lot more in the coming days.

D

RAY DALIO INTERVIEW

Has the rise in stocks from 2009 been anticipating this flow of funds into the USA, and continued CB easing, which devalues currency and stokes speculation?

Interesting interview

D

WILL $100 PLUS OIL CAUSE SLOWDOWN

JULY 28 2006 !!
"Oil at $100-a-barrel may frighten anybody with a car or a fuel-intensive business, but analysts from Standard & Poors said Thursday that a price spike of this magnitude wouldn't send the U.S. economy into a recession.

S&P chief economist David Wyss said if crude-oil, now trading above $74 a barrel, were to climb an additional 33 percent it would slice about 1.5 percent off annualized economic growth. That would still leave the American financial engine moving forward."

I guess we shouldn;t worry about a slowdown at $104 either....

Duratek

HEAD SCRATCHER

2 DOLLAR TARGETS FOR SUPPORT

Considering the recent Middle East turmoil, it may be saying a lot about the HEALTH of the US $ as Reserve currency to witness it losing value and more money flowed into the EURO and gold/silver as safe havens.

There are a MOUNTAIN of Treasuries to be sold going forward.

SPX SHORT TERM

1294 at bottom, 1332 double top ahead are key areas.....wedgie forming

D

ALU MOVE

12 year wedge pattern, you can see price is right there. Does it haveneough JUICE left to throw itself over and man it could run after that.

CCI is warning of potential topping. I was incorrect on initial break out about the gap left, you can see on a daily chart....for now it was left behind.

Let's see how this plays out

D

END OF CONSUMER DEBT BINGE?

LOOK closely at above chart, observe HISTORIC growth during the 1980's BOOM...all the way until just recently. The 2000-2003 Recession that wasn't didn't halt this growth.

The current decline is UNPRECEDENTED, the gov't (debt machine) and FED have stepped In to SUPLIMENT this loss of debt/credit creation......hosuing is a key component to our economic puzzle and I have shown it has been totally resistant to all that has been thrown at it....in attempts to revive it.

D

CLOSEUP OF MONEY VELOCITY

LOOK what correspeonds to the rise and FALL of the stock market

PICTURE WORTH 1,000 WORDS RISE and FALL? no just rise

FACT OR FICTION

*recommend read the entirety of Doud NOland's column this weekend

Many don't agree, but I find (even if repetitive) Doug's column a MUST READ weekly. If you're friggin nuts you can read ALL the details from word one, or like me skip to the commentary.....though you may miss some good tidbits.
Sure he has opinion, but he approaches from a data point factual framework, IMHO (who cares) he rarely discusses how this would effect the stock mkt, except to basically say....monies created find their way BACK to paper assets.
YES, of course $TRILLIONS that were not in existence a few short years ago have FUELED a WORLDWIDE BULL MKT.....but like any thing dependant on stimulus and artificial demand cannot survive without it.
The gov't and FED (you can argue HAD TO!) stepped in (STILL) where there was a HORRENDOUS HOLE TO FILL (Depression awaited).....that in of itself as PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT demand has not reignited.......was and is a temporary fix that is already reaching its limits of effectiveness and is creating imbalances of its own.
Without a HUGE RAMP UP in hiring and then said peoples coming off govt assistance, to fill the tax coffers instead of FED moentizing this charade fails and has ONLY pushed back the day of reckoning.
Case in point was the market reaction going into the lows of AUG already down 16%, advance decline line etc were falling for almost 4 months (Lowry's prerequisite for THE TOP), the FED stepped it UP with QE2......show me REAL DEMAND, SHOW ME a market or economy that can stand on own 2 feet? SHOW ME an interest rate manipulated by FED that isn't 0% !
F!!!! I LOVE a parade, I LOVE BULL MARKETS, ....shoot me or try to understand why the last 10 years plus I have FOUGHT URGES to speculate and spent more time DEFENDING MY WINNINGS.....(add in my personal business experience, family history of gambling,..and maybe you understand why I communicate like I do.
I am not smarter than anybody, I could be a dumb mf'er, but we ALL are the SUM of our experiences and thru the eyes who witness. YES DAMMIT we have a BULL MKT, YES MAKE MONEY REJOICE, don't try to tell me anything good is happening here.....prove it to me.

WHat happens to a house of cards eventually? read DOug's column, keep reading it until you understand his message

Duratek

HECLA MINING WEDGE BREAKOUT

Folks I could do this all day long, but I curently reside as VP of a company hurt by the economy and hurt by a family members mismanagment. I am considering leaving the company and I have several options....will keep you informed.

If I observed the market 24/7 there is NO doubt I would be succesful....tirades aside....2 dif things. Trading is NOT the place for rants and emotion...we don't wade in against the tide....there will plenty of time when its right, to instead short the rallys....its a buy the dip world right now until it isnt....

D

OPINION ON BIG PICTURE DOES NOT INFLUENCE MY TRADING

I think things may go to hell in hand basket, but if WE follow the trend we can make money and be on alert for trend changes....this is just an example of how I do it.

I am adamant in my opinions on things, but if you can keep that seperate from your desire to make money, join the few.

D

MADE MY LIST AND CHECKED IT TWICE

help me "SEE THE LIGHT" what did I forget or use faulty logic? If I invest....and ONLY think "rising price good ughh oomgawah..." I would be missing the bigger picture and trend.

WHAT IS THE TREND? Bullish...rising MA's....this I have repeatedly conceded, I will concede, be it oil, gold or SSO....be long and strong......when you see what I have written, when trading ONLY ONE THING MATTERS....TA and TREND......my argument is at SOME point, unless the list changes below.....this recovery in most terms is the weakest on record...where it counts....maybe that made it even more obvious (of course the FED even told us to our faces) they would make sure the stocks markets would catch fire, stay on fire....we got your back forever....as long as it takes...whatever it takes....


Positives

• Low interest rates, makes borrowing more affordable
• Companies have cash horde
• Low wage inflation
• 3rd world demand rising for foreign goods
• Fed environment pro liquidity
• Stock market appreciation wealth effect
• New technologies
• High productivity
• Layoffs have slowed, hiring increasing albeit slowly
• Rising energy prices may finally ignite alternative energy funding and development, adding jobs to that field

Negatives

• High unemployment persists
• Rising interest rates
• Tight bank lending standards
• Consumer savings rate rising
• Consumer sentiment low by historical standards during recovery
• Housing sales and values have not stabilized, near 2009 lows
• Consumer loans contracting
• Low rates hurt savers, only returns on risky investments
• CPI and PPI understate inflation
• Oil above $100 and Gas near $4 hurts consumer spending (in the past if persist have led to Recessions)
• Gov't spending at Federal and State levels under budget cut scope, decreased gov't spending would hurt economy
• Workweek and wages stagnating
• In regards to debt, jobs secular changes may be in place
• Retail jobs decreased in last job report
• Mark To Market accounting change OVERSTATES financial company balance sheets and profits, which overstates SPX earnings.
• Housing has led 7 of last 8 Recoveries from Recession, not this time.
• Fed rates at 0% causing distortions, inflation and have been ineffective in helping housing market, yet it persists....this 0% policy and QE programs have emptied the FED arsenal to fight slowdown and crisis.
• Reluctance of FED to remove 0% policy shows worry economy cannot function on its own. This would be indicative of a weak recovery, not a strong one.
• Continued inflationary pressures will begin to cut into company profits, and IMHO we are VERY near PEAK PROFITS.
• High energy prices filter into every sector of economy and damage Consumer sentiment and spending. Every trip to the pump, for most at least once or twice a week constant reminder of rising prices.
• Companies will raise prices and add surcharges to combat rising fuel prices.

SPILT MILK SOURS, WEEKEND COMMENTS

"In the final analysis, when it comes to gauging the probability of “ultimate success,” I fear that our policymakers have pilfered our nation’s assets for the perpetuation of problematic – and in the end unsustainable - Bubble dynamics."

bubble report Doug Noland

WHAT IS MY #1 FEAR? going bald? too late... already did. Shrinkage? Getting into a public rest room, then realizing there is NO TOILET PAPER!! or given a key to unlock the door and it doesn't open?

We're given a key to unlock world dynamics and possibilites. And I'm not saying to ever quit or dream, or a blue sky can appear, or you might even win the lottery. But that is more likely than this all turns out OK.

You CANNOT pave a road that will lead to prosperity by enslaving your population to never ending DEBT! You cannot GROW an economy built on lies, deceit, and more debt piled up on top of the already unsustainable mountain of debt that already existed....never before has that worked nor turned out well.

NO ONE goes to jail in the grossest financial pilfering in our country's history, NO ONE....not a daggone person did a doggone thing wrong.....so much more fairness and the promissed transparency.

WHat is very transparent is the fact we've been HOSED! WHat are those people doing in elected offices? Even ROn Paul and his tea baggers....why haven't they flayed Bernanke yet? invited him for lunch and then he's never seen again? They ship him off to Zimbabwe where he belongs.

OK, you conservative person, just minding your own stupid business, counting your savings....you see that US $ slip sliding away and ONLY matter that holds it up is some of the others in a steaming boat too.....and that MOUNTAIN OF NEW DIGITAL PAPER is just sitting around not doing anything but making bankers rich and helping to cause inflation pressures build.

COMPANIES have a mountain of cash a regular HORDE they tell us, so why do most fell the best way to use it, is to buy back stock which helps inflate earnings?

If the economy was so HOT TO TROT, why can't the FED raise the funds rate one scinitila?..."gotta keep this resounding revival going...." yeah because if THEY even take one moment of breather and foot slips off gas pedal....the curtain comes downs, the facade melts away and the lies are exposed.....or THEY WOULD ALREADY HAVE DONE THAT after a 100% goosing of the only asset class they seem to care about

Duratek rant over

ALL IS NOT WHAT IT SEEMS

ONE MORE THING

WHat stood out this AM from the employment data was 9,000 REATIL jobs were lost....I'm running out of gas tonight, but come on.....if the CONSUMER which drives this economy and any economic rebound is really out in DROVES spending....(and don't you DARE tell me it was the weather...) A DROP IN RETAIL HIRING would be last thing my brain should be trying to process....

MIRACLE FINISH BUT THAT'S NOT USAIN BOLT!

DAGGONE ZOMBIES came out with 15 minutes left...AUFKME? yes read my lips....father was no preacher.

Internals don't show a great day for stocks but all that will be talked about ad "hair" nausem...on MSMBC...is the "amazing comeback late in the day, buyers were SWOOPING up BARGAINS like they were at the $ store...(is it ture not everything is a $ at the $ store? what sense does that make.....keep charging a $ and make the puny portions even smaller, no one will notice.

$104 oil IS going to put a sleeper hold on this economy, I mean, even at Outback (I had a $25 gift certificate) it didn't fill up until 6 PM....then line out the door.

WHY is that place SO popular? It's like a POnderosa with BLOOMIN

ONIONS....they were everywhere even with the WARNINGS....."may cause instant heart attack...." I am thinking outback is NOT where the beautiful people congregate...

"don't quit your day job Duratek"......don't worry I won't, more than likely my business will fail because the economy is SO HOT I cannot get the shit fast enough to satisfy my customers......and they go somewhere else to find it IN STOCK (no such thing).....and I could join the MILLIONS who find themselves scratching themselves in places they didn't know they had trying to figure out why THEY were the only ones not enjoying the amazing economic revival spreading all across the land like dandelions....and wonder what I did wrong.....of course at some point I won't even get counted and no one will even know I exist...what a bitch!

Maybe I should run for Congress, be lucky and serve 2 terms, then can retire on a full pension...you know like normal folk can. (gosh everytime I review a post I am coming back to fix typos!)

Duratek

GREATEST RALLY FIAT COULD BUY

Greatest rally money could buy, maybe NEW highs maybe SPX 1600.....when it DOES TOP, all BULLS DO....min 50% retrace IMHO, next AMAZING buying opp at SPX 800(or lower) , heard it here...can't create bull economy from priniting press or 0% FED funds....an unbalanced economy is getting more so

ONE THING that needed healing "housing" is not.....OMG what a farce

FACTOID * 7 of the last 8 recoveries were LED by housing

Over 2 years into recovery, after 100% rise in stocks, week after week of MSM telling us how great things are getting, and FED cannot even raise raise .25% from record low 0%?

Remember all the mortgage paper....keeps losing value based on orig home value if those values continue to fall. If not for a GAO accounting change on how banks are ALLOWED to value said paper....from "mark to market" (current mkt value) to ?????? mark to fiction....would these banks be solvent?

I think the younger generation has seen enough to be MORE cautious about debt, and a secular change has occured towards that attitude.

My home is my castle....secular change in those who own a home and are underwater and especially from those who got foreclosed.

Savings are slowly rising....secular change here too to pay off debt, spend less?

Hiring....secular change here too? and many jobs lost won't be coming back, there is gross hesitancy from companies to hire and take on costs, health care...hit to bottom line...MUCH of increased profitability has come from lowering of head count and related expenses....not so much from increased revenue and not so much from INVESTMENT. all just MHO.

Duratek

IT'S ALL GOOD

"A chunk of federal dollars -- $39.6 million in November alone -- provides much-needed stimulus in the form of food assistance. Roughly 322,950 Nevadans, or 11 percent of the state, received federal funds to buy food in November."


Unprecedented growth of money

NOT ALL ENERGY CREATED EQUAL

Gallup Reports Underemployment Surges To 19.9%, February "Jobs Situation Deteriorates": As Bad As 2010

Gallup Reports Underemployment Surges To 19.9%, February "Jobs Situation Deteriorates": As Bad As 2010

Dead Nation Walking by Richard Russell

Dead Nation Walking by Richard Russell

UNDERNEATH IT ALL

As we go, now 14 points from rally highs (1330 vs 1344)....less and less stocks join in the fun.

Lots of commotion about unemployment claims falling to 368, 000, now this MUST be definitive proof we have turned the corner and a "HUGE WAVE OF HIRING" is just around the corner.

DO you think at some point.....most of the people shagged have already been taken out? OF COURSE IT WILL SLOW.......BUT WHAT ABOUT NEW JOB OPPS? less claims is one thing, NEW HIRES IS ANOTHER....we ned something like 350,000 jobs a month just to keep pace

Remember last report came out in 2 months rate fell from 9.8% to 9.0% !!! but when you look closer, the rate fell mostly because of how many DROPPED OFF THE ROLES....gave up looking.

Crisis' come and go....don't worry about nuthin' nor $100 OIL.....that is temp spike, most INFLATION is measured by wage presures, that is non existant......but when you think how goods are produced and transported...OIL above $100 is not a good thing....

There has been NO measurable relaxation of bullishness.

D

HAVE YIELDS TESTED THE BREAKOUT?

Bounced right off the dashed wedge and 50 DMA didn't it? Could also form a ST Head and Shoulders if right shoulder gets built.

Futures are bright GREEN, pointing to triple digit Dow gain....could be a FLAGPOLE day.

Unemployment claims came in "less than expected" around 368,000.....with Challenger showing layoffs picking up by 20% last report I showed yesterday, is the figure accurate and does it even matter?

We already know many have settled for LOWER paying jobs and part time jobs,where others have dropped off roles in sheer disgust in not finding a job and so are no longer counted.

OIL sits above $100....we haven't even gotten to the busy driving season yet......blues skies? full speed ahead? Capital flows and $ debasement creating path to US Equities?

Aren't we headed to a date certain that the US $ loses its Reserve currency status if the FED chooses that over other alternatives?

D

ARE THE TRANSPORTS JUST WORRIED ABOUT OIL?

Price now below 2011 lows and 50 EMA.....maybe early, but I'm on high alert....SHOULD THE DOW follow...so far it hasn't.

Duratek

"JED, MOVE AWAY FROM THERE!"

Merrill's Harley Bassman On Why This Is The "BIG ONE" And Its Implications

Merrill's Harley Bassman On Why This Is The "BIG ONE" And Its Implications

"bernanke shrugs off inflation"

"-- "Rising global demand for raw materials...coupled with constraints on global supply in some cases," are largely responsible for the recent increase in commodity prices, not the Fed's easy money policies.
-- "While obviously as problem for a lot of people," higher gasoline prices don't yet pose a major threat to the recovery or inflation.
Of course, Bernanke likely feels he has to project calm about these issues and we can't know what he's really thinking, although it's very possible the Fed chairman sees higher energy prices as a reason to keep the monetary floodgates open wide because of the threat posed to the recovery.

Still, his statements suggest a lack of concern about inflationary pressures that is increasingly out of step with the experience of consumers, and action in the financial markets. The Fed prefers to focus on core inflation measures, which remain at multi-decade lows, but that doesn't help anyone who actually has to buy food, energy or other "volatile" commodities stripped out of the core rate."
*THIS GUY IS AN ABJECT IDIOT

D

WHAT PLANET IS THIS GUY FROM?

*This has nothing to do with Ben, but loved it, and Paulson got this thing going didnt he? or NO I mean he saved us....

"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke offered a fairly upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy Tuesday, saying the recent surge in oil prices is unlikely to have a major effect on growth or inflation as long as higher prices do not become sustained.

Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee he saw increasing evidence that the economic recovery has enough momentum to become self-supporting."

THEN WHY are you keeping interest rates at 0% and stepping in buying BONDS with QE2 out of thin air $'s?

As I suggested, the very FED policies in place are DIRECTLY responsable for

A) the finacial crisis and B) INFLATION seen by everyone but him.

Duratek

"Cost of Fed Actions Starting To Outweigh benefits"

PIMCO EXEC SPEAKS OUT AGAINST FED POLICY VIRTUES

SPX CHARTS IN 3 TIME FRAMES

*click to enlarge

1290-1294 jumps out at me for nearby support. Today was a near 89% down volume day with overall volume gaining near 20% from yesterdays rally....there is a trend here.

I think selling has picked enough to say it has farther to go.....but we can't call bull mkt over by long shot, not at this juncture

D

NOW THIS IS FUNNY IF IT WASN'T TRUE

Bernanke: Lasting Rise in Oil Prices Pose a Danger- AP
"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (rogue's scholar?)says a prolonged rise in oil prices would pose a danger to the economy. But he says the more likely outcome is a temporary and modest increase in consumer prices -- not runaway inflation."

We certainly DONT have inflation? and FED POLICIES and US $ weakness and otflows have NOTHING to do with rising OIL and commodity pricing?

And not one of those nitwits is intelligent enough about the subject to pose this question to him?

all is lost... do any of the Congressman elected even have their GED?

Runaway inflation no threat? NO WONDER, these in crowd people probably have choffaurs..and never see the price of gas at the pump! And eat out on the gov’t dole and never see the check!
D

BERNANKE IS A HERO AND US TREASURE

New York (AP) -- Nearly everything is going according to the plan Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hatched six months ago.

During a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo., on Aug. 27, Bernanke outlined an effort to spur economic growth, prevent prices from falling and push markets higher through the purchase of government bonds. Since then stocks have soared, the unemployment rate has dropped and Americans have started to spend more.

"It's been a success," says Bill Gross, who manages the world's largest mutual fund at Pimco. Gross had skewered Bernanke's attempt to boost the economy, comparing it to a Ponzi scheme. "It's hard to dispute that since Jackson Hole the market is up around 25 percent."

It may be hard to dispute the market is UP! but I can DISPUTE that to say "unemployment rate dropped" and NOT SAY it was a DIRECT result of people DROPPING OFF THE ROLES.....is a mistatement at best...a lie at worst.

SO NOW the success of any plan to help economy recover is measured in STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE? doesn't that sound like it came from a Wall Street Insider?

Duratek shut me up?

CUT FUNDING TO WATCHDOGS???

ARE THESE GUYS JUST PLAIN CRAZY OR STUPID?

ONE ADDT'L NOTE.....SAVINGS RATE TICKED UP from 5.4% to 5.8% does that support notion that Consumer spending will carry the economy? or does it show perhaps a SECULAR shift in Consumer behavior?

D

MAKING A MOUNTAIN OUT OF A MOLEHILL?

Velocity of money has shown a dramatic slowing and contraction, see how it differs from 1980's to 2000 expansion? Normal expansion show a burst upwards of money changing hands, NOT SO THIS TIME

Expanding Household debt IS/WAS the engine that runs the US economy. In the most basic, simplistic of terms, when credit/debt is expanding you get economic growth, when the same is CONTRACTING (it isn't?) you get economic stagnation , Recession or worse.....in the pure meaning of what Kondratief seasons describe, we have entered the K WINTER and no man or policy can change the course of this force....delay it they obviously have, make it worse, maybe they did....KILL IT? NO

You can listen to all of those experts, govt and FED officials, the Kudlows and Cramers, the Hairs...but basically you only have to use your eyes, and your head.

I have shown charts of outstanding bank loans contracting, and Household credit contracting.....how does that EQUATE to a 100% stock market rally saying we have a V-SHAPED recovery and EXPANSION?

How do they mesh with fact that jobs are not being created, they are being extinguished? You know who has stepped in here don't you? GOV'T DEBT is said to be in neighborhood of $50 TRILLION to $75 TRILLION, and deficits are now equal to a years worth of GDP.

The GOV'T and FED again are trying to delay, avoid the resetting, re balancing and re birthing of the economy and mechanics that usually would take care of these things are being thrown out the window and under the bus...there is no FREE MARKET SYSTEM HERE IN PLAY...just manipulation and attempt to fool the greater body of people into thinking its under control.

You DON'T need to think "why have they not arrested a single crook?" because they are trying to sweep it all under the rug, forget the past Worldcom and ENRON trials....TOO MANY CONNECTED PEOPLE INVOLVED THIS TIME!

You think the gov't really has new systems and controls over the Financial sector? haaaaa HOW ABOUT THOSE PROMISED DERIVATIVE exposure that keeps track of them and lifts the cover off this trash can? more transparency?

Fed balance sheet grows from $800B of good quality Treasuries to over $2.2 TRILLION of? stuff in 2 years.....GOVT deficits of $1.5 TRILLION a year and they talk about cutting it $100B per year for next 10 like that is a big deal???

Slowing govt spending will slow the economy.

GOVT CPI or almost ANY DATA for that matter is near worthless and can't be trusted...and tells us nothing about today, only yesterday which is gone.

The chart I showed of a falling CPI towards ZERO, that make any sense to you? The quicker money changes hands, the more economic momentum you gain.

The very policies beagn to help housing have been ineffective but have screwed savers and give NO incentive for people to leave deposits at banks which they could use for investment and business growth.

Polcies are fostering US $ weakness and worldwide inflation, especially food and energy.....otherwise maybe companies have weak pricing power and refuse to hire...skyrocketing health care costs are not contained and consume those who must buy it.

We are evermore dependant on Consumer Spending, and it seems to me, with a newly minted 6-8 MILLION looking for work, many accepting jobs at much lower pay (Businessweek story), how can they continue to do the heavy lifting?

NOPE, our money went for a bailout, the largest transfer of wealth in our history....and no one is being accused of wrong doing......how's that for your have's and have not's?

Duratek

NOT YOUR DADDYS RECESSION

BUSINESSWEEK ARTICLE LINK "A Recovery Built On Low Paying Jobs"