MAY SPX SWOON

*click to enlarge

There is a VERY good chance stocks have made THE TOP in this cyclical bull mkt that began in 2009, small investor participation was already, or better described as never bought into the recovery theme, so volume in the rally has been light.

Labor participation rates remain at or near historic lows, more than 25% of Americans are upside down in their homes and have no way out except default or to stay. If your home is not worth what you paid, pretty hard to refinance at todays historic low rates. If you can't sell your home, pretty hard to scoop up retirement home values.....still pressure on home valuations in most areas of the country.

The only thing the FED and GOV'T have been able to do is PROP up stock prices, for the last 3 plus years. This has done nothing for savings and investment. This has done nothing for credit and debt, only piled on more......the truth will never be told to the American public...there is NO savior, it sure isn't Romney, it sure isn't Obama.

Are you still 100% invested in stocks? It might be good idea to talk to your financial advisor and discuss what another BEAR MARKET might do to your current portfolio...just saying.

D

Simple game.....buy low, sell high

STOCKS ARE WAY OVERPRICED, and headed for a long fall IMHO. The economy is not as advertised, and if it wasn't for the FED and US GOVT backstop and propping it would not be anywhere close to where it is. We have artificial insemination of the markets.....we have a bastard market.

People, we don't have growth and if you even believe we have 2.2% GDP.....that's pathetic, stocks should NOT be at a premium here.

Simple game.....buy low, sell high

D

4 YEAR CYCLE TOP?

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2012/03/four-year-cycle-approaching-crest.html Decision point, great site by Carl Swenlin

As I've discussed before, if you only look at stock market performance through the eyes of the Dow Industrial 30, that is a narrow view. AS Bull mkts mature, it is normal for investors to get less risky and move money into the larger cap stocks. SO even as this may take the DOW to new rally highs, it is possible to see a good many companies begin to underperform, a WARNING sign trouble may be brewing.

Case in point, AAPL....after first breaking below $600, after earnings it ramped near $60 a share, why worry? but since then the stock appears to have rolled over.

Are stocks rolling over? I believe so.

D

POLICY THWARTS REAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY

REVENGE OF RISK OFF http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10659‎

"KEYNESIAN policies ensure historic expansion of gov't debt, blunt stimulus that inflates incomes and consumption while doing little to incentivize sound investment and a self sustaining, job creating recovery.....massive govt imposed distortions (and FED 0% rate policy) thwart necessary restrucuring."

and foster stock market speculation vs sound investment....FIX THAT!

EXTEND AND PRETEND

ALmost all the jobs being produced in economy are derived from the pretend numbers the Gov't makes up from its BIRTH DEATH MODEL.

If you factor in inflation it looks as wages and corporate profits are stagnant. I continue to contend we are in the process of putting in A TOP in the bull mkt that began in 2009 which was born out of FED intervention and gaming.

NO important structural changes or improvments have ocurred, all that has been been is ADD to the adjustments that are still needed and delay the inevitable......making it worse for most.

D

WEAK JOBS REPORT

Economy: "The ADP report showed that the private sector added 119,000 jobs in April. That's considerably less than the forecast of 170,000 new jobs, according to a survey of analysts by Briefing.com. It's also a significant decline from the prior month, when the private sector added 201,000 jobs.
Factory orders for the month of March are expected to have dropped by 1.8%."

Slowing world economies could not be seen as a good back drop here in the US. Fewer and fewer stocks are taking part in the rally to new highs, we have an aging BULL MARKET, act accordingly.

D

LEAKS IN THE DAM

WHat you see is APPL soaring, AMZN hyped even though they are projected to lose millions next qtr, but they sure do kill companies like Best Buy. On the surface you see the FED promising we still have your back.

Read The Many Facets of RORO  (risk ON, risk OFF)
 http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10656  When risk comes OFF the market will tank like a MF'er.

people buying 2nd homes, retirement homes? They must be the people that are not the 25% upside down in mortgage and home equity. And you have to be able in some cases to sell your existing home first, not always an easy task/

The $TRILLIONS wiped out in loss of home equity, the first time in history homes lost value YR/YR....may take decades to repair. In the meantime, it is the FED's mission to prop up and goose RISK ON assets. With less than 2% for US 10 yrs, what other game is there?

The US markets are still leaking as MILLIONS are withdrawn from utual funds etc.....the players that are left all chasing MOMO, trends, same thing....all using leverage...that CAN backfire.

There are technical signs, diversions that ALL point to the formation of THE TOP......IMHO the time is NOW to prepare....raise cash and it is my belief we are very far from where the bottom will be, so very close to where the top will be

D

WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE?

Generational LOWS in interest rates. Historical support for the markets and intervention by the FED and world Central banks. Government policies all geared for growth and support of economy including unprecedented 99 weeks of unemployment benefits and other government transfer payments. Some say housing is the most affordable in decades and stocks off great values.

Banks paying near nothing for deposits and Money Market funds, and a 10 year that can't stay above 2% yield, that we could hardily argue doesn't come close to even keeping up with inflation. But then how can a sub 2% yield for 10 years give any competition to stocks that have more than doubled off the lows of 2009?

Can I offer an argument where the focus is on RETURN OF PRINCIPAL, not RETURN ON PRINCIPAL?

Most only see the day to day price of the popular indexes, and maybe follow the VIX for indication if fear is kicking up. But it is important to look underneath the general information to see how the market as a whole is performing from a historical basis.

Here we see a different picture, one of fewer and fewer stocks participating in the march to new rally highs. We have gone from under 10% stocks which were 20% off their own highs when the market made new rally highs in April of 2010, to about 1 in 3 stocks at the recent April 2012 rally highs were already declining at least 20% or more.

IMHO the current BULL MKT is in the last, final stages, and the rallies are bringing less and less stocks with it , to the final high. AT the final high, if we haven't already seen it, a large % of stocks will already have fallen from their own highs by 20% and more.

More active management is suggested to peel off your under performers and maybe begin to build up a nice cash position, only holding your strongest, best performing stocks......if you feel it important to stay invested.

IMHO, most are positioned to try and eek out the remaining leg of the bull and will not see the top coming, will not get out, and will most likely suffer horrendous losses on paper again.

This game is not made for the majority to do well, we all can't win, for every winner a loser is needed. Most of the winners reside on Wall Street, not on Main Street. Now is NOT the time to remain complacent, to ride it out, to ignore the danger signs of an approaching top.

There is a limit to what influence the FED can have, as more and more drastic intervention and propping will bring fewer and fewer real world results. If this intervention and targeting of asset prices was the game all along, good chance the BEAR will awaken and bring values down to earth reflecting the real world economy, that never was given a chance to heal and purge the excesses of the prior period, only sweep them under the rug and BAIL OUT the players responsible for the crisis.

To this day, not ONE PERSON has been brought to justice for the financial crimes/crisis of the century.

Duratek

HOUSING RECOVERY

Isn't this what got us into this mess? Don't we need to see recovery here to see recovery in a REAL ECONOMY? Instead of one propped up by gov't spending and unaturally low interest rates FORCING people into the stock market.

D

RECOVERY WOULD INCLUDE RECOVERY IN YIELDS!

3 years into "recovery" and still 0% FED funds and an under 2% yield on the 10 YR TREASURY!

Transports weaker than SPX, look for 1386-1391 to hold for SPX On upside. 1340-1350 on downside, then 1300.

D

ANOTHER LEADER STAGGERS

By Tiernan Ray

Shares of solid-state drive maker SanDisk (SNDK) are down $2.76, or almost 7%, at $37.71 in late trading after the company reported Q1 revenue and EPS below analysts’ estimates and offered a Q2 and year revenue outlook that also disappointed.

We have had 2 key reversal days in APPL stock as well......yet VIX around 18 level not showing too much fear, if you are bearish that's exactly what you want to see...DENIAL

D

AA: WHAT PASSES FOR GOOD NEWS

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alcoas-shares-soar-unexpected-1q-145108611.html

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Alcoa Inc. surged more than 8 percent Wednesday after the aluminum manufacturing giant reported an unexpected first-quarter profit as it cut costs and improved productivity.

THE SPARK: Alcoa reported Tuesday after the markets closed that it earned $94 million, or 9 cents a share, in the first quarter. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had predicted a loss of 4 cents per share. Revenue rose to $6 billion from $5.95 billion. Analysts had predicted $5.77 billion.

THE BIG PICTURE: The results marked a turnaround from the $191 million loss that Alcoa reported for the fourth quarter but were 70 percent below net income of $308 million in the year-ago quarter.

The New York company's performance was driven by lower-than-expected costs and stronger demand from many customers, including automobile and aerospace industries. Alcoa and other aluminum makers are still coping with a global oversupply of aluminum and ongoing weak prices.

IS FEAR REIGNITING?

Today was another 90% down volume day. The real question is whether this is just a typical decline or the start of something much larger. Already this BULL MKT has crossed historical bounderies by having a 16% decline and a 19% decline, Bull markets do not normally contain 2 declines of plus 10%.

LONG TERM SENTIMENT IS BULLISH, and the shorts have been battered, so I'm not sure where the liquidty will come from. We are short term oversold, due for bounce. SPX 1340 key area, 1300 even more so.

Job creation slugged to a near halt last months report and was near half what was expected and a multi month low. Europe land is not settled in their own financial crisis....who is next. Their central bank is pouring Euros out their wazoo like the FED has here....they just call is something else, not QE.

Housing is not healed. Be thankful to have a job.

VIX hit 20 plus today. More companies will dissapoint this reporting qtr. GAS prices are killing the little guy shopper.

AAPLE touched $600 BILLION in valuation....was just $500B not that long ago...talk about a stock and tech in general ripe for collapse....they talk you into that they are special....shits a commodity like toliet paper until someone convinces you theirs is softer and won't get stuck in your crack.

Look how fast they run for treasuries driving the yield on 10 yr to below 2%!!!

My mother in law passed away a few days ago....then I will be out of town until mid week, all take care.....

D

RON PAUL KNOWS

"Whether Paul is the next President or not, the audience and most Americans would agree with Dr. Paul's statement that "the job of the President is to take his oath seriously and obey the Constitution."   That's a tall order given all the recent bills signed into law that negate the President's oath and the U.S. Constitution."

FORECLOSURE WAVE II

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-brace-next-foreclosure-wave-210253522.html

GARFIELD HEIGHTS, Ohio (Reuters) - Half a decade into the deepest U.S. housing crisis since the 1930s, many Americans are hoping the crisis is finally nearing its end. House sales are picking up across most of the country, the plunge in prices is slowing and attempts by lenders to claim back properties from struggling borrowers dropped by more than a third in 2011, hitting a four-year low.

But a painful part two of the slump looks set to unfold: Many more U.S. homeowners face the prospect of losing their homes this year as banks pick up the pace of foreclosures.
"We are right back where we were two years ago. I would put money on 2012 being a bigger year for foreclosures than 2010," said Mark Seifert, executive director of Empowering & Strengthening Ohio's People (ESOP), a counseling group with 10 offices in Ohio.
"Last year was an anomaly, and not in a good way," he said.

DO THE DARK CLOUDS APPROACHING REALLY HOLD A SILVER LINING?

"THE CLIFF NOTES" http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm  A MUST read IMHO, April installment of an always good read is now available and they do a good job presenting the TRUE current environment and economic performance without seasonal adjustments or other misdirection data that skewers the truth...

We are in a deleveraging environment, after building up historic levels of debt and mortgage growth...the Consumer is still in a wind down mode. If you take out "student loan" data instead of a healthy 4% growth to loans you get yr/yr growth of 0%. What does our economic growth look like without gov't transfer payments? Gov't debt has expanded at record pace since 2009 as default gate has unfolded.

The picture going into 2013 is less certain, extended Bush tax cuts are set to expire and long with payroll tax rollbacks, and let's not forget the unemployment benefits many have gotten for up to 2 years, unprecedented. There is talk, and legislation passed that require gov't belt tightening to begin in 2013, cutting back an important stream of spending that will be made up where? Consumers???

Last go round 2003-2007 approx, we had the refi cash out gold rush, which flooded the economy with new credit and spending. In most cases, home owners flush with PAPER GAINS in home valuations, fed off of their most important asset, in many cases turning it into a liability when home valuations came crashing down....try to get cash out now.

Many are STUCK in homes worth a lot less than what they paid and owe, so more likely consumers will keep trying to pay down debt, than go on some aggressive credit expansion mode.

Think about it, we have just came from period of record credit growth, and so we fix that, heal and prepare for the next healthy expansion by piling on MORE CREDIT AND DEBT???

Savers get HOSED, earning next to NOTHING, actually NOTHING if you consider real inflation on their hard earned SAVINGS. SAVERS are REAL PEOPLE TOO, and many have flocked to stocks paying dividends with a meager 15% thank you BUSH tax rate,,,,,DUE to expire end of year. With al this talk (is it just that) of belt tightening, will a dark knight really ride into to rescue the dividend tax rate when so many other areas need addressing? with all the TALK of fiscal belt tightening?

The stock market will begin to sniff things out as much as 9 months ahead of any abrupt change....and with volatility as measured by the VIX near multi year lows, meaning not too many are worried about tomorrow......shouldn't you be?

I am rethinking the chart and my call for new highs before the end of year, though still possible, price can but doesn't have to reach the TOP of the bearish wedge I drew, a close below SPX 1300 and hold would be initial sign IMHO.

Also we keep hearing the HAIR channel and others chirp about "corporations are FLUSH with cash...a cash HORDE!!!".....what is not repeated is that corporations are also more in debt than ever before with the punch bowl of lowest rates in generation, they have borrowed like drunken sailors and in many cases used the money to BUY BACK STOCK, and not for company growth and investment.

Can you really fix an historical credit financial collapse bubble burst....by adding historic more of the same?

D

NEW HIGHS COMING?

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2012/03/will-the-stock-market-run-to-new-highs.html

yelnick websute picked up on my chart from a while back, it's nice to have a respected established site use something I posted.

D

SAVERS BE DAMNED, KEEP INFLATING CREDIT BUBBLE

http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10648  Doug Noland
>>Watching it all, I struggle even more with the notion of “financial repression.” “Saver repression” and “bear suppression” make sense to me. Returns for the rationally risk averse investor are being depressed, no doubt about that. Yet it is an altogether different story for the financial speculator: Instead of repression, it’s Financial Liberation. Never has the investment landscape been so stacked against the saver and investor in favor of the speculator community.<<

REG gas now $4 or higher in most parts of the country, and we have not started the rise we usually get into the summer driving season, it seems destined that gas prices will go even higher.

Savers are repressed, even penalized as 0% FED funds rate continues unabated, this policy has managed to inflate RISK ASSETS, stocks to their best quarter since?....1998!!!

SO, did we avert a financial armagedon meltdown in 2009? or did we kick that can down the road, is it possible with even MORE dire circumstances and results?

A $500,000 nest egg of savings in a Bond Money Market, one of the safest places to store money, can only yield about $50 in interest.....$50 for half a million in hard earned savings......is no one asking how the FED policies are killing those at retirement age and those who do not wish to roll the dice with risk assets? WHERE is the balance, where is the incentive to SAVE, increase bank deposits?

And the still near 2% 10 year Bond stays low with continue Federal Reserve intervention now 3 years old.

WHERE in any handbook does it say....you avoid the PIPER if you continue to inflate a credit bubble that has burst with one even more unmanagable in scope? Bernanke, from all accounts I erad, will be seen in history's rear view mirror as one who handled the situation like a skilled surgeon. And will be lauded as one of the best FED Chairman we have ever had....he was just what we needed.

But at 3% 15 yr and 4% 30 year...the housing market has yet to heal, prices yr/yr continue to decline and existing homes for sale continue to sit on the market, hard to sell.

I keep hearing where Consumer Confidence is rising, but it sits so far below normal and any other recovery, no one talking about that. WHAT could stop perspective home buyers from buying a home right now? Fear? of what? keeping or losing a job? don't we have one helluva recovery going on now?

Hiring more people at this point may be OK for AAPL, but the increasing employee costs are starting to take a bite out of profits....spending on durable goods is still subdued compared to any previous recovery.

Amazon is putting the hurt to traditional retailers like Best Buy, who will close a bunch of stores, and needs to rethink how they go to market, Amazon is putting some hurt to traditional powerhouses like Walmart. Isn't it great as a Retailer, you rent the space, fill it with products and employees...so the wonderful COnsumer can come, see, waste your time, SCAN....and then buy from online retailers who have NO expenses for store fronts from where Consumers can touch and feel products to decide if they want?

WHY NOT go and sit on chairs in a store, then go anf find them cheaper online, thanks for nothing. Gd bless the internet.

So we will be left with a society that makes nothing, supported by Gov't payouts......making nothing, but buying everything?

WHO doesn't think that 0% interest rates, and the current policies won't lead to an even more catostrophic collapse?

Haven't we already witnessed since 2000 what such intervention will lead us too? And now even more HISTORIC FED and GOVT games, to put off that day of reckoning, the paying to the piper what he is owed.....already the GAP between the HAVE'S and the NOT'S is ever widening.....I hope in the end, social unrest is not what we get.....like we saw in Europe...

D

TACTICIANS OR HISTORIANS?

 Avg length of bull mkt 39 months. Aapl.skews earnings for naz and spx. Uphill battle to expand profits with rising costs to do biz. Have we already reached peak profits? Many lured into "hot stocks" as more and more breakdown .....trap being set, just not sure if new spx high reachable. For me that's near top of long term channel near 1550 I think.....if Obama elected because of putrid republican candidates and hot stock mkt, Bush cuts will die, divie stocks will lose luster....rates should rise..... My thinking for those who just hold, or have been waiting for the dip, if new new Bull, by all means grab horns and ride. If latter stages of 2009 Bull, think exit strat

D

TICK DIVERGENCE SIGNALS WEAKNESS

SInce the "RECOVERY" began in 2009 the GDP has averaged 2-2.5% per qtr. That is the weakest economic recover from any recession on record....and maybe only one where the job participation rate has continued to decline.

Recent durable goods orders were weakest in 20 months. VIX stands near 15...numb to it all.

CHINA is coming down hard....exports are down 10% YR/YR....commodities took a hit today....China has stockpiled all kinds of stuff.......overbuilt manufacturing, gov't trying to stimulate consumer demand.

If there is job growth, employment costs are rising, productivity falling...with a WEAK ASS GDP....am I the only one that thinks earnings may have PEAKED this cycle?

D

CONFIDENCE AT RECESSION LEVELS AS STOCKS NEAR ALL TIME HIGHS

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumer-confidence-falls-march-142120200.html
NEW YORK (AP) -- Consumers' confidence in the U.S. economy dropped in March amid higher gas prices, says a private research group. The decline comes after confidence rose to the highest level in a year during the previous month.
The Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 70.2, down from a revised 71.6 in February. Economists surveyed by FactSet expected a reading of 70.
Consumer confidence has made a recovery since it fell to an all-time low of 25.3 in February 2009. But the March reading is below the 90 reading that indicates a healthy economy. The index hasn't been near 90 since December 2007.
Economists watch consumer confidence closely because Americans' spending on things from clothing to health care accounts for about 70 percent of the nation's economic activity.

NO BOTTOM YET

And for stock prices maybe no top yet, but it could be closer than most think. We have worldwide Central Bank intervention, still home prices fall BUT gas prices rise along with anything associated with energy use.

D

 

Home Prices Hit a 10-Year Low

CNNMoney.com
The housing market started off the new year with a thud. Home prices dropped for the fifth consecutive month in January, reaching their lowest point since the end of 2002.

NO INFLATION

PROFIT AT GEN MILLS falls

"General Mills has said commodity costs have increased in the 10 percent to 11 percent range in fiscal 2012 due to higher prices for ingredients like grain."

HOUSING RECOVERY

TRANSPORTS DIVERGENCE NON CONFIRM

Worth watching, could be temporary

D

DAILY TICK DIVERGENCE

Warning of pending short term top, has been closely related to price for some time.

I feel the speculative fever among AVG investors is perking up, fear index is being buried and many of the players feel momo is easy to find and ride.

Even as a more challenging earnings season approaches.

D

"SURPRISE" JUMP IN YIELDS?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/surprise-increase-rates-credited-signs-121203848.html  Credit where credit is due it must be from "signs of economic recovery"

"Investors will be closely watching for another rise in interest rates when trading resumes on Monday, after the bond market’s sharpest move in nearly six months caught some traders by surprise last week.

Despite the sudden swing higher, most Wall Street strategists are playing down the danger of a surge in interest rates, which have been historically low because of demand for bonds from both the Federal Reserve and private investors wary of all but the safest assets.

The sell-off last week was caused by increasing signs that the economy might finally be gaining steam, lifting the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds to 2.31 percent on Friday, from 2.04 percent a week earlier. That was the biggest move in bond yields, which move inversely to bond prices, since October, when rates briefly topped 2.4 percent.

“It clearly caught everyone’s attention,” said Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist for Northern Trust in Chicago. “When something moves like this, by definition it’s a surprise.”

More data confirming that the economy is gaining momentum could come later this week. In addition to data expected on Tuesday and Wednesday on housing starts and existing home sales, the Commerce Department will disclose the latest figures for sales of new homes on Friday. And on Thursday, the Conference Board will announce its index of leading economic indicators for February. "

ECRI DATA POINTS TO ANOTHER RECESSION

http://www.financialsense.com/node/7866

EXPLORE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FEAR AND PRICE

LOOK at my beautiful 2009 bottom signal. *click to enlarge

D

BDI AND OIL DECOUPLED

click to enlarge

THERE IS NO PLAN "B"

The Fed is "turning the faucet, and nothing's coming out," says William Ford, a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. "I don't see any pluses on the plus side of the ledger ... But they're ignoring the strong negative effect that they're having. They're killing savers. Retirees are earning nothing on their life savings."

Read more: http://www.nwfdailynews.com/articles/hurting-43126-interest-economists.html#ixzz1pPO90fP1

POINT IS, we don't know where that point of no return is...for stocks. WHY would they quit this insane BS now..."in for penny, in for pound"....."in for a ton".....there is no turning back....even if its not working....because they have no other plan.....

30 YEAR BOND BULL NEAR AN END?

Bill Gross:

"..Under this plan, the Fed sold short-term debt and purchased long-term bonds in an effort to keep longer-term interest rates lower. At its meeting earlier this week, the Fed indicated that it didn't plan to extend the operation. "Yields have risen based upon the possibility that the Fed simply stops buying long-term bonds," he said. "If they do that, the question becomes, who is left?"
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/pimco-bill-gross-qe3-inflation-muted-growth-way-115229488.html

BDI UPDATED

There has been a steady decline since its recovery from 2009 bottom.This is only one measure of activity but it doesn't paint a picture of recovery in demand for raw materials

D

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RECOVERY?

BULL MARKET TARGET

IMHO, we have extensive "broadening top" pattern here and there is good chance we top in the zone I circled as we enter the 4th year of this bull market.

I also do not think we are in a new LONG TERM BULL, a secular move as we have only printed our way out, piled new debt on the old and with 0% rates there is little to compete with stocks.

A falling VIX pattern leaves a big selloff off the table for now. In the past we have ended bull markets with a single digit monthly VIX print, so below 15 is not unusual.

As a trader if you let four fundamental views cloud the market action and FED back drop, you will let opportunities pass you by. However, NOW is not the time to get aggressive long exposure IMHO, even if more upside is coming, because it will be the last 10% to the the top that you don't want to chase.

I think the FED and Central Banks can change market direction, but if all you do is hide the problems, try to PRINT YOUR WAY TO PROSPERITY, that will not unltimately work.

D

SCOTT FREE

http://motherjones.com/politics/2011/11/9-wall-street-execs-who-got-off-scot-free

MORE SUBTLE FED ACTION COMING?

“By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.” Do the Keynesians ever deeply, seriously contemplate perhaps Keynes’ greatest - and certainly most pertinent - monetary insight?
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10640

REALITY CHECK

http://market-ticker.org/

DANERICS ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTARY

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2012/03/elliott-wave-update-6-march-2012.html

Worth considering what he has to say.....have we been building up to the MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES? the gov't finance bubble.....thar she will blow as they all do with dire results.

Record amounts of money printing to avoid deflation and the consequences of malinvestments are harmful policies....and still now, they fight the correction tooth and claw, to preserve their supremecy and control

D

CORRECTION TIME

The vix has broken above 20 and a multi month downtrend, this correction more than likely has a bit more to run reaching highlighted minor support area. Today was the furst 90% (down) volume day of the year....this tells me the decline is going to muster some strength...a likely rebound attempt should follow for a few days before the sellers reload

Next potential targets are the rising 50 and flat line 200 below that, all would be normal targets and not upset the bullish apple cart.

But I continue to hear the same chants from my TV, "the avg US investors is under invested in US equities, this decline offers a grat chance to get in".....a few spx points from recent top looks like great entry?

Greece finds its way back into the news......market weakens, US $ strenghtens, OIL falls, gold falls....a pattern here.

Forced to play risk for returns, dividend plays are touted daily......that's alal well and good unless the DIVIDEND tax cut gets the heave ho like it might.

D

IMAGINE GOVERNMENT RUN MORE LIKE A BUSINESS?

http://citydesk.freedomblogging.com/2010/01/14/did-the-city-council-snub-the-broadmoors-ceo/1217/

"The president and CEO of the world-renowned Broadmoor resort said Thursday he’s moving forward with a plan to assemble a group of local executives to help the city deal with its financial problems now that the City Council has formally accepted his offer."

Read more: http://www.gazette.com/articles/broadmoor-92836-ceo-tackle.html#ixzz41xk1wJGb

HELL TO PAY

ECB launched another round $800B now reaching $1.3 TRILLION in it's version of the FED QE. IMHO there is good chance this along with continued rising balance sheets of the FED and continued 0% rate policy, that markets have a back stop, emboldening risk takers. There have been NO 90% volume days in 2012 as yet, after an historic period of oodles of them.

Since 2005 ECB and FED balance sheets have ballooned to over $6 TRILLION! This money has to go somewhere, the somewhere is into risk markets, commodities, $ carry trades, Bond purchases. The current environment errs on the side of the BULLS, but down the road (I know you're sick of hearing it) there will be HELL TO PAY for all this historic intervention which is causing awesome imbalances of its own. Be on the WRONG song of the trade and get buried.....the BEARS have been obliterated....too early and right equals wrong.

Calls for $1,000 AAPL stock with coming intro of APPLE TV and dominance of other products bring back the halcyon days of the tech bubble. YELP! stock with no earnings is instantly valued at $1B. Internet companies with no or little earnings doesn't seem to bother speculators one bit.

CHINKS in the armor would be LOW VOLUME, rates creeping above 2% on the US 10 year and gaining a foothold above that target. My contacts told me comments from Bernanke last week cause mortgage rates to tick up by almost 1/2%.

A flood out of Risk ON trade would flow money to? Stocks and out of ? Bonds where record amounts continued to reside and flow, even after a double in stock market!

OIL surged to $110 and now gas prices are HIGHEST EVER this time of year with Spring and Summer driving season ahead of us. GOLD got pounded $90 in just one trading day....volatility may have evaporated in the stock market but it is appearing in other areas.

My guess is the recent surge of intervention by ECB with $800 B in its LTRO scheme may do same there as what QE did here....why wouldn't it?

Upside surprise here in the US with a revised 3% GDP number shows our economy has recovered to some extent, it appears that jobs ARE being created, maybe not fast enough, maybe transitory, but jobs are being created.

But higher energy costs are hurting Consumers, and do filter down into economy as everything either uses petroleum or is shipped to market.

That worry down the line happens to be a big one, a piercing of the long running BOND BULL and Government Finance gambit, does the INFLATION GENIE get out of thebottle, and how many RISK PLAYERS would be flattened should certian trends they are long or short reverse while they inject record levels of LEVERAGE into system?

D

PROMISES

YELP! makes it's market debut today, offered $12-$14. Pops to $26 and settles at $24.75.

ONLY 13% of the company was offered, so todays price values YELP at near $1 Billion. $97 Million in sales, no profit but lots of promises.

D

PUT THIS IN YOUR PIPE AND SMOKE IT!

33% of Home "owners" are UNDER WATER in their mortgage. 22% of all sales were foreclosures, down from 26% last year....1% is NORMAL! 11 MILLION homes are worth LESS than they owe.

0% FED rate is KILLING savers, retired, fixed in come. 0% rate is hurting the value of the US $, a LOWER US $ DIRECTLY effects the price of OIL, and other commodities.

When Obama was asked why OIL and GAS prices were so high he said the tensions in Middle East and "recovering economy" were to blame.....NO mention of inflationary FED and ECB rate policies...yeah let's just tax the rich.....that means you!

D

ARTIFICIAL INSEMINATION

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/despite-stock-rally-most-investors-221546000.html
"TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman says fear of what happens after quantitative easing and other interventions run their course is what could be keeping retail investors from hopping aboard the stock market train.
Curiously, investor surveys, such as the one run by the American Association of Individual Investors, have reflected strongly bullish sentiment for going on nine straight weeks. But investors haven't been backing that up with their dollars.
In addition to parking their money in bonds, individuals have plowed $2.3 trillion into savings accounts over the past five years, which is 2.4 times the amount allocated to bonds.
"The bulls dancing to the central bank's music had better stay close to the door so they can exit quickly when their medicine becomes poison and the music stops," Biderman said in his weekly analysis. "While central bankers can print all the money they want, they cannot control where the money goes."

HOME PRICES CONTINUE TO FALL

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-prices-lowest-since-2002-153300856.html
National home prices fell 4% in the fourth quarter of 2011, putting them back at levels last seen in mid-2002.

That's the fifth consecutive annual loss and the biggest decline since 2008, when markets were in free fall and prices plummeted more than 18%.

Prices have been falling since they topped out in 2006, and are down 33.8% from their peak, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index.

"The housing market ended 2011 on a very disappointing note," said David Blitzer, spokesman for S&P. "While we thought we saw some signs of stabilization in the middle of 2011, it appears that neither the economy nor consumer confidence was strong enough to move the market in a positive direction as the year ended."

HIGHER GAS PRICES DON'T MATTER

Or do they?

The current prices we are paying for OIL are filtering all through the economy. Even airlines are now charging "FUEL SURCHARGES" and soon Freight companies will be also along with manufacturers who pay the freight for their products in a landed cost.

Food, furniture, just about everything requires a TRUCK, which runs on GAS to get the product or service to you. The HIGH OIL and energy costs and part of the same unintended or intended consequences of the current economic revivial package fashioned by 0% rate FED policy and unlimited Gov't deficit spending. BANKS cannot pay you much for deposits, leaving most with one alternative...RISK ASSETS....and IMHO this SCHEME is almost in itself responsible for the 2009 Bull MKT and is why I feel in the end it will fail.

We are also in Afghanistan for what? Violence has picked there since the burning of their holy book, and there is NO plan that will work and what is it we hope to accomplish?

A big country which is a pile of rocks, trying to be governed by a central gov't in kabal...ain't gonna happen. Obama foriegn policy is flawed and yet he keeps going, and American deaths pile up....$billions and billions keep going and going....

D

VELOCITY OF MONEY

$ TRILLIONS POURED INTO "ECONOMY"?  Evidently not, but it has been going into RISK ASSETS and we are certainly not getting much bang for the buck by this measure, the turnover of money in the economy

"RECESSION SEEMS INEVITABLE"

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/24/news/economy/double_dip_recession/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

ECRI INTERVIEW
http://www.businesscycle.com/news_events/news_details/5051

Bloomberg

Velocity of Money Dropping

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses our recession call, including the Weekly Leading Index and velocity of money.

MEASURING RISK

http://decisionpoint.com/TAC/NEWMAN.html

INSANE IN THE MEMBRANE

Futures show green open, wee Dow 13,000 and hold? Ponder.....2% 10 year yields show either extreme FEAR ad DEFLATION or manipulation. there was extreme manipulation after tech bubble burst, how'd that turn out? OH we got 3 years of fun and higher stocks, actually new all time highs by 2007....then how'd that turn out? NOW, we have HISTORICAL intervention, 0% rates guaranteed for another 3 years making it 6 YEARS of 0% FED rates for banks....how's this gonna turn out?

Gap earnings off 44%, but they will buy back $1B of stock? (boy they got that much cash?) and raise divi 11% (more cash and more profits for that too?)

STocks rallying, oil and gold because of WEAK $?  How's that coming $4 gasoline feel? DOES OIL above $108 begin to threaten ecocnomy?  YES

Traders talk: see 1350 SPX key level to HOLD for nice 2nd half of year. VIX falling to 18 level, after historic level of volatility last year, this year not even 1 90% volume day? Complacency?

Market due for push back that doesn't seem to come....

D

CAN CONSUMER SPENDING FUEL RECOVERY?

The latest data show retail sales rose 0.4 percent during the post-holiday season, while Macy's (NYSE:M - News) indicated strong sales growth in the past quarter.
But Whitney said such figures can be misleading in that the spending is being driven mostly by shoppers at opposite ends of the spectrum. The ones in the middle, she said, are finding it harder to be active consumers."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/middle-class-getting-pushed-banking-141920890.html

and
"Americans are going to be a lot more tightfisted with their tax refunds this year, with more people planning to save the cash they get back from Uncle Sam instead of spending it."



AND: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fitch-downgrades-greece-115003623.html

Fitch downgrades Greece

Fitch ratings agency downgrades Greece from CCC to C, indicating default 'highly likely'

NAT GAS HEAD SCRATCHER?

IS this what Nat Gas prices should do in a reviving economy?

D

TRANSPORTS DIVERGE "warning short term top"

SIGN OF THE TIMES?

Before the financial PANIC you could get 3,4 even 5% for a 2 yr treasury, now? .29%The economic recovery and the stock market rally are a sham and when IT TOPS, you better be OUT, good chance ALL the gains from 2009 will be WIPED OUT IMHO.

PROGRESS

Unintended consequences of a Greek bailout and worldwide Central Bank inflation? SOARING GOLD to new highs and OIL at almost $106. This will translate to Consumer inflation for goods and energy, gas at pump is already at historic highs for this time of year.

But, you know, I think the FED should keep doing what they are doing, keep rates at 0% even after it is more than obvious to any casual observer it is igniting asset inflation, if you own lots of stocks maybe that's a good thing. The avg American had their net worth mostly tied up in their homes, which won't appreciate in value for some time to come.

The rest of the world may be held accountable for deficit spending and that compared to GDP and ability to repay Bond holders, holders of the debt. HERE? we can just print more of the RESERVE CURRENCY, and don't have to make any significant efforts to trim gov't spending and deficits.

Commodities sniff an issue, and even as the players might be able to control rates for now, other things are out of their control, we have government and central bank intervention at a GLOBAL HISTORICAL SCALE never before seen.

D

"JAWS OF DEATH"

http://static.safehaven.com/pdfs/mchugh_2012_02_17.pdf

Greek debt settled?  Sell the news affair?

D

OIL THREATENS STOCK RALLY?

Yes and no. Oddly, there is a direct relationship to direction of stocks and price of oil, but at some point the price of OIL reaches a level that impacts consumers and helps cause a retreat in prices.

Oil this morning is above $105, premium gas nearing $4 again. Other than QE, there is little for the markets to hang their bullish hat on

D

“What if we all became Greeks?”

"The only problem is that many of those eurozone members are now looking at Greece and questioning whether they would be next. France’s Liberation said it best this week. “What if we all became Greeks?” the daily asked. “Is what is being imposed today on this pressured and humiliated country a foretaste of what will one day be prescribed for Italy, Portugal and, why not, France?”

http://www.athensnews.gr/issue/13483/53434

WEAKEST IN HISTORY

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm best read on the web each month.

D

"THOUGHTS"

http://www.johnmauldin.com/  you can subscribe on line for John's weekly letter.

"We are coming to the point in the United States when even the US government will no longer be able to borrow at very low long-term rates. That point is a few years off, and we have time to change paths; but as I have shown in previous letters, the longer we wait to get the deficit under control, the fewer choices we have and the more painful they are. NO country can run deficits the size we are currently running, along with unfunded deficits over four times the size of the economy and a growing overall debt burden, without consequences. At some point, investors in bonds will start wondering exactly what the process is by which they will be repaid. And what will the value of those future payments be?"

WE'RE IN ANOTHER MANIA....THANKS FOR NOTHING!

http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10629  Doug Noland
"Yet these types of policy-induced market runs become the devil’s playground for precarious Bubble excess. With the bears out of the way, stock prices become easily detached from underlying fundamentals. Markets become dislocated – and speculation runs roughshod. Markets will tend to climb walls of worry – and derivatives will tend to leverage market buying power. And a marketplace dominated by trend-following and performance chasing trading dynamics forces everyone in. It convinces most to disregard risk. Hedging is abandoned, and everyone gets comfortably positioned on the same side of the boat.

I look at the global backdrop and see all the makings for a major, major market top. It’s just impossible to know how far away – both in time and price – we are from such an outcome. I don’t envisage a new bull market – but instead see the same type of manic marketplace that brought us the 2010 “flash crash” and the 2011 10-day market shellacking. "

My sense is "enjoy it while it lasts". If you don't think the entire run from 2009 is courtesy of the Federal Reserve and worlds' central banks, better think again. With bond yields here and elsewhere below 2%, they have left you with FEW alternatives, and usually when the choices are slim and none trouble follows....this is NOT a normal functioning market when the people are forced to ALL go in one direction.

Remember who also OWNS the majority of the Bonds being bought at such generational lows in yields? F E D.....Are you making a 10 year committment at 2% or below? Are you buying the argument there is little inflation?

What has the FEDERAL RESERVE and GOVT policies brought us in the last 12 years? BOOMS AND BUSTS, BOOMS AND BUSTS....let's see we got ? BOOM now without the job growth it normally brings....and what follows? B U S T

It's going to be onehelluva BUST as well, because now we have government bonds invloved and the printing presses have been going NON STOP all over the world. The gov't finance bubble is going to POP.....and they might go down like dominos.

SAVERS have been hosed down like Greek rioters in the street. No ONE asked them about the bailouts, about the FEDS 6 YEAR 0% RATE POLICY.

The stock market has always been a place of ups and downs. In bull markets you just HOLD ON, as long as the trend continues, as the market always goes up over time. There is precedent however where a BEAR can last up to 16 years.
http://www.tradingonlinemarkets.com/Articles/Trend_Following_Strategies/History_of_Stock_Market_Cycles.htm

"The current market entered a long term secular bear market in 2000, and as history shows us, this will last at least until 2010, probably longer. As demonstrated above, during secular bear markets, the market trades in vicious cyclical bull and bear markets. Therefore, you have to be careful in the stocks you buy and be ready to sell them quickly should the market turn against you. Pull backs or cyclical bear markets will present opportunities to take new positions once they have run their course. It is also important to find value situations and play the hot sectors. We will need to be defensive in our positions and for those who are willing to take the risk, we may want to take some short positions.
Trading and investing is much easier in secular bull markets, and much more difficult during secular bear markets. Since we are in a secular bear market for the next 5 to 10 years, it is going to be much more difficult to be successful in your trading and investing.

Currently, the cyclical bull market that begin in early 2003 is close to being over and a new cyclical bear market will begun that will last another 2 to 3 years. This means that the best plays will be on the bearish side for the next couple years, that is, until the next cyclical bull begins."

If you followed above advice and enterred markets in 2003 you exited a bit early but out by 2007......at 2009 bottom add 3 years you get? 2012.....PIGS GET?

Now IMHO we are STILL in a SECULAR (long term) BEAR MKT? WHAT???!!! ONLY gov't and FED actions, of historical nature have both avoided the inevitable corrections to markets and economic excesses and prolonged a REAL RECOVERY.

Are we headed for an historic BLOW OFF TOP? I think so....look around and see what is being done to stave off what is just around the corner, major defaults......in Greece bond holders are happy just to get BACK 50% on the $ or Kroner or whatever its called.

GOLD refuses to give up the ghost....it enterred a TRUE BULL MKT in early 2000 when the FED games began and we have had 2 bulls and 2 bears since then....and they fight it even more now.

And they say "we can withdraw the liquidity" no problem.......with a market doubling from the lows, all these calls of economic expansion, job growth....corporate profits.....why then continuation of 0% rates for another 3 years?

Is a BOND MARKET accident waiting to happen? What if yields begin to rise? and get away from the open manipulation?

US deficits don't seem to be much of a problem.....with attention elsehwere, even to Japan where they have the worst ration to GDP of any country....it's still seen as safe haven...they still fight DEFLATION since 80's.

In for a penny, in for a pound, THEY can't stop now.....the lie grows and grows.....there is NO free market.

Some companies offer a program of "guaranteed" returns...as high as 8% a year....and you ALWAYS get the wins, never the losses.....I am guessing you would have to ANNUATIZE the money and get paid monthly for the rest of your life or sacrifice your gains....you get paid as long as the company issuing these promises stay solvent.

NOPE, I don't know where top will be or when it will come, but I'm pretty confident because of how we got to here, that this seemingly risk free market is going to reverse and when it does....retrace most of all of its gains and end at new lows.....all will be exposed....my hope is the fabric of our society can hold together....for that we should pray.

D

EXHAUSTION MOVE?

Yesterdays breakout from the trading range is one of 2 things, a breakout move leading to another leg higher or a fakeout exhaustion move. For the latter prices must turn down hard today.

D

KEY REVERSAL IN APPL LEADS MARKET DOWN

One key point to make about todays market "selloff" is that it lacked little vigor, only 66% down volume, by far not a true conviction that market is ready to change trend in the ST. Let's see if any follow through and any pickup in volume.

SPX 1350 area was good excuse to take profits.

WHAT IS THE YIELD ON THE US 10 YEAR TELLING US?

FOR THOSE WHO ENJOY ELLIOTT WAVE

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2012/02/elliott-wave-update-14-february-2012.html

Daneric EWT site...."I believe we are topping"

D

"FED SHOULD HEED LESSONS OF PAST"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-heed-lessons-1920s-grant-155600555.html

"The Fed is not content to let interest rates find their levels, they must repress them, and they are not content to let housing prices find their levels, they seek to intervene to prop them up," Grant said in a radio interview on "Bloomberg Surveillance" with Ken Prewitt and Tom Keene. "The results of all this intervention is not to cure what ails us, but prolongs the symptoms of what distresses us."

MOODY'S DOWNGRADES EUROPE

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Moody's cut the credit ratings of six European countries on Monday amid continued anxiety over the continent's debt crisis and its sluggish economy.
Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain were all downgraded, while three other countries -- Austria, France and the United Kingdom -- had the outlook on their current Aaa ratings changed to "negative."
http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/13/markets/moodys_europe_downgrade/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

This should be good for another 200 SPX points, don't worry  what ILL can come from 6 years of 0% rates?

D

RESISTANCE ZONE

ZOMBIE BANKING SYSTEM

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-warn-long-term-perils-130602365.html
"The central bank intends for banks to use the money to lend to businesses and support the economy. That is especially crucial in Europe, where banks, rather than capital markets, are the main source of credit for corporations.

But analysts suspect banks are using much of the cash to buy government bonds. That would help explain why interest rates on Spanish and Italian bonds have plunged in recent weeks.

Borrowing from the central bank at 1 percent and using the money to buy bonds paying many percentage points more is a nice trade for the banks — as long as the issuers remain solvent. And it raises the chances that Italy or Spain will be able to continue servicing their debt, by holding down their interest payments."

**Problem is, the banks have this "safe trade" and then they don't make loans to companies who need them to expand and hire. And the FED has told everyone they will hold down rates at 0% for another 3 years....that will be almost 6 years of 0% rates......but don't worry that couldn't possibly cause problems.....

D

MEGAPHONE TOP?

http://www.trending123.com/patterns/reverse_symmetrical_triangle.html

"Description

A Megaphone Top is a relatively rare formation and is also known as a Broadening Top. Its shape is opposite to that of a Symmetrical Triangle. The pattern develops after a strong advance in a stock price and can last several weeks or even a few months."  or maybe a decade?

D

EXTREME READINGS GET BOUGHT

WHile the avg Joe was putting cash into his pillows, the smart money was all over these extreme readings and was buying the bottom...especially after the FED signalled not on my watch.

IMHO, we have not reached the top of this move. This may only end with a BLOWOFF TOP, a capitulation from the shorts.

It may confound historians that are waiting for the LITTLE GUY to buy the top, this market has been moving without confirming volume, the little guy may have bailed for last time and is not coming back

D

STOCK RALLY IN TERMS OF "REAL" MONEY

The rallys you see around the world are all mirages.....

D

LONG TERM CHART

Greece: One step forward, two steps back

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/10/markets/greece/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

How rediculous is this?

D

LACK OF

The market is just hanging around, and as of the current market conditions, no significant sell off should be at hand without a large pick up in desire to sell, not just from lack luster demand.

Why is this occurring? Most of the market participants think the FED has fixed the game, telegraphed policy, 0% rates for another 3 years knocked the snot out of volatility.

We are at decent overhead resistance, for now it is just causing a stall. 3 years into the cyclical bull market, however may not be the time to become totally complacent. We will be on the hunt for any meaningful pick up in the desire to sell.

D

WEEKEND POST "ALIVE AND KICKING"

With the advance decline line making new ALL TIME HIGHS, if we are in a new Bear Market, this would have occurred only a few times in history with that detail.

Short term we are at resistance and overbought, so a blow back is on the horizon. But there is no indication YET, it will be a serious decline or end of advance as urge to SELL has slacked and without a pick up there and in VIX, it's still Bull game on.

Advance from 09 lows is now in 3rd year, avg bull cycle time frame, but the usual suspects are not in place for THE TOP. You have to play the odds, nothing is 100%.

With the economy in recovery mode, stock market has doubled off the lows of 2009, the Banking system seems resuscitated, why does the FED continue their 0% rate policy?

With any other game in town shut down, the risk markets have little competition, manipulated engineered markets rarely turn out well.
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10627
"Chairman Bernanke was forthcoming yesterday when he stated that loose monetary policy distorts the economy and leads to inflationary pressures. I’ll contend that the world would today be a safer place if “easy money” in fact always led to inflationary pressures. In reality, some of history’s most notorious Bubbles developed in an atypical environment comprising loose monetary policy and well-anchored consumer price inflation. One can look to the seemingly sanguine pricing backdrops in the U.S. during the “Roaring Twenties” and Japan in the eighties as cases in point. In both circumstances, a misdiagnosis of the Credit and financial backdrop was instrumental in policymakers remaining too loose for too long - and unwittingly accommodating precarious Bubble dynamics."


D

SATURDAY CHART

Recent US $ weakness has help fuel a low volume rally that is challenging 1370 bull mkt highs. A break and hold of previous highs could lead to an attack on the ALL TIME HIGHS of 2007. Hard to view current action as Bearish, or occurring within a BEAR MKT.

The story of recovery and job growth are saturating the media. What isn't is the exponential growth in money printing and backstopping. What FED and Central Banks have tripled the money supply in an attempt to paper over the worldwide crisis, and in many ways save the very perpetrators of the crime.

The VIX continues to fade for now, so we will watch for increased volatility. 10 YEAR yields still cannot manage to gain above 2%. Housing prices continue to fall year over year even with historical low mortgage rates, no recovery in price means no recovery for all those underwater in home value.

Excess Reserves not getting into economy....the REAL PAIN many feel is being masked...

D

YOU GOT YOURS?

We have an "I got mine" society. Most do not take the time to see what is REALLY going on. MAIN STREAM MEDIA cept 60 min cannot be trusted, spend little time deciphering the truth. In the meantime, on the streets and pavements, the AVG American is waking up to the truth and the games being played. GO BACK to observing the constitution and make it a level playing field for all....who can do that? DIF FACES....SAME GAME....MONEY TALKS

CHANGE? where for art thou


D

BDI AT HISTORIC LOWS "RECOVERY?"

BEHIND THE BANK EARNINGS NUMBERS "BANKS DEPLETING EARNINGS BACKSTOP"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/banks-depleting-earnings-backstop.html
"The rainy-day funds that U.S. banks have been tapping to boost their earnings could soon begin to dry up, and that doesn't bode well for bank profits.

Many banks have been "releasing" reserves against bad loans since the worst of the crisis passed and the economy began recovering. That money flows to the bottom line, helping some banks boost earnings at a time when lending and trading profits have been soggy.

But with loan-loss cushions now receding toward precrisis levels, some analysts doubt banks can afford to keep up the pace of reserve releases. Lowering reserve releases could increase pressure on profits that are being hit by slow economic growth, low interest rates and tighter rules.

The releases are "masking some horrible operating performance," said Mike Mayo, a banking analyst for Crédit Agricole Securities. "The bottom line is your earnings power is decreasing."

MISINFORMATION SOCIETY. LET'S CHEER EMPLOYMENT DATA?

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=201459  full post by Denninger.

The story of the reach of GS again almost sounds like fantasy...extreme point of view until you let it sink in, and NO arrests in the scandal of century.

GOOD reason VOLUME doesn't accompany this mkt higher....the players can have fun on paper....but the populace has been stunned out of the market, or at least to follow it like they used to.

WHAT IS a breakout to new highs without confirming volume?

All those DROPPED OFF THE LIST, not finding opportunity as it is presented by THEIR data..have no voice. "FED DIDN'T SEE THIS DATA..." my ASS they didn't....

If all is going in right direction, normalize rates......can or will the mkt do it for them?  FED "we have all the tools to take the liquidity out of market, we would be SELLERS....." yeah

USING BULLISH PER CENT INDEX

*click to enlarge

The Goldman Sachs subprime scandal

**Why do I bring this up again? Not ONE (1, single, nada) person has been made to pay for the worst financial crisis in our history....not 1. And at the same time our own Congress can't put forth legislation to make it illegal for them and ONLY them to profit from "INSIDER INFORMATION". Is it any wonder to see why their approval rating is lower than our Presidents?

http://www.thecasualtruth.com/story/goldman-sachs-subprime-scandal

The Goldman Sachs subprime scandal

Wednesday 21st April 2010

Wednesday 21st April 2010

Read a 30-second background on:

The US sub-prime mortgage crisis explained

Wall Street kingpin Goldman Sachs was last week charged with investor fraud by America’s financial referee, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The shock announcement rattled nerves across the stock markets, with Goldman’s own share price falling by 13%.
But the bank has come out firing, saying the charges have no basis in fact or law and it will vigorously defend both the firm and its reputation.
The alleged fraud occurred in 2007 – about the time the US housing market was faltering.
The SEC says Goldman Sachs advised two of its clients to accept a US$1 billion bet over sub-prime mortgage bonds that they knew were going to fail.
They say Goldman did not tell the clients that the person they were betting against, John Paulson, had actually fixed the odds in his favour.

CHALLENGER REPORTS JOB CUTS ON THE RISE

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/02/news/economy/jobs_challenger/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

LOW RATES ACTUALLY HURT RECOVERY SAYS PIMCO's GROSS

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-low-rates-killing-credit-191230965.html
"The Federal Reserve's zero-interest-rate policy is hampering economic recovery by discouraging bank lending, Pimco bond titan Bill Gross said in an analysis.

For banks, a healthy lending environment exists where they can borrow at low rates in the short term and lend at significantly higher rates over the long term, a situation that creates a profit through a positively sloped yield curve ."

And from FED PLOSSER
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/plosser-slams-feds-2014-low-133821640.html

"GLADWYNE, Pennsylvania (Reuters) - A top Federal Reserve official sharply criticized the U.S. central bank's decision last week to telegraph ultra low interest rates for nearly three more years, saying on Wednesday the move undermined confidence and caused confusion.
 The Fed's policy-setting committee, citing a bleak outlook for the fragile economic recovery, said last week it expected to keep rates "exceptionally low" at least through late 2014. The forecast, which was contingent on economic conditions, pushed the target date some 18 months later than a previous forecast, and it sparked a rally in stocks and bonds."

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RECOVERY?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence  The level is about HALF what it is normally this far into "RECOVERY".
The worldwide money printing by the Central Banks is floating the stock markets in a sea of freshly printed fiat in an attempt to never have to pay the piper.

The FED comes out and says for another 3 years rates will stay at 0%, meaning savers and conservative investors who RELY on returns to live have only ONE PLACE to put down their chips.

And in the end, the HOARD of players in the bond market at SKIMPY rates and those in stocks will be trapped. AS it is, there is little volume outside of the manipulators, the HFT's.

WE have OFFICIALLY 2.8 GDP, but 3.5 is needed to create jobs in a meaningful way. The unemployment drop is mostly from long time unemployed just giving up, or settling for part time or jobs that pay 50% of what they used to make, if lucky to find one.

WE have an engineered economy, one that evidently cannot stand on its own 2 feet, or interest rates would float in an open and free market.

Manipulation, and regulation can work for a time, but in the end, I am afraid the end game is being made much more dramatic, details to come. "Castles made of sand, slip into the sea, eventually".

D